Weekly Poll: Buy Dips or Sell Rallies During Expr Week?

SPY Next Week?

  • Bullish

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Flat

    Votes: 4 12.9%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 16 51.6%

  • I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one

    Votes: 1 3.2%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
Quote from tradingjournals:

They explained today rise by better than expected retail sale, and some other BS, but now that the market is red, they are putting some other bull crap.

I believe that now is the time I would buy, when it is red and everyone is heading to the exit.

How are possible explanations they would give if market rises tomorrow:

1. Replay the retail sales news
2. Quote of some european politicians or decisions about Ireland.
3. AAPL: this is always easy to use. Some news from AAPL (and there is always news from AAPL) such as a new service from AAPL or something about their old gadgets and holidays.
4. Santas buying their costumes early this year.
5. Americans buying more turkeys this year.
6. Add yours below.
More...

Everyone headed to the exits ? Not nearly yet we're still very close to the highs of this year's trading range.

Option expiry week often has a built in quality of countering any large moves in the market preceding it. This is because large institutions that have sold call options ( in a bull run ) want some of their money back; or at the least, they won't let the stock run up anymore.

Ireland can only be bearish to the market. With the foreclosure issues in the US and what happened to Greece etc ( eg flash crash ) there is no doubt the market will drop on any required bailout for Ireland. Perhaps this is the best indication of a possible top when people are claiming bad news might raise the market higher lol.

Here's my idea. Don't go long now. Wait for the pullback, its coming. My best guess is tommorrow. Be ready. If we somehow muddle through Tuesday and Wednesday fairly flat or slightly up, then its 90% chance the market sells off Thursday morning. Seen this happen on option expiry week many times.
 
Got a buy signal on DX today, which is not usually bullish for the stock indices. I actually put in a small order for UUP tomorrow. Never directly dabbled in the dollar in any form, so this is a new one for me.
GLD not quite at sell yet, GDX also hanging tougher than I would expect. Interesting stuff going on out there.
 
Quote from Nine_Ender:

Everyone headed to the exits ? Not nearly yet we're still very close to the highs of this year's trading range.

Option expiry week often has a built in quality of countering any large moves in the market preceding it. This is because large institutions that have sold call options ( in a bull run ) want some of their money back; or at the least, they won't let the stock run up anymore.

Ireland can only be bearish to the market. With the foreclosure issues in the US and what happened to Greece etc ( eg flash crash ) there is no doubt the market will drop on any required bailout for Ireland. Perhaps this is the best indication of a possible top when people are claiming bad news might raise the market higher lol.

Here's my idea. Don't go long now. Wait for the pullback, its coming. My best guess is tommorrow. Be ready. If we somehow muddle through Tuesday and Wednesday fairly flat or slightly up, then its 90% chance the market sells off Thursday morning. Seen this happen on option expiry week many times.
More...

I appreciate your comments, and sound explanations.

I am however going to go long for the bounce, particularly if SPY can get to 117. I view it as a game.

With regard to Ireland, once EUR/USD start rallying, Ireland will agree to a deal. A falling EUR/USD is good for them to do a better deal. So when rally takes place, they will accept.
 
If you come across breaking news on Ireland or explanation of a rapid move in EUR/USD, post it here immediately.

Update: EUR/USD now at 1.3480. These Irish do not have the fuel like down at the cap. They need to eat more beans to fuel their engines.
 
Schaeffer's Recap: "Market Recap: DJIA Plummets 178 Points on Macroeconomic Mayhem"

:D
a small correction and we get panicky headlines. does anybody really believe that going up ~20% without a pullback is normal? i think the bulls should be happy here.
 
I bet Schaeffer was bullish at the latest top. When we have the rise tomorrow/thursday, I would predict he would send some green related material/explanations.

His messages would however be effective for him, since people will remember them as it goes with their thinking and also it is "supported" by the hindsight market. It will not occur to them that what the guy is saying is the past, and his words will also make them forget what he may have said earlier such as at the latest top.

My conclusion: to be a followed expert you need to talk about the past, and you need to be wrong, otherwise the majority of the people would not remember you. In this case, I would bet he is not doing it by design, but by stupidity.
 
Quote from shortie:

Schaeffer's Recap: "Market Recap: DJIA Plummets 178 Points on Macroeconomic Mayhem"

:D
a small correction and we get panicky headlines. does anybody really believe that going up ~20% without a pullback is normal? i think the bulls should be happy here.
More...

I believe we will drop again to <= 1150 area just on continued profit taking, Some sectors didn't participate much today. Any really bad news this will "crash" down to 1100. Can you say "Ireland" ? Or China raising interest rates ?

I would say today's drop was fairly moderate given the amount of bad news that was reported last 24 hours. I'd be surprised if we are done but being options week I expect a volatile uncertain trajectory.

ps Wasn't it ironic given the number of bearish posts others have put up the last two months that it was me that predicted a big drop today ? Just enough bullish action lately to drive even the most bearish investors to grow uncertain of their outlook. Then boom the big boys pounce dumping stock as rapidly as they can trying to keep the drop orderly and modest to get the best prices possible. Has retail joined in yet ?
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

I bet Schaeffer was bullish at the latest top. When we have the rise tomorrow/thursday, I would predict he would send some green related material/explanations.

His messages would however be effective for him, since people will remember them as it goes with their thinking and also it is "supported" by the hindsight market. It will not occur to them that what the guy is saying is the past, and his words will also make them forget what he may have said earlier such as at the latest top.

My conclusion: to be a followed expert you need to talk about the past, and you need to be wrong, otherwise the majority of the people would not remember you. In this case, I would bet he is not doing it by design, but by stupidity.
More...

A lot of these analysts are late to the party and tend to give advice that would be useful day/weeks ( maybe months/years ) earlier.

My main weakness in the past has been listening to others and not just my instincts developed over years of observing and participating in markets. There are some good people out there but they are the minority. ET is the same there is some pretty silly advice on here at times I don't know why I concern myself with the inaccuracies its more important just to focus on good information and people.
 
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