I wasn't implying that the bull run would define/create a new economic paradigm that would cause unjustified prices to be sustainable. I am not that much of an academic ideologue. I was simply stating that the TRADITIONAL FUNDAMENTALS from the rest of the economy may be positioned to allow for a FUNDAMENTAL continuation of what may have previously been hysteria...
We want the $$ to fall and bond yields to rise, DOW 15000!!!
- Thread starter citizennobody
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I wasn't implying that the bull run would define/create a new economic paradigm that would cause unjustified prices to be sustainable. I am not that much of an academic ideologue. I was simply stating that the TRADITIONAL FUNDAMENTALS from the rest of the economy may be positioned to allow for a FUNDAMENTAL continuation of what may have previously been hysteria...
the problem with your theory is that other country that export to us cant allow that to happen. they will be forced to devalue their currency faster than we do because if they cant export to us they are doomed. it then becomes a contest to see who can destroy their currency the fastest.in the long run devaluing your currency to try to gain an advantage over your neighbors is a no win situation.
the real answer is for us to become more competitive but would require us to take some strong medicine.
the real answer is for us to become more competitive but would require us to take some strong medicine.
So, Greenspan and the other world central bank chairmen are at a meeting and Greenspan says we are devaluing the dollar to 90 cents tomorrow. Then Japan jumps up and says then we are devaluing the Yen by 20%, so Germany pipes up and says we are going to devalue the DM by 50%, so there. Then England gets the last word and says we are going to give away our currency at Zero!
Ha ha ha ha ha. If it were only that simple!!!
Wally
I hope you are not a currency trader because your views on currency parity is quite odd...
Call me kooky but I would follow relative inflation rates, interest rates, capital market conditions, current account balances, capital account balances, political sentiments, and consumer economic sentiment factors as a macro guide for guaging the health of a currency before trying to make a prediction about direction. Then I would follow the markets and technical indicators to determine price behavior...
I don't think a devaluation piss off would be a theory that I would subscribe to...
it has nothing to do with being pissed off. it is self preservation. what do you think asia does if the us currency is allowed to fall to levels where they cant sell any products to us.
in any case the dollar probably isn't going to crash because all the factors you mentioned are as bad or worse in the countries of the other currencies in the world.
My only hope is that people who make bold, sweeping predictions also take the time, in advance, to come up with a new ET name for themselves. This way, they can start over again without any downtime after the inevitable humbling has taken its course. You see, I need a constant stream of bold predictions for entertainment value.
As an aside, I think that there have been more "paradigm shifts" since the term has first been coined than at any other time in recorded history. Please keep 'em coming.
As an aside, I think that there have been more "paradigm shifts" since the term has first been coined than at any other time in recorded history. Please keep 'em coming.
Even better way to handle this, is to register another ET acct and contradict the prediction with the EXACT OPPOSITE prediction. That way, regardless of where the market goes, you have one ET acct that has attained GURU status
-Fast (bored @ work)
Quote from Fast_Trader:
Even better way to handle this, is to register another ET acct and contradict the prediction with the EXACT OPPOSITE prediction. That way, regardless of where the market goes, you have one ET acct that has attained GURU status
-Fast (bored @ work)
I don't have the gargantuan egos that many of you seem to be plagued with. I don't use self approbation as a crutch for some insecurity that has plagued my existence. I just wanted to throw a bone out there to see what type of economic response you people could come up with and so far I have been SORELY disappointed.
I was hoping to receive the depth and range of intelligent responses that I peruse in the other sections on this site. I was hoping to find someone that would post an insightful response to this thread that would cause me to think.
Now I am just curious..., but do all of you just follow some obscure pattern of technical indicators or do you ever step back and look at the big picture. I have been called many things in my life but by far the biggest compliment I have ever received is being called an inquisitive pain in the arse. I have a thirst for how things work and thats what I am trying to figure out. I was hoping to get a reply not only analyzing my prediction but with some real world trading application to boot. What is this section for again??? Naysayers???
I think that most people here are wary (and perhaps weary) of bold predictions. Also, please bear in mind that this is a trading Web site and not a macroeconomics Web site. While there is some overlap, I believe that it would be tangential for most, given the way that they trade. (That is certainly the case for me.) I think that traders are, by nature, skeptical. Too much confidence and bluster evokes that skeptisicm. Plus, some folks may simply not agree with your scenario for any number of reasons. I would count myself among them. Good luck with your trading.
I am more optimistic than them until 2008/2012 if one believe into Kondratieff's cycle which is already in a bad mood
http://aegeancapital.com/freeservices/tutorials/kondratieff/pg1.htm
http://aegeancapital.com/freeservices/tutorials/kondratieff/pg2.htm
http://aegeancapital.com/freeservices/tutorials/kondratieff/pg1.htm
http://aegeancapital.com/freeservices/tutorials/kondratieff/pg2.htm