Weekly Poll: Blow-Off Top Then Crash Or Crash Right Away?

[shortie]

The expiration week could make the overdue sell-off into a crash. Or is it going to be a snoozer week? It is hard for me to see this thing going even higher but nothing will surprise me.

Many important stocks are lagging this rally. Which way will this inconsistency resolve? will the laggards catch up with the market or will the indexes drop?

I think these weak stocks strongly suggest that the rally is fake.

Thoughts?

 

[shortie]

some random important stocks that are weak. i am sure you can easily find more. i did not look very hard for these.

 

[wiesman02]

once again people.... Quit trying to predict a damn top. Currently, we're trending up, so just ride the damn trend. Soon as we see a signal that a reversal will occur, like say a huge down day on heavy volume indicating fear / panic / massive profit taking, then we can discuss a top.

Until then, technically, there's no sign of a top.

 

[the1]

The market is going to keep grinding higher. Why must there be a crash? Maybe the market will reverse and trend down for a few years? I highly doubt we're going to see anything like 2008/2009 for a long ass time. The only thing you need to know at the moment is....Surf's Up.

 

[the1]

You're always going to find laggards in any bull market. It's rather meaningless. BAC can get thrown out of your list and MSFT has been lagging the market for a decade. The rest are large cap tech stocks that have matured and seen their 15-minutes of fame. The baton has been handed to a different group of stocks like AAPL, BIDU, WYNN, WLT, just to name a few. Every new bull market produces new industry leaders while the mature get left behind. Two words -- Surf's Up.

Quote from shortie:

some random important stocks that are weak. i am sure you can easily find more. i did not look very hard for these.

 

[the1]

We actually saw that already on that 1000 point intra-day drop on the Dow. It's been my experience that a move like that in very meaningful and typically triggers a new direction but in this case it seems like an isolated even of one huge company just liquidating their hand all at once. The market has shrugged it off and continues moving higher.

"Quit trying to predict a damn top. Currently, we're trending up, so just ride the damn trend." ----->>> Sometimes trading is just that easy!

Quote from wiesman02:

once again people.... Quit trying to predict a damn top. Currently, we're trending up, so just ride the damn trend. Soon as we see a signal that a reversal will occur, like say a huge down day on heavy volume indicating fear / panic / massive profit taking, then we can discuss a top.

Until then, technically, there's no sign of a top.

 

[trefoil]

The advance continues to be nice and steady, just slow enough to give the bears hope, the better to continue their processing into ground chuck.
I'm beginning to lose count of all those resistance levels that were supposed to hold us back.
So far this year, the correct trade into the end of August was to be in bonds, and since then it's been to be in stocks.
Gold did have that interesting day on Thursday. If that proves to be a short term top, it will be time to start getting concerned. There was a bit of resistance around 128 on GLD, so that should act as support. That will be the level to watch.

 

[Nexen]

This market has all the characteristics of a bull market.

Sure there can be retracements, all buying opportunities.

The SP500 has a pronounced inverse head and shoulder and price is breaking out of the neck with conviction, it even dipped a little to prove to you it turned the neck into support.

Only idiots are calling a reversal because only idiots fade strong trends.

 

[shortie]

Quote from the1:

You're always going to find laggards in any bull market. It's rather meaningless. BAC can get thrown out of your list and MSFT has been lagging the market for a decade. The rest are large cap tech stocks that have matured and seen their 15-minutes of fame. The baton has been handed to a different group of stocks like AAPL, BIDU, WYNN, WLT, just to name a few. Every new bull market produces new industry leaders while the mature get left behind. Two words -- Surf's Up.

all these stocks had no problem making new highs in Apr 2010 together with the market. now most of them are having trouble breaking summer levels.

this rally is different at least from Mar-Apr 2010 rally and this difference is not in bulls' favor i believe.

maybe the difference is due to the weak dollar this time. maybe somebody could comment on this.

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from shortie:

all these stocks had no problem making new highs in Apr 2010 together with the market. now most of them are having trouble breaking summer levels.

this rally is different at least from Mar-Apr 2010 rally and this difference is not in bulls' favor i believe.

maybe the difference is due to the weak dollar this time. maybe somebody could comment on this.

Shortie: I think you are a good thinker. Look into the direction of the dollar. The recent move may have distorted things.

I personally need to make sure I understand why the dollar fell so hard and so fast. Until this is understood with "certainty", I think stocks are not understood (at least by me) with reasonable "certainty".

Could someone explain the dollar's move?