Weekly Poll: After Mubarak Shoved +4% Candle Up Bear's Butt, What Happens Now?

[ElCubano]

where is that guy? that used to say "100% free upside money" when the market was tanking....we need this cat back or is he one of the top callers?

 

[shortie]

Quote from ElCubano:

where is that guy? that used to say "100% free upside money" when the market was tanking....we need this cat back or is he one of the top callers?

the market has indeed gained >100% by today EOD:

US STOCKS-S&P rises, doubles its 2009 low
Reuters - Rodrigo Campos - 1 hour ago

US Stocks Close Higher; S&P 500 More Than Doubles Its Financial-Crisis Low
Wall Street Journal - Jonathan Cheng - 1 hour ago

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from tradingjournals:

We have had two selloffs from 57.93 level. The 1.5% window given by my models, at beginning of last week, for a qqqq topping was [57.93, 58.80]. I missed logging in at end of day Friday to buy puts. I hope we will not have a down gap at open on Monday---so I may buy some puts at favorable prices.

Does anyone know the highest leverage one can get on the short side while paying no/least time premium?

I fail to see the point in shorting one of the strongest sectors in the market while it is clearly trending up. A better trade would be long financials in 2011. Its not hard to find modest valuations in this sector.

 

[shortie]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

I fail to see the point in shorting one of the strongest sectors in the market while it is clearly trending up. A better trade would be long financials in 2011. Its not hard to find modest valuations in this sector.

Shorting an ETF is attractive because one is not exposed to a huge downside risk (e.g. 1987 or Flash Crash). One should not compare shorting QQQQ with going Long a financial stock.

Of course in the present market there is no downside risk :eek:

 

[jax88]

I think a pull back to 1316 (ES) is coming. Based on today's action, had a decent amount of contracts still holding short going into the close. We'll see.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from shortie:

Shorting an ETF is attractive because one is not exposed to a huge downside risk (e.g. 1987 or Flash Crash). One should not compare shorting QQQQ with going Long a financial stock.

Of course in the present market there is no downside risk :eek:

Buddy, you are so wrong. Going short you are exposed to important upside risk. Do not think going short is inherently safer then going long, in fact often it is riskier if you have limited capital.
And in a strong bull market, it is often problematic to be short.

In fact, many people have experienced this upside risk this month as the huge put/call disparity on SPY will attest to. It appears to me that you feel a slow and prolonged death of your investments is preferable to a quick jolt to your account. However, the first scenario is often a more sure fire way to lose money in the long haul.

Going long Canadian banks ( for example ) is one of the safest plays you can make. Strong yield, stable profitable companies, growing earnings, and a huge majority of shareholders in Canada simply hold these things forever.

I invite you to note how these two investments have done this year :

1. Buy a basket of Canadian banks ( or corresponding ETF ).
2. Short the S&P 500.

You may think #2 feels safer, but its not. During the "flash crash", I was watching BMO. It dropped $3 ( around 5% ), then regained it back. Much safer then holding the index actually.

 

[shortie]

Expr is in 2 days. Ever since Mubarak's selloff SPY has had 10 green and 3 tiny red days (all doji). Whoever sold Feb calls recently must be underwater and anxious to get out.

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

I fail to see the point in shorting one of the strongest sectors in the market while it is clearly trending up. A better trade would be long financials in 2011. Its not hard to find modest valuations in this sector.

QQQQ gapped down today, and have been stuck for the whole PM at the resistance in the 58.90 area. if it does not break yesterday's high, then it is not a good sign.

Did anyone notice QQQQ volume today?

XLE and SPY are stronger today, but if the leader get stuck, the end may be near.

I think shortie aske estimate for XLE (the strongest), and the number was, which is 3 dollar away at most.

 

[shortie]

Quote from tradingjournals:

QQQQ gapped down today, and have been stuck for the whole PM at the resistance in the 58.90 area. if it does not break yesterday's high, then it is not a good sign.

Did anyone notice QQQQ volume today?

XLE and SPY are stronger today, but if the leader get stuck, the end may be near.

I think shortie aske estimate for XLE (the strongest), and the number was, which is 3 dollar away at most.

thank you for your model results for XLE.

we are around new highs and tomorrow option expiration. will anybody be surprised if there is a run-up at least in the first half of the day to squeeze Feb call sellers? this market is totally insane.

 

[piezoe]

Quote from tradingjournals:

We have had two selloffs from 57.93 level. The 1.5% window given by my models, at beginning of last week, for a qqqq topping was [57.93, 58.80]. I missed logging in at end of day Friday to buy puts. I hope we will not have a down gap at open on Monday---so I may buy some puts at favorable prices.


Does anyone know the highest leverage one can get on the short side while paying no/least time premium?

Let's see. I think Lehman was using 30/1 leverage. Ask your broker for that.