We have topped...

i happen to totally agree that the top took place this week. i will give it +1% at most next week but it won't go that high most likely.


my own confidence is highly suspicious to me but i challenge the market to prove me wrong.
 
Quote from retaildaytrader:

One thing that you guys fail to understand is that its better to miss a 5% move then to experience a 20% haircut. Im not interested in trading all the time because then I would become a bad gambler. A good gambler knows when to leave the table as they have an idea when their luck might turn. Now in leaving the table they might miss a few good hands, but they are also avoiding a bunch of bad beats.

Many of you guys are just a bad bunch of gamblers that must hang around the table playing cards until all hours of the night not knowing when to do something else.

I still maintain that this is the top. My timing might be off, but in a month or so when the indexes are ripping in then this call and my last top call will seem like sage advice that you should have followed. I know of some guys on other message boards that tried to trade through the downturn in April and were wiped out. They stopped posting after those bad beats.

If you want my opinion, then there will be a recession starting in January of next year. All you guys loaded up take caution...
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No, its simple, your recent calls have been terrible. Stop making excuses. There will be no 20% haircut, the recent "top calls" from you and others ( eg 1100, 1140, 1150, 1165, 1185 ) are actually more likely support points on any real drop. If you were an experienced successful trader you would understand that old resistance becomes support in many cases.

Here's the facts buddy. If the market drops 20% eventually, it will be some time in the future after a series of obvious events that tell us the market is going down. Now is not the time to guess a crash so soon after the last one ( try researching the average number of years between market crashes ). And forget the "flash crash", it wasn't worth even considering.

What you have persistantly posted is badly timed, losing trades that are of no use to anyone. Yes, you are smart enough to realize when you are in over your head and go to cash ( debateable though given you are supposably patient and still short AAPL ). And yes, you may have realized you are indeed a "bad gambler" buying triple bear ETFs on the idea you can pronounce a market top.

ET has become a haven for truly absurd advice. Please knock it off and try to learn from others.
 
Quote from Nine_Ender:


What you have persistantly posted is badly timed, losing trades that are of no use to anyone.
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I beg to differ. If he's consistently posting badly losing trades, I will happily take the other side of each of those trades.

More than useful, indeed...:p
 
Now that we have heard all the chest beating from the peanut gallery, lets get to some logic. Look at the futures and thats all you need to know. Small caps are weak, large caps are strong. If the Russell 2000 does not get above its last high then the market will not go any higher. We saw this in 2007 and so many times before where the small caps started struggling and then the entire market comes down with it.

These charts are self-updating BTW...

fut_chart.ashx


fut_chart.ashx
 
Quote from Tsing Tao:

please stop wasting our time.
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If I was wasting your time, then you wouldnt be reading or commenting in this thread. There is an "ignore" feature that you choose purposely not to use. No matter what you say in regards to ignoring me or wasting your time, you still choose to read the thread. Obviously, I am not wasting your time as you look to threads like this for wisdom. I know human nature and that you might be saying one thing, but mean another. Thats ok. If thats your deal, thats your deal.

However, to continue with the theme. We have no topped out.

This chart is where we are right now. Keep in mind, this chart self-updates because I am the man. It wont self update if you post it. Just in my thread.

If that ES falls off the shelf, then its a long way down from here.

fut_chart.ashx
 
This chart represents investment grade corporate debt. At the top you will see what is a head and shoulders.

If this plays out, then we will see a market correction.

LQDc1dl1319.png
 
Quote from retaildaytrader:

If I was wasting your time, then you wouldnt be reading or commenting in this thread. There is an "ignore" feature that you choose purposely not to use. No matter what you say in regards to ignoring me or wasting your time, you still choose to read the thread. Obviously, I am not wasting your time as you look to threads like this for wisdom. I know human nature and that you might be saying one thing, but mean another. Thats ok. If thats your deal, thats your deal.
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we read for the sheer comedy. as for why we click on the thread, sometimes people offer insightful views. it's just that you're not one of those people.

one need only to read the "go to cash now" thread for hysterics.
 
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