mak, I would argue the current situation is about as ugly as we've seen in most of our lifetime (folks younger than 40). It is really hard to even put lipstick on this pig.
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we will visit the march lows...
- Thread starter simon1080
- Start date
Quote from frank grimes:
mak, I would argue the current situation is about as ugly as we've seen in most of our lifetime (folks younger than 40). It is really hard to even put lipstick on this pig.
It is ugly, but stocks aren't overvalued and people aren't complacent like they were in 2000. Earnings haven't been as bad as many were predicting (yet, anyway). And as long as they stay relatively stable, most are probably fairly valued right now.
I agree, but it is hard to justify valutions getting richer from here. P.e.'s have been contracting since 2000 to try and ring out the mess from the lates 90's. Now we have to deal with the deleveraging of balance sheets, and who really knows what most companies look like internally, and the fed can't keep on buying their toxic shit forever, sooner or later we have to pay the iou's the fed has been handing out.
things do stink-to high heaven-never have the fundamentals been so stacked for a epic bear market!!! the books are cooked my friends bush-co. is in charge and they are bloody rich or i should say the world is bloody and bush-co. is rich!if this was any other year this mkt would be lower-but i digress-jan 2000high over two years later oct 2002 was the bottom in-35% the market moved /loss we are not down even 20% we have a long way to go-i see dow at 9700 at some point befor 2010-fed rate...000000000000000000000000% next year
30 yr mtg rates low 5's 2009-recession we are in time to buy soon-cash is king and people are not as dumb as they used to be not going to be suckered into a suckers market-game is always to sell to retail at the top and go short-the majors play that way-ask larry livermore
30 yr mtg rates low 5's 2009-recession we are in time to buy soon-cash is king and people are not as dumb as they used to be not going to be suckered into a suckers market-game is always to sell to retail at the top and go short-the majors play that way-ask larry livermore
Frank, regarding fundamentals, it seems to me every period is being perceived as the "worst ever". 1981/82, 1990/91 and 2001/2002. And now 2007/2008. The headlines read exactly the same. It's always the "biggest challenge", the "US is being sold out" and "Asia is taking over".
Of course this time could be different and journalists are right this time.
For the March lows, I personally think the market works in probabilities rather than guarantees. I would never rule out a strong move in either way. Personally, I'd give a 33% chance for visiting 1245 in the ES from here. For the year end, 50% chance for a close above 1450.
Of course this time could be different and journalists are right this time.
For the March lows, I personally think the market works in probabilities rather than guarantees. I would never rule out a strong move in either way. Personally, I'd give a 33% chance for visiting 1245 in the ES from here. For the year end, 50% chance for a close above 1450.
<i>"For the March lows, I personally think the market works in probabilities rather than guarantees. I would never rule out a strong move in either way. Personally, I'd give a 33% chance for visiting 1245 in the ES from here. For the year end, 50% chance for a close above 1450."</i>
Makloda, I always enjoy your posts and consider you one of the more intelligent (and sane) characters here.
That said, what do you see which would propel stock markets to new yearly highs by xmas? Are you expecting to increase your budget on holiday gifts? Everyone I know is reeling from $4+ gas and $4.50 gal heating oil to come. Unless crude goes back below $100 bbl AND STAYS BELOW $100 bbl, heating oil will be $5+ this winter. Propane / natty gas will tag along in sympathy.
People can always cut down on their driving. No one can cut back much more on their heating bill without suffering frozen pipes, frozen pets or frozen grandparents & children.
Do you have any idea what it'll be like for literally millions of people, lower income and middle-class people who will face $750 to $1,000 per month heating bills unless things dramatically change?
The bulk of this country's population (and Canada) reside in the northeast and great lakes region. Many if not most of them burn fuel oil, currently priced here at $4.59 per gallon. An efficient house burns about 100+ gallons per month on average... 200 gallons per month during the real brutal cold. Like Jan & Feb, right after xmas bills hit the mailbox.
I'm not into predictions at all, but I would more expect the Dow below 10k than above by year's end, especially so by Jan 31st. SPX 1100s is not out of line at all.
