My weekly comments on S&P for the week of Dec 2 - Dec 6, 2013
Recap
A weak version of what happened to Dow. 50% previous week range. Closed the week at Y+1 / previous week close and below midpoint.
Outlook
If we are getting a spike reversal here for real, we need ES to close on daily basis below B-1 quickly. That will open the door to a flush back down to below B-3.
Without a strong down move to trigger more selling, I do not expect significant swings to happen this coming week as volume dry up during the holiday season.
p.s. I am no longer a sponsor of the site, just a regular member now. =)
I am correct that NQ has a consolidation week â choppy move back down to Y-0 pretty much sums up the story. NFP report caused an upside breakout of the consolidation range. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Outlook
As mentioned last week, on swing basis NQ has not shown weaknesses yet. And here we are, another new year high printed.
The void zone created between Y-1 upto B-1 will be revisited when longer term pullback / correction is due.
For now, as long as NQ can hold above B-0, more upside in store.
Was looking for a down move and we got it. Seasonal bias gave us the strong swing down til Thursday. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Outlook
The seasonal bearish bias was used up last week. If Dow can find a swing bottom early next week Christmas rally will send Dow back up to year high before Christmas.
Out of the 3 indices, ES is the worst offender among them in trapping the bears. Gap higher to start the week and drifted lower into FOMC announcement. Then the new shock spiked down to below Y-1 yet immediately reversed back up and zoomed to the normal upside target as mentioned in real-time chat. ES then continued its march higher by Friday and printed another new year high just like the seasonal bias suggested. Closed the week near Y+1 and near week high.
Outlook
Outside up close week. 2nd outside week. Very powerful setup pointing to more upside. Due to the wide range swing, consolidation in play.
Combining the biases, we get a 50% range swings around Y+1 / B+1. Do not underestimate this 50%, we are talking about upside potential of above 1840 for the bullish scenario and at least mid 1830s for the sideway scenario. Will be difficult to trade swings like this in the expected low volume environment.
NDX comments for the week of 2013 Dec 30 to 2014 Jan 3
Recap
NQ gapped higher to start the week. Clearing the resistance right off the start gave it a bullish bias to push higher. Lack of volume reduced the volatility. Closed the week above Y+1 and near midpoint.
Outlook
Tight range week, no volume and left a rare open gap on weekly. This is bearish and implies a pullback to Y+1 is likely within a week or two. Since it is year end next week, I suspect that the pullback will be delayed to the one right after.
