Quote from jwlabno:
If you see a shooter standing 1 m away from the target and you make a prediction that he will hit the bullseye with all his shots, you can be fairly certain about this prediction of the future events. If you say that he will hit the bullseye at least once while he is 10m away from the target, there is much less chance that the prediction will come true. And even less if you predict that he will do it 5 days in a row.
The further we go into the future with our predictions, and the more specific we are, the less chance of them to be correct. As the time passes the number of possible future outcomes increases rapidly. There is a limited number of events that can affect predictions in the above example. Weather, shooter's health, some external distractions. There is far more events that affect the economy and where it will go.
Therefore, the macro scale or the big picture analysis can only be successfully applied to the past events, not the future. I would risk an opinion that there is no such thing like big picture when considering the future. Even those with power to affect the economic future, with power to manipulate it, can not factor in all effects of their actions. Your dow 15000 prediction may well come true, for the exact reasons you have given, or for completely different reasons. Right now many interpret the economic data to predict doom rather than boom. If i had to choose between one or the other, i'd go for crash - the prices drop much easier than rise.
But as a trader I am not a good audience to receive or discuss your thesis. Trader's efforts go into reducing the number of possible outcomes, or increasing the odds of their trades. By placing a trade, in a way, traders make a prediction that their traded instrument will move in the chosed direction, but the future considered, even in case of trend trading is relatively short. Day trading and swing trading practically deals with present, and the future predicted in terms of hours, days or even weeks has much higher probability of happening than if you think in terms of years or decades.
So I am sceptical about your prediction, not so much about whether it will or won;t happen, but about the degree of certainty you attach to it. There is also a fact that it doesn't really matter to me, and I suspect to most traders, whether it will go up or down. If it goes up I will be long, if goes down, I'll be short, whether the big picture is bullish or bearish in the long term is of no great importance to me, it is the microscale that provides the income and pays my bills.
So sorry if I couldn't respond with something like "but whatabout the effect of xxxx on yyyy, wouldn't this mean that your assumption zzzz is incorrect?" or similar. There is just too many variables to even roughly approximate where the markets will be in a year or two or more.
