Weekly Pin Butterfly Strategy

ffs1001 said:
Although the annual return of 8% based on the last 3 months may not seem great, remember that these 3 months have very much been the learning-and-experimenting phase. With refinement, it's possible that this return could/will increase.




1) Why AMZN? Due to the high price of the underlying? Last Mon was a good time to do an AMZN strangle (as you realised) but that was due to the big fall in the market and increased IV. This week, I wouldn't recommend AMZN as they report earnings on Thur. From next week onwards, you may find the premiums on the 5D strangle aren't quite what you may want to be.

2) I'd be interested to hear about your SPX iron flies - I tried many, many times to make these work, but I consistently lost money. I found the IV on SPX to be too low compared to the actual movement.

Calendar on SPX - be careful with these - the profit tent is quite narrow and the index can easily shoot above or below your breakevens in a day or two. Gamma risk is very real with calendars, and I'd only recommend if the vol of the shorts are way higher than that of the longs. That usually happens when there's a big down day. But no free lunch - a big down day is often followed by a biggish move (in either direction) the next day.


Good luck.
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@ffs1001 Thanks for these thoughtful comments. I plan to be out of AMZN pretty quickly ahead of expiration and then you're right looking at the pricing after earnings will be interesting. In general I'm looking at AMZN as it is a high priced SN. The Iron Flies have worked for me as long as I'm not greedy. I can usually sell a 20 pt wide around 15 to 20 minutes after the open and look to collect .5 on a decay in about 20 minutes and then I'm out. When I hang around hoping for more is where I've had a big move that wipes it out. I'm going to start small with the calendars and see. In general I like the set up you mention higher IV in the short strike. I'm thinking of doing them on the call side around 25 delta and looking for a 10% profit on any decay or bump in the vol. Doing 5 DTE short to 10 DTE long so out by Friday expiration. I've had some good luck with calendars in SN in the past looking primarily for the volatility differential in the strikes. Do you have any rules or set ups that you use for calendars?
 
Week 27 Update
New income trades placed and exited before fly set up on Thursday

Sold 1 AMZN 33200-4100 Strangle @ 11.30 bot @ 5.60 + $570
2 SPX Calendars total profit + $50
20 put Iron Flies multiple +$120

Flies
AMD 4:8:4 94-100-106 puts bot @ $1.86
BLNK 7:13:7 33-37-41 calls bot @ $1.50
CHWY 5:10:5 85-90-85 calls bot @ $2.10
CRWD 2:4:2 255-265-275 calls bot @ $4.60
FB 3:6:3 337.5 - 350-362.5 puts bot @ $4.88
MARA 6:12:5 - 26-20-34 calls bot @ $1.90
PTON 5:10:5 116-120-124 calls bot @ $1.87
SFIX 6:12:6 54-58.5-63 calls bot @ $1.74
UPST sold 8 Iron Flies 120-125-130 @ 2.80
ZM 1:2:1 380-400-420 calls bot @ $6.45

Went with smaller capital allocation this week as I work to refine the strategy
 
Week 27 - Totals

Flies
AMD 4:8:4 94-100-106 puts bot @ $1.86 sold @ $0.80 - $424
BLNK 7:13:7 33-37-41 calls bot @ $1.50 sold @ $1.95 + $315
CHWY 5:10:5 85-90-85 calls bot @ $2.10 sold @ $0.75 -$685
CRWD 2:4:2 255-265-275 calls bot @ $4.60 $ $1.50 -$620
FB 3:6:3 337.5 - 350-362.5 puts bot @ $4.88 sold @ $5.90 +$306
MARA 6:12:5 - 26-20-34 calls bot @ $1.90 sold @ $1.90 + $0
PTON 5:10:5 116-120-124 calls bot @ $1.87 $1.95 +$540
SFIX 6:12:6 54-58.5-63 calls bot @ $1.74 sold @ $1.76 +$12
UPST sold 8 Iron Flies 120-125-130 @ 2.80 bot @ $2.55 +$200
ZM 1:2:1 380-400-420 calls bot @ $6.45 sold @ $2.20 -$425

Added an Intraday SPX fly
SPX 5:10:5 4385-4400-4415 put fly bot @ $6.50 sold @ $8.20 +$850

Had a few other intraday trades that were small winners a short AMZN put a straddle in TSLA a strangle in SQ don't fell like adding them all up as there is a cold beer waiting at the neighbors. And a crap load of SPX iron fly five lots that added up to pretty much a small winning week. The net liq is above the one I meant to post last week that was lower accidentally posted the wrong one .

total p / l +$69 commissions: $166.40 net p/l -$97.40


ytd: +5,034 +2% YTD on risk Capital +25%

Thoughts:
  • AMZN strangle worked well again as did the BWB flies worked on Wednesday rolled up and locked in a winner.
  • Calendar income spreads worked ok up about $100 on those on a couple of one lots but feel uneasy about them.
  • Flies were pretty much a scratch.
  • I like the end of day SPX flies as something to add on Fridays.

net liq 14.JPG
 
Curious, why aren’t you trading flies in the 4 horses (SPY IWM QQQ DIA)?

