Weekly Poll: Even After The Ugly Red Candle, SPY +1.5% YTD. Where To Now?

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

1200 <i>next week</i>? That's a pretty bold forecast.

Anyways, this poll has been voted overwhelmingly bearish. So my question is: Does anyone know/remember previous 'coming week prediction' polls here on ET? Does anyone know/remember if the market ended up going in the direction we thought it would... or if it moved the other way? I'm just trying to check if these polls are a useful sentiment indicator, or if they are worthless.

Worthless.

Did I tell you they are worthless? Rearden, you became inadvertently a friend of mine because you tried to help someone I care about. Now, you have been a trader for awhile, ditch all that crap and read your charts! PM me for anything else.

 

[bettles]

I voted bullish for this coming week, but now that I read Cramer is bullish, I may need to reconsider, since I consider him a contrary indicator. So maybe we in fact won't see new highs this coming week again. Could take a few weeks for that to happen instead.

 

[shortie]

i have run this poll for almost a year but have not looked at the data in any detail. i believe i have the data for most of the polls (for ~Sunday nights) but the numbers are spread out through many files on my machines. eventually, i will get to it and post the data on ET.

here is the sample from Nov correction. the dates are from Friday when/before poll starts. the poll starts either Fri evening or Sat morning. i record the data Sunday night.

Oct-29
SPY Next Week?
Bullish 5 17.86%
Flat 4 14.29%
Bearish 14 50.00%
I don't have an opinion on market direction 3 10.71%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself 2 7.14%
Total: 28 votes 100%


Nov-05
Bullish 7 31.82%
Flat 6 27.27%
Bearish 5 22.73%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one 4 18.18%
Total: 22 votes 100%

Nov-12

Bullish 7
Flat 2
Bearish 13


Nov 19
Bullish 12 60.00%
Flat 4 20.00%
Bearish 2 10.00%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one 2 10.00%
Total: 20 votes 100%

Nov-26
Bullish 7 43.75%
Flat 3 18.75%
Bearish 6 37.50%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one 0 0%
Total: 16 votes 100%

individual data points through Jul 2010 can be found here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...190863&perpage=30&highlight=poll&pagenumber=2

 

[Rearden Metal]

Awesome work, Shortie! In fact, this is the best stuff you've ever posted. After reviewing the partial data you've just supplied, I now believe ET polls are in fact a useful contrarian indicator. Thanks!

 

[ksmetana]

Get your shopping list ready, this sell off is temporary.

US Stocks trading lower due to unrest in EGYPT???

QUICK, SELL TECH STOCKS!!!! SELL US BANKS! SELL US RETAILERS! People are selling stocks that have absolutely nothing to do with Egypt simply due to the herd nature of the markets.

The only way this news is substantial, is if this unrest spreads to other countries. All you saw, were people protecting themselves. The VIX popped because people bought protection. The news WILL settle.

After a bar like that, where we closed below the 20 day, you have to think we trade a bit lower. There was nothing bullish in the price action. Though, people want in the US equities market. Worst case scenario in my eyes, S&P produces a wick down somewhere near the 50 day, but we do not close anywhere near it.

1271.76 = support one
1260 area = support two

We'll trade to 1271.76 with ease, things will get interesting around 1260.

 

[shortie]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

Awesome work, Shortie! In fact, this is the best stuff you've ever posted. After reviewing the partial data you've just supplied, I now believe ET polls are in fact a useful contrarian indicator. Thanks!

i am glad i could pay back a little for your ZSL trade a few months back

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from shortie:

i have run this poll for almost a year but have not looked at the data in any detail. i believe i have the data for most of the polls (for ~Sunday nights) but the numbers are spread out through many files on my machines. eventually, i will get to it and post the data on ET.

here is the sample from Nov correction. the dates are from Friday when/before poll starts. the poll starts either Fri evening or Sat morning. i record the data Sunday night.

Oct-29
SPY Next Week?
Bullish 5 17.86%
Flat 4 14.29%
Bearish 14 50.00%
I don't have an opinion on market direction 3 10.71%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself 2 7.14%
Total: 28 votes 100%


Nov-05
Bullish 7 31.82%
Flat 6 27.27%
Bearish 5 22.73%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one 4 18.18%
Total: 22 votes 100%

Nov-12

Bullish 7
Flat 2
Bearish 13


Nov 19
Bullish 12 60.00%
Flat 4 20.00%
Bearish 2 10.00%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one 2 10.00%
Total: 20 votes 100%

Nov-26
Bullish 7 43.75%
Flat 3 18.75%
Bearish 6 37.50%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one 0 0%
Total: 16 votes 100%

individual data points through Jul 2010 can be found here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...190863&perpage=30&highlight=poll&pagenumber=2

There was no "correction" in November !!! If you shorted the absolute top and got out at the absolute bottom there was a 4% change. That 4% quickly disappeared within days.

Correct terminology would be there was a "retracement" in the middle of a strong bull move up. Comparing to right now, a 4% drop from the top is around 1250 which is a major support level.

Can recent history repeat ? Well, last time we retraced to 1177 we had Fly Down gloating about his short call and predicting a major correction. We also had a lot of CNBC types humming and hawwing about corrections. Sounds eerily familiar to now. Fading those two sources is usually a good idea. Timing is the only question to me. Will we go down before we go up, or simply consolidate and go up ?

I believe if you trade by sector none of this matters one bit. Financials haven't gone anywhere in 14 months.

 

[shortie]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

...

I believe if you trade by sector none of this matters one bit. Financials haven't gone anywhere in 14 months.

you still need to figure out how the particular sectors will relate to each other

 

[Petsamo]

Nine_Ender is back ?! I figured he'd be back. He's a salesman, therefore a liar.

 

[shortie]

1286.50 +4.00

short tomorrow's pop?

on friday the longs crapped their pants and did not want to hold over the weekend full of Egyptian news.

therefore, on monday we had a bounce - that is natural, as the sell-off could be considered overdone short-term.

we still have a lot of donwside potential because -2% from friday is really nothing if the top is of any significance. we may as well start dropping as soon as Tuesday.