Weekly Poll: Do We Ignore Black Filled Candles On Weekly Chart?

SPY Next Week?

  • Bullish

    Votes: 9 42.9%

  • Flat

    Votes: 5 23.8%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 5 23.8%

  • I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Total voters
    21
  • Poll closed .
S

shortie

notice that we have black filled candles on weekly charts for major sectors: QQQQ, XLE, SPX . this is one sign that December rally may be losing steam. by itself this type of candle is not a great predictor of the market tops. but the sentiment is generally very bullish so that could limit any rally into the next short week.

how is my analysis? does anybody have better prognosis?
 
Those bulls better be careful with those longs. Take profits if you get them.
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GDX went into the crapper shortly after I took profits. It's not subject as much to these EOQ/EOY trades being done to make the year look good. That's a bearish sign.
The dollar index rallied nicely pretty much all week. Another one.
Elsewhere, the vol indices are super low in comparison to where they've been. From a contrarian perspective, bearish.
IV is way down on options. No one is expecting anything to happen in the next two weeks. On this, I'd agree, but January should be interesting.
Trends on all the major indices are up and unbroken. That's a bullish sign.
Bearish, but not expecting much action. I'm expecting a slump in the first half of the week, and then nothing after that.
 
Based on this weeks action, we are set for an explosion upwards. 1270 is very high chance of reaching next week, maybe 90% up to 100% certainty.
 
Bullish:
1. seasonality into year end
2. absence of news into year end (may explain #1)
3. we are in a multi-month uptrend

Bearish:
1. with so many bulls, who will do the buying?
2. upward momentum loses steam (hence dark candles)
3. market is overbought


thestreet.com poll:
Bullish 68.29% 84 votes
Bearish 21.13% 26 votes
Neutral 10.56% 13 votes
 
Quote from shortie:

Bullish:
1. seasonality into year end
2. absence of news into year end (may explain #1)
3. we are in a multi-month uptrend

Bearish:
1. with so many bulls, who will do the buying?
2. upward momentum loses steam (hence dark candles)
3. market is overbought


thestreet.com poll:
Bullish 68.29% 84 votes
Bearish 21.13% 26 votes
Neutral 10.56% 13 votes
More...

Plenty of potential buyers out there so your #1 Bearish is not relevant at all. People long bonds need to move their money somewhere else. Its a shitload of money that needs some purpose.

I'm Bullish and Bearish. Great trades available on both sides right now. Grab good entry points and liquidate large gains without delay. Sector based plays are important.
 
my thinking is that the market will be stuck in a tiny rage until beginning of 2011. the signs to short are all soft. the wildly bullish sentiment and VIX going down the crapper don't mean as much during this time of the year because they tend to be exaggerated due to the happy holiday spirit or whatever.
 
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