Why specifically calls ? Is the outlook usually bullish?
Weekly Pin Butterfly Strategy
- Thread starter caroy
- Start date
Why specifically calls ? Is the outlook usually bullish?
Same with puts. If there isn't much value in the short strikes of the belly of the fly and you are playing a directional move it's better to just go long outright the calls or the puts that would make up you ITM or ATM wing. The value of the one day fly is the theta crush of the guts mixed with the gamma spike of the wings
Week 26 midweek update
As I've been sitting in cash the majority of the time I've been thinking of what strategies could I put on early in the week to help generate some alpha. I've decided for the time being to implement three on a weekly basis: Broken Wing 16 delta SPX put fly w roll up of the broken wing for a free fly, 5 delta strangle on AMZN, and 20 put short Iron Fly day trades on SPX. Have been toying with a fourth doing a weekly calendar in SPX calls with a 30 delta call for the Friday expiration. I'll lay out the thinking and mechanics of each below with an update for each that was put on and exited this week. Love input on these and thoughts on sizing as well with capital preservation as the main goal.
BWB 16 Delta Put SPX - This trade is entered around 2:30 PM CST on Tuesday afternoon for Wednesday expiration. The goal is to collect 25 or 30 cents on a 10 lot. $250 or $300 before commissions and CBOE fees. The goal is for the index to stay where it is or rise on the following day. On the next day I put in a GTC order to roll up the broken wing for .05 locking in the .20 or .25 credit and leaving a free put fly on. These are cash settled so no need to screen sit them the rest of the day once the wing is rolled up. Risk is defined if there were to be a large sell off to the downside. One could either short the /ES or buy in the short puts leaving the long on to run. Of course there is whipsaw risk as well. This idea is from a video from SBD capital. Ideally this will add $1,000 a month in returns over the life of the year. Of course with any credit collecting strategy it is managing the losers when they do come that makes all the difference. Anyone who has spent time selling IC's for income knows the rogue wave knocks out months of work.
5 Delta Amazon Strangle - Picking up this idea from the popular post this week on "10 Delta Strangle" Idea is to sell on Monday's open a 5 Delta Strangle in Amazon. This naked undefined risk trade takes up a good chunk of buying power at around $45,000 but I'm sitting in cash and have the capital to put up. This week I sold the first one on Monday for $8.35 bot it in Tuesday mid morning at $4.15. Did another as a day trade on Wednesday sold at $4.41 and bought in at $3.50. Ideally I'm thinking of doing these just once a week on Monday and trying to close on Tuesday at 50% of max profit. Doing it again reminds me of pigs being slaughtered and a bad experience with Minneapolis Wheat from my 20s that still has a trauma scar.
SPX 0 DTE 20 point Short Iron Flies - Have been doing this one hear and there for a while on M,W, or F expiration. Usually entering around 8:45 CST after the opening move. Shorting a 2 lot of Iron Flies and collecting the premium and looking to buy it back at a .50 drop quickly to net a fast $100. This is defined risk. It plays on the theta decay as the market stagnates. Many of these if held till expiration would have either been a full loser or a bigger winner but I'm happy taking the quick wins with this one. In some ways it takes more screen sitting so I'm not a fan of that. Examples from Today below:
Granted all of these worked well this week. Perhaps beginners luck with all of these strategies but it was a good week to test them with the volatility on Monday and the turn around on Tuesday and the range today. Thinking of keeping all of these small with plenty of BP to defend one and two. Open to thoughts - things I'm not seeing etc.
As I've been sitting in cash the majority of the time I've been thinking of what strategies could I put on early in the week to help generate some alpha. I've decided for the time being to implement three on a weekly basis: Broken Wing 16 delta SPX put fly w roll up of the broken wing for a free fly, 5 delta strangle on AMZN, and 20 put short Iron Fly day trades on SPX. Have been toying with a fourth doing a weekly calendar in SPX calls with a 30 delta call for the Friday expiration. I'll lay out the thinking and mechanics of each below with an update for each that was put on and exited this week. Love input on these and thoughts on sizing as well with capital preservation as the main goal.
BWB 16 Delta Put SPX - This trade is entered around 2:30 PM CST on Tuesday afternoon for Wednesday expiration. The goal is to collect 25 or 30 cents on a 10 lot. $250 or $300 before commissions and CBOE fees. The goal is for the index to stay where it is or rise on the following day. On the next day I put in a GTC order to roll up the broken wing for .05 locking in the .20 or .25 credit and leaving a free put fly on. These are cash settled so no need to screen sit them the rest of the day once the wing is rolled up. Risk is defined if there were to be a large sell off to the downside. One could either short the /ES or buy in the short puts leaving the long on to run. Of course there is whipsaw risk as well. This idea is from a video from SBD capital. Ideally this will add $1,000 a month in returns over the life of the year. Of course with any credit collecting strategy it is managing the losers when they do come that makes all the difference. Anyone who has spent time selling IC's for income knows the rogue wave knocks out months of work.