Or, why not in ETF’s… they are less volatile (but that might not be a good thing). SMH, TLT, GLD some opportunities too.
 
Week 28 Update

Flies opened on Thursday 8/5 for 8/6 expiration

BIDU 5:10:5 162.5-170-177.5 call bot @ $3.06
CRWD 3:6:3 250-260-270 put bot @ $4.55
GME 1:2:1 140-170-200 call bot @ $12.51
NFLX 4:8:4 520-530-540 call bot @ $4.00
NIO 8:16:8 42-45-48 put bot @ $1.90
PYPL sold 8 275-280-285 iron flies @ credit $2.41
SNAP 7:14:7 75-80-85 call bot @ $2.06
TWTR 8:16:8 6-70-73 call bot @ $1.80
W 3:6:3 257.5-270-282.5 put bot @ $4.40

Thoughts
  • Going into Friday up $1,000 from last weeks net liq on selling AMZN strangle playing an SPX fly at expiration on Wednesday and a couple random trades. One has me left a couple free calls in AMD that are slightly ITM going into tomorrow. Could pop nicely.
  • Did a few Iron Flies in SPX on Mon and Wed for some small but consistent wins.
  • Trading a 5 lot SPX calendar closed it on on Wednesday for a winner as well.
  • Found my usual set ups difficult to find this week with all the earnings still in play. Struggled to find flies with a directional bias towards a large open interest position that seemed in play.
  • See what tomorrow brings.
  • Allocated around 15 k of the 155 k towards trades up a little from last week.
 
.sigma said:
Curious, why aren’t you trading flies in the 4 horses (SPY IWM QQQ DIA)?

Or, why not in ETF’s… they are less volatile (but that might not be a good thing). SMH, TLT, GLD some opportunities too.
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I will start looking at them. I've always viewed them as not a one day play type instrument other than a hedge. I will start looking at their structure. I've started trading expiration intraday flies in SPX on Mon Wed and FRI using putting them on around 1:00 PM and exiting around 2:45 CST.
 
caroy said:
I will start looking at them. I've always viewed them as not a one day play type instrument other than a hedge. I will start looking at their structure. I've started trading expiration intraday flies in SPX on Mon Wed and FRI using putting them on around 1:00 PM and exiting around 2:45 CST.
More...

interesting thought: choose single names for weekly trades… and maybe trade SPY IWM QQQ DIA TLT SMH GLD etc within the monthly cycles with wider wings. Not using the OI as the sole indicator, more so on mean levels across a monthly scale.
 
Week 28 -tally

BIDU 5:10:5 162.5-170-177.5 call bot @ $3.05 sold @ $3.75 +$250
CRWD 3:6:3 250-260-270 put bot @ $4.55 sold @ $4.00 -$165
GME 1:2:1 140-170-200 call bot @ $12.51 sold @ $15.50 +$349
NFLX 4:8:4 520-530-540 call bot @ $4.00 sold @ $5.00 +$400
NIO 8:16:8 42-45-48 put bot @ $1.90 sold @ $2.15 +$200
PYPL sold 8 275-280-285 iron flies @ credit $2.41 bot @ $2.21 +$160
SNAP 7:14:7 75-80-85 call bot @ $2.06 sold @ $2.50 +$308
TWTR 8:16:8 67-70-73 call bot @ $1.80 sold @ $2.03 +$184
W 3:6:3 257.5-270-282.5 put bot @ $4.40 sold @ $642 +$666

P/L +2353 Commissions -$150 Net p/l $2,203

Winning Trades: 8/9 YTD Winning Trades 132/185

Performance YTD Performance YTD on Risk Capital up36%
Up $7,208 or 2.8%

Thoughts:
  • Good week. Happy with results overall.
  • Taking next week off for a week in Tuscany with the gal pal. Sadly the other two travelers cancelled out of Covid fears. We're all vaccinated I'm willing to risk two weeks in Italy if I catch it over there. Two week of Italian room service in a hotel beats cooking every plates in my kitchen. I picked up this trip for 7 days an nights in a Tuscan villa for $1400 and roundtrip airfare with TAP for $600. True bargain I don't want to pass up. Account flat. No risk no screen.
  • Played around with a NVAX fly that i ended up legging out of for a loser of around $500 intraday should have just left it along.
  • One expy day iron fly in SPX early and then a small lot put fly late in the day for modest gains.
  • Experimented with some exits on flies today by selling them off in pieces. With the larger lots I set up some cascading orders. Some of these hit on the open leaving me smaller positions to manage and might have prevented winners becoming losers. Might continue this strategy when I return.
  • New high water mark in site for the next week of flies. Don't jinx myself.
  • Never filled this week on the BWB SPX 16 delta put flies for a credit. Couldn't catch a bid.
  • AMZN 5 Delta strangle was a success as well earlier in the week.
  • Am going to just post the fly trades on this journal as it is the main emphasis.
  • Wishing all a good weekend.
  • netliq14.JPG
 
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