Just an intraday trader myself, flat at day's end with no dog in the hunt for long-term direction. What I see brewing in the economy that middle-class people are facing and bracing themselves for has nothing to do with sustained economic recoveries anytime soon.
Makloda, I always enjoy your posts and consider you one of the more intelligent (and sane) characters here.
That said, what do you see which would propel stock markets to new yearly highs by xmas? Are you expecting to increase your budget on holiday gifts? Everyone I know is reeling from $4+ gas and $4.50 gal heating oil to come. Unless crude goes back below $100 bbl AND STAYS BELOW $100 bbl, heating oil will be $5+ this winter. Propane / natty gas will tag along in sympathy.
People can always cut down on their driving. No one can cut back much more on their heating bill without suffering frozen pipes, frozen pets or frozen grandparents & children.
Do you have any idea what it'll be like for literally millions of people, lower income and middle-class people who will face $750 to $1,000 per month heating bills unless things dramatically change?
The bulk of this country's population (and Canada) reside in the northeast and great lakes region. Many if not most of them burn fuel oil, currently priced here at $4.59 per gallon. An efficient house burns about 100+ gallons per month on average... 200 gallons per month during the real brutal cold. Like Jan & Feb, right after xmas bills hit the mailbox.
I'm not into predictions at all, but I would more expect the Dow below 10k than above by year's end, especially so by Jan 31st. SPX 1100s is not out of line at all.
Just an intraday trader myself, flat at day's end with no dog in the hunt for long-term direction. What I see brewing in the economy that middle-class people are facing and bracing themselves for has nothing to do with sustained economic recoveries anytime soon.
Obviously crude calming down and at the very least going sideways would help going back to the January highs.
I don't doubt middle class US consumers have tough times ahead, but it's definitely not the first time that's the case. Is this a walk in the park? Doesn't look like it. Is this a 1929 type rapid worldwide economic implosion and destruction of wealth accumulated over the last 60 years? I don't buy into that thesis.
I could argue in 1990/1991 the perceived picture for the US middle class was very similar to todays (housing crisis, inflation all over the headlines, crude doubled, non-farm payrolls imploded, unemployment claims -350/400k weekly on much lower population numbers, Gulf War I etc.) and yet the SPX rallied what like 28% in 1991. This is not a prediction, just a historic fact.
I wouldn't be surprised to find zero correlation between "12 month stock market performance" and our individually "perceived economic well-being of the US middle class".
I don't doubt middle class US consumers have tough times ahead, but it's definitely not the first time that's the case. Is this a walk in the park? Doesn't look like it. Is this a 1929 type rapid worldwide economic implosion and destruction of wealth accumulated over the last 60 years? I don't buy into that thesis.
I could argue in 1990/1991 the perceived picture for the US middle class was very similar to todays (housing crisis, inflation all over the headlines, crude doubled, non-farm payrolls imploded, unemployment claims -350/400k weekly on much lower population numbers, Gulf War I etc.) and yet the SPX rallied what like 28% in 1991. This is not a prediction, just a historic fact.
I wouldn't be surprised to find zero correlation between "12 month stock market performance" and our individually "perceived economic well-being of the US middle class".
looks very bearish and us consumer drives the economy,if he doesn't spend,get's laid off and can't borrow,doesn't look rosy. There is a lot of money on the sidelines, where will it be put to work. Just watch and react,as internet traders we have so little info as to trading compared to the big funds, it's foolish to pretrade any size in this economic climate unless you are hedged.
<i>"I wouldn't be surprised to find zero correlation between "12 month stock market performance" and our individually "perceived economic well-being of the US middle class".</i>
<b>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25011096</b>
One of a thousand near-future reality checks for U.S. to deal with. The current recession this country has been firmly entrenched within for a couple of fiscal quarters now hasn't even glimpsed a bottom yet.
<b>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25011096</b>
One of a thousand near-future reality checks for U.S. to deal with. The current recession this country has been firmly entrenched within for a couple of fiscal quarters now hasn't even glimpsed a bottom yet.