5 Delta Amazon Strangle - Picking up this idea from the popular post this week on "10 Delta Strangle" Idea is to sell on Monday's open a 5 Delta Strangle in Amazon. This naked undefined risk trade takes up a good chunk of buying power at around $45,000 but I'm sitting in cash and have the capital to put up. This week I sold the first one on Monday for $8.35 bot it in Tuesday mid morning at $4.15. Did another as a day trade on Wednesday sold at $4.41 and bought in at $3.50. Ideally I'm thinking of doing these just once a week on Monday and trying to close on Tuesday at 50% of max profit. Doing it again reminds me of pigs being slaughtered and a bad experience with Minneapolis Wheat from my 20s that still has a trauma scar.
SPX 0 DTE 20 point Short Iron Flies - Have been doing this one hear and there for a while on M,W, or F expiration. Usually entering around 8:45 CST after the opening move. Shorting a 2 lot of Iron Flies and collecting the premium and looking to buy it back at a .50 drop quickly to net a fast $100. This is defined risk. It plays on the theta decay as the market stagnates. Many of these if held till expiration would have either been a full loser or a bigger winner but I'm happy taking the quick wins with this one. In some ways it takes more screen sitting so I'm not a fan of that. Examples from Today below:
Granted all of these worked well this week. Perhaps beginners luck with all of these strategies but it was a good week to test them with the volatility on Monday and the turn around on Tuesday and the range today. Thinking of keeping all of these small with plenty of BP to defend one and two. Open to thoughts - things I'm not seeing etc.
Attachments
Week 26 - Update
Positions added for Friday 7/23 expiration
ABND sold 15 137-140-143 Iron Flies @ $1.70
COIN 3:6:3 220-235-250 calls bot @ $6.80
DASH 8:16:8 180-190-200 calls bot @ $2.92
MRNA 3:6:3 280-305-330 puts bot @ $7.82
NFLX 5:10:5 485-500-515 puts bot @ $4.93
ROKU 4:8:4 415-430-445 calls bot @ $5.60
TSLA 4:8:4 645-660-675 calls bot @ $5.95
UPST 12:24:12 115-120-125 calls bot @ $2.08
W 4:8:4 280-290-300 calls bot @ $5.45
ZM 6:12:6 345-355-365 puts bot @ $3.80
See what tomorrow brings.
Positions added for Friday 7/23 expiration
ABND sold 15 137-140-143 Iron Flies @ $1.70
COIN 3:6:3 220-235-250 calls bot @ $6.80
DASH 8:16:8 180-190-200 calls bot @ $2.92
MRNA 3:6:3 280-305-330 puts bot @ $7.82
NFLX 5:10:5 485-500-515 puts bot @ $4.93
ROKU 4:8:4 415-430-445 calls bot @ $5.60
TSLA 4:8:4 645-660-675 calls bot @ $5.95
UPST 12:24:12 115-120-125 calls bot @ $2.08
W 4:8:4 280-290-300 calls bot @ $5.45
ZM 6:12:6 345-355-365 puts bot @ $3.80
See what tomorrow brings.
my boy caroy is wicked smart
All tied to the debit paid. Trying to keep each fly between 2000 to 2500 of risk capital so around 25 k at risk week to week or around 7.5-8%. The larger flies when you multiply the number of contracts by the debit all come out about the same. Some a little more some a little less.
