Weeeee look at oil go, poor stock market
- Thread starter myminitrading
- Start date
All securites are hard to trade. Only a select handful of 'movements' can be predicted with decent accuracy.
This is a very easy play though. Short oil NOW. It WILL go back to 60-63 soon.
The ship wasn't fired on. The 15 soldiers will be released sooner or latter. The US wont declare war and neither will Iran.
Nigeria ?Who cares about nigeria. Nigeria only accounts for 8 percent of total U.S. oil imports
I don't know the specific reason, but it's the same reason I didn't like them last year...they did not participate in the run. I do know that they were Cramer's darling last year and that was a good enough warning sign for me.
I've heard that they just aren't as productive as their peers and have higher costs. But it's just hearsay, I have no evidence or proof to cite.
Look at the tear MRO has been on as well.
Here's something to chew over; the short interest increase as a percentage from Feb to March for TSO was 3.25%, it was 15.74% for MRO and 35.76% for VLO
Actual short of the float for each was
TSO= 6.7% MRO= 1.66% VLO= 1.91%
So in each case, there is no meaningful amount of short interest, but TSO and MRO are going relatively higher and it's not likely due to any short covering; there is genuine buying interest.
There's probably a thousand ways to analyze this and as many different recommendations and opinions. Since you are well ahead in this one, maybe a disciplined mental stop is a good idea or hedge it with some June $60 puts?
I don't want to convince you that VLO is a bad choice by any means, just don't put them on cruise control.
I've heard that they just aren't as productive as their peers and have higher costs. But it's just hearsay, I have no evidence or proof to cite.
Look at the tear MRO has been on as well.
Here's something to chew over; the short interest increase as a percentage from Feb to March for TSO was 3.25%, it was 15.74% for MRO and 35.76% for VLO
Actual short of the float for each was
TSO= 6.7% MRO= 1.66% VLO= 1.91%
So in each case, there is no meaningful amount of short interest, but TSO and MRO are going relatively higher and it's not likely due to any short covering; there is genuine buying interest.
There's probably a thousand ways to analyze this and as many different recommendations and opinions. Since you are well ahead in this one, maybe a disciplined mental stop is a good idea or hedge it with some June $60 puts?
I don't want to convince you that VLO is a bad choice by any means, just don't put them on cruise control.
Who cares about Nigeria?...You cannot possibly be a close follower of crude to make a statement like that. I guess you missed the death of one of their Presidential candidates that caused a spike today huh? Yep, somebody cares about Nigeria, even if you don't.
For some reason you seem to think that the energy market is logical, it is no more logical than any other sector, perhaps even less so.
So how many contracts will you be shorting tomorrow?
I have a few minutes to educate you and your "attitude".
The reason that I stated that crude oil was "dragged-up" by gasoline on the day in question is because of the simple fact that there is a TON of West Texas Intermediate Crude in the marketplace that is unable to be processed at the rate that it used to be processed at due to all of the refinery outages.
Ask yourself where the WTI that trades on the NYMEX is delivered.
Does Cushing, Oklahoma sound about right to you?
And guess which refinery's have their MAIN PIPELINE connections with the Cushing hub?
Try the 146,000 barrel per day Borger, Texas Refinery run by COP, along with VLO's McKee Refinery in Sunray, Texas which used to crank out roughly 170,000 barrels of crude per day.
So, when 316,000 barrels per day of WTI crude oil processing goes down the tubes because of these two refineries being out, then it is fairly easy to come to the conclusion that the WTI futures contract on the NYMEX was being "dragged-up" by the gasoline futures.
Again, let me state this one more time for you . . .
The lack of refining capacity caused a lack of demand for crude at the Cushing Hub, which further exacerbated the very tight supply situation for the product, gasoline.
Besides, why else do you think that the WTI is trading at such a big discount to North Sea Brent?
Duh.
It's called lack of refining capacity.
Thanks for playing.
Have a nice weekend!
market continues to go higher
stop overanalyszing things
time 2 buy
make money the ez way with buy & hold
i did that to make big profits
stop overanalyszing things
time 2 buy
make money the ez way with buy & hold
i did that to make big profits
Quote from Landis82:
I have a few minutes to educate you and your "attitude".
The reason that I stated that crude oil was "dragged-up" by gasoline on the day in question is because of the simple fact that there is a TON of West Texas Intermediate Crude in the marketplace that is unable to be processed at the rate that it used to be processed at due to all of the refinery outages.
Ask yourself where the WTI that trades on the NYMEX is delivered.
Does Cushing, Oklahoma sound about right to you?
And guess which refinery's have their MAIN PIPELINE connections with the Cushing hub?
Try the 146,000 barrel per day Borger, Texas Refinery run by COP, along with VLO's McKee Refinery in Sunray, Texas which used to crank out roughly 170,000 barrels of crude per day.
So, when 316,000 barrels per day of WTI crude oil processing goes down the tubes because of these two refineries being out, then it is fairly easy to come to the conclusion that the WTI futures contract on the NYMEX was being "dragged-up" by the gasoline futures.
Again, let me state this one more time for you . . .
The lack of refining capacity caused a lack of demand for crude at the Cushing Hub, which further exacerbated the very tight supply situation for the product, gasoline.
Besides, why else do you think that the WTI is trading at such a big discount to North Sea Brent?
Duh.
It's called lack of refining capacity.
Thanks for playing.
Have a nice weekend!
It took you two weeks to come up with that? What's the matter, Eric wouldn't return your calls? Yeah, thanks for playing. What a joke you and your ego are.
Nope.
It didn't take 2 weeks to come up with my answer.
It's just that I don't spent all of my time on ET like you, that's all.
Did someone kick sand in your face?
From your response, it sounds like your Ego got smacked around a bit.
Never mind that you can't even begin to discuss the legitimacy of the answer that I gave. - - - - Let me know when you have a much better understanding of the concept of SUPPLY and DEMAND.
Have a nice day.
Quote from Landis82:
Nope.
It didn't take 2 weeks to come up with my answer.
It's just that I don't spent all of my time on ET like you, that's all.
Did someone kick sand in your face?
From your response, it sounds like your Ego got smacked around a bit.
Never mind that you can't even begin to discuss the legitimacy of the answer that I gave. - - - - Let me know when you have a much better understanding of the concept of SUPPLY and DEMAND.
Have a nice day.
That's funny since you're the post whore with roughly three times as many posts as myself.
It's plain to see who the piker with gigantor ego is, I had all but forgotten this thread and your rather forgettable persona, and then I receive e-mail notification 2 weeks later that you finally figured out how compose a paragraph or two of tripe.
You, on the other hand obviously had been thinking about this, it's been tearing at you and keeping you up at nights, because your poor widdle ego got bruised.
Thanks to you I think I have a grasp on supply and demand now; Eric Bolling demands blow jobs and you supply them with great vigor apparently, he does seem to smile a lot on tv.
Well I'd love to stay and chat a bit old boy, but I've a dinner engagement with my pal Warren Buffet, I don't believe he's into your fellatio specialties so don't bother asking. Toodles.