Weekly Pin Butterfly Strategy

Entered the following butterflies this morning.

X 1:3:2 20-24-26 Call Fly @ $1.32 playing OI in strikes and rally

RIOT 1:2:1 26-30-34 call fly @$0.72 classic structure around OI

NIO 1:3:2 56-60-62 call fly @$0.91 playing OI again

IWM 1:2:1 213-210-207 put fly @$0.32 pull back play

On other fronts that turd AMC rallying nicely for me on my shit stock plays.
VXX hedge hanging in there on the fly.
 
Update
Added the following buy

GME 1:2:1 38-40-42 Call Fly @ $0.40 1 DTE Pinning Play

Update

bought in guts on
X 1:3:2 20-24-26 call Fly @ $0.01 1 DTE leaving on the long 20 call in hopes of a rally.
 
Week 2 Outcomes

Weekly Flies
1:2:1 IWM 213-210-201 put fly enter $0.35 exit $0.42 W
1:3:2 NIO 56-60-62 call fly enter $0.91 exit $1.85 W
1:3:2 X 20-24-26 call fly enter $1.32 exit $0.10 L
1:2:1 RIOT 26-30-34 call fly enter $0.72 exit $0.10 L

Winners 50%
Total P/L - $0.83

Mid Week Fly
1:2:1 GME 38-40-42 call fly enter $0.40 exit $0.15 L

Winners 0%
Total p/l -$0.35

Expiration Day Straddle / Strangle

/ZSH1 1360-1350 strangle @ 7 1/2 cents exit @ 15 cents W
Winners 100%
Total P/L - $3.75

Week 2:
Total P/L + $257 nice week

Reflections
  • I need to have a clearer goal with profits and exits. Almost all of these positions were winners on the board at one time and I managed to turn a few into losers. I should have let some run like IWM. I think I need to change my mind set and just let expiration day be my exit. Although with NIO the early exit on Thursday was a better profit.
  • Playing the straddle this week was the savior. As the shortened week I couldn't trade equity options as it would have been my fourth overall day trade in the five day period and I'd get the ban. No worry as the grains went off the board today and I learned about options working in the soybean pit. So this was a good trade but had I let it run it would have been even nicer. Bought near the open the straddle (actually a tight strangle to control BP) and it broke hard and I exited doubling my money but should have held on. This is something I will be thinking about on these straddles. I've watched some drizzle away into nothing so it was nice to see it really move although I'm long actual physical beans in a silo in Indiana tied to some land I invest in. So it's a mixed bag. But after last week I'm happy for something.
  • Those of you who haven't dabbled with commodities or futures you might enjoy the expy day straddle play. The mechanics are the same just goofy conversions on bushels, barrells, etc.
  • Looking forward to eyeing some fly set ups for next week but thinking about not entering until Wednesday and just keep to a Friday exit.
Happy Trading and a good weekend to all
 
Week 3 - Looking ahead

Opening Following Positions

1:2:1 AMD 91-90-88 broken wing put fly @ credit $0.35
1:2:1 WDC 50-49-47 broken wing put fly @ credit $0.25

both filled

Using broken wings to collect credit on the put side. These are earnings plays in these stocks for next week. Looking for vol to collapse and / or bullish news. Upside runs keep the credit. Am going to use the $60 cents to hedge with a fly in the spy.

bought
1:2:1 SPY 383-380-311 put fly 1/29/21 @ debit $0.33
hedging
 
Very interesting trades. I've just modelled the AMD one.
You expecting to hold these through earnings? If so, then not sure you even need the SPY hedge, cos the stocks (AMD/WDC) will be driven far more by the earnings report and guidance than the general market direction. And using up the $60 means than there is no guaranteed profit on the single name flies on the upside. Of course, your SPY fly may well give a profit to compensate for this.

Just my two-pence worth.
 
ffs1001 said:
Very interesting trades. I've just modelled the AMD one.
You expecting to hold these through earnings? If so, then not sure you even need the SPY hedge, cos the stocks (AMD/WDC) will be driven far more by the earnings report and guidance than the general market direction. And using up the $60 means than there is no guaranteed profit on the single name flies on the upside. Of course, your SPY fly may well give a profit to compensate for this.

Just my two-pence worth.
More...
Good thoughts. I plan to hold through earnings. I have on some cash covered puts that i'm using the SPY play as a hedge against as well for next week. I'm going to start looking at the OI on some stocks for pinning plays but am going to wait until Wednesday to enter those. Just bought one of the SPY.
 
Week 3
Added the following positions this morning.

RIOT 1:3:2 20-25-27.5 Call Fly @ $1.10
C 1:2:1 62-65-68 Call Fly @ $0.32
DKNG 1:3:2 52-55-56.5 Call Fly @$0.68
X 1:2:1 18-20-22 Call Fly @$0.57
CAT 1:2:1 190-195-200 Call Fly @$0.89

Non Fly Trades
Long Calendar in SNAP 54 puts -Feb 5 + Mar 5 @ $1.49
+100 shares of BXRX @ $1.52 sold covered call $2.50 March 19 @ $0.40 basis now $1.22. Hoping @sigma is right about this stock.
 
Week 3 Outcomes
Weekly Flies
Percent winners: 66%
1:3:2 RIOT 20-25-27.5 Call fly enter @$1.10 exit at $2.68 +$1.58
1:2:1 C 62-65-68 Call fly enter @$0.32 exit @ $0.15 - $0.17
1:3:2 DKNG 52-55-56.5 Call fly enter @$0.68 exit @ $1.00 + $0.32
1:2:1 X 18-20-22 Call fly enter @$0.57 exit at $0.90 +$0.33
1:2:1 CAT 190-195-200 Call fly enter @$0.89 exit @ $0.60 - $0.29
1:2:1 AMD 91-90-88 put fly enter @ credit $0.35 $0.84 - $0.49
1:2:1 WDC 50-49-47 put fly enter @ credit $0.25 exit @ $0.00 +$0.25
1:2:1 SPY 383-380-377 put fly enter @ $0.33 exit @ $0.60 +$0.27
1:2:1 VXX 16-24-32 call fly enter @ $0.91 exit @ $1.90 +$0.99

Mid-Week Fly
22-25-28 NKLA iron fly entry @ 1.63 credit exit $1.50 credit +$0.13

Expiration Day
win percent 50%
18 straddle AAL entry @ $0.91 exit at $1.12 +$0.21
10 straddle KODK entry @$0.87 exit at $0.65 -$0.22

Calendar Spreads
win percent 100%
AMC $6 put calendar entry @ $1.50 exit @ $1.65 +$0.15
SNAP $54 put calendar entry @ 1.50 exit @ 1.60 + $0.10

Total P/L for week 3: +$3.16 $316

Take Aways:
A good week in terms of P/L. Trimmed losers and exited them earlier. Exiting Friday morning worked well and VXX and SPY hedges worked well. Thinking these weekly flies are better just put on with two or three days to go instead of starting them on Monday. Happy with the week. Other annoying feature of flies is getting filled at entry and exit. Always feel like you're being taken to the cleaners. When these flies work they are a very good return on capital as they take very little buying power to put on.

Legged out of the straddles and I'm shoring they now count as four day trades instead of two so hoping I won't be in PDT jail. Sigh. All I can show from wall street bets is a little profit in AMC. Not enough balls to play around with GameStonk.

Wishing everyone a good weekend.
 
fly2-5.jpg
Ideas for the week.
 
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