Week 26 - Totals
ABND sold 15 137-140-143 Iron Flies @ $1.70 bot @ $`1.55 + $225
COIN 3:6:3 220-235-250 calls bot @ $6.80 sold @ $4.27 - $759
DASH 8:16:8 180-190-200 calls bot @ $2.92 sold @ $3.50 +$464
MRNA 3:6:3 280-305-330 puts bot @ $7.82 sold @ $2.13 -$1707
NFLX 5:10:5 485-500-515 puts bot @ $4.93 sold @ $6.00 +$535
ROKU 4:8:4 415-430-445 calls bot @ $5.60 sold @ $0.25 -$2140
TSLA 4:8:4 645-660-675 calls bot @ $5.95 sold @ $0.75 -$2100
UPST 12:24:12 115-120-125 calls bot @ $2.08 sold @ $1.40 -$816
W 4:8:4 280-290-300 calls bot @ $5.45 sold @ $5.25 -$200
ZM 6:12:6 345-355-365 puts bot @ $3.80 sold @ $3.85 +$30
P/L Commissions: Net p/l
-$6468 -$205 -$6,672
average winner: $313.50 average loser: -$1287
winning trades: 4/10 ytd winning trades:
Return YTD: +$4386.27 up 1.7% Return on Capital YTD: up 22%
Thoughts:
ABND sold 15 137-140-143 Iron Flies @ $1.70 bot @ $`1.55 + $225
COIN 3:6:3 220-235-250 calls bot @ $6.80 sold @ $4.27 - $759
DASH 8:16:8 180-190-200 calls bot @ $2.92 sold @ $3.50 +$464
MRNA 3:6:3 280-305-330 puts bot @ $7.82 sold @ $2.13 -$1707
NFLX 5:10:5 485-500-515 puts bot @ $4.93 sold @ $6.00 +$535
ROKU 4:8:4 415-430-445 calls bot @ $5.60 sold @ $0.25 -$2140
TSLA 4:8:4 645-660-675 calls bot @ $5.95 sold @ $0.75 -$2100
UPST 12:24:12 115-120-125 calls bot @ $2.08 sold @ $1.40 -$816
W 4:8:4 280-290-300 calls bot @ $5.45 sold @ $5.25 -$200
ZM 6:12:6 345-355-365 puts bot @ $3.80 sold @ $3.85 +$30
P/L Commissions: Net p/l
-$6468 -$205 -$6,672
average winner: $313.50 average loser: -$1287
winning trades: 4/10 ytd winning trades:
Return YTD: +$4386.27 up 1.7% Return on Capital YTD: up 22%
Thoughts:
- Well a pretty shitty week all in all. Late posting as I left Friday to take the girlfriend on a long road trip to meet the mother. Perhaps not a best mindset for trading and exiting trades. But an enjoyable weekend seeing family and a minor league baseball game in Indianapolis and then Ft. Wayne. First long road trip with the Model 3 as well which was fun.
- Held on to the losers too long had I exited all trades in the morning as I have been the last few weeks the day would have been a small loss instead of a horrific performance.
- ROKU was a beastly bitch that blew up up up and through my wings. An early exit would have been profitable on the open once again but I was greedy hoping it would pin and it became a large loser.
- Thinking this strategy has been going for about three months and if I took this return rate and adjusted for expected annual return I'm only looking at 8% right now. Of course last week was a new high water mark so this week stings. Sharing the results keeps me honest and I like the feedback from others as I've learned a lot from other posters comments.
- I did not panic and start adding midday flies to try to make back the losses as in the past. I accept my beatings when they come but I still hate losing but try not to take it out on those around me. Well maybe my dog.
- I'm going to focus this week on starting to add some income strategies to take advantage of the capital amount that is just sitting unused until Thursday. Will focus on the 5 delta strangle in AMZN the quick Iron Flies on SPX and the 16 Delta Broken Wing Butterfly in SPX for income and add a weekly calendar with SPX calls. With these all being added as part of the strategy I'm thinking of creating a new journal page as this is no longer true to just weekly flies. Debating this as keeping all the thoughts in one place seems fine.
- I'm not abandoning hope yet for this strategy but trying to look at it from a return point of view. I was starting to use more around 7 to 10 percent allocation and may drop it back to 5 with the flies while adding the other components. Have been thinking about adding a one lot SPY wheel with selling puts as well to this but with a little twist with a ratio spread for a credit. Take the assignment if it comes as it would only eat up about 20% of the capital and ideally this is an account I plan to be in for the long term.
Although the annual return of 8% based on the last 3 months may not seem great, remember that these 3 months have very much been the learning-and-experimenting phase. With refinement, it's possible that this return could/will increase.
1) Why AMZN? Due to the high price of the underlying? Last Mon was a good time to do an AMZN strangle (as you realised) but that was due to the big fall in the market and increased IV. This week, I wouldn't recommend AMZN as they report earnings on Thur. From next week onwards, you may find the premiums on the 5D strangle aren't quite what you may want to be.
2) I'd be interested to hear about your SPX iron flies - I tried many, many times to make these work, but I consistently lost money. I found the IV on SPX to be too low compared to the actual movement.
Edit: Just read your previous post about these flies - seems like you are do a quick in-and-out type trade where the rapidly fluctuating spreads can often give a profit. Nice. This maybe the right way to go, as opposed to over-night holding which is where I got burnt.
Calendar on SPX - be careful with these - the profit tent is quite narrow and the index can easily shoot above or below your break-evens in a day or two. Gamma risk is very real with calendars, and I'd only recommend if the vol of the shorts are way higher than that of the longs. That usually happens when there's a big down day. But no free lunch - a big down day is often followed by a biggish move (in either direction) the next day.
Good luck.
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