We have seen this movie twice already

Quote from kashirin:

Remember 2008?
Fed aggressively cuts interest rates in 0.5% chunks every month
Oil goes to $150
Then everything collapsed

2011
Fed aggressively prints money
oil goes to $115
Then everything collapsed


2012 February
Fed aggressively prints money
PLUS
ECB aggressively prints money
PLUS
BoE aggressively prints money

Oil is $110 and +10% for a week
And next week another 1 trillion injection from ECB

Wait till April and then buy September puts and you're rich in 3 months
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Whether or not this works out is irrelevant. I can appreciate this call and logic for what it is. A proper contrarian bet and mindset. Instead of the typical "price is too high here" that most spew when they want to fade.

Kashirin is a thinker. May you profit from your forward thinking.


Just dont bet the fuckn farm...:D
 
Quote from Crispy:




Just dont bet the fuckn farm...:D
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not betting the farm and i have similar thinking to him. Here in Toronto, Canada gasoline is $1.29/liter and you can tell its starting to hurt everyone, when oil was $150 in 2008 gas prices topped at 1.33, in late 2010 there was another spike and they also topped at 1.33. I don't know what its like in the states but from headlines i can see Americans are also complaining about gas prices.

My logic is that if oil rallies anymore from this point its going to kill demand for everything else as gasoline prices have no more room to go up (doesn't mean they cant) but if they do say hello to demand destruction.

Therefore i'm not betting the farm but i want to "bet" more than normal because I feel like we are near a tipping point and upside risk is limited, is my logic sound?

im just a student trying to pay off parts of my tuition with speculative capital, is that too much to ask lol?
 
Quote from staffpro:



Therefore i'm not betting the farm but i want to "bet" more than normal because I feel like we are near a tipping point and upside risk is limited, is my logic sound?

im just a student trying to pay off parts of my tuition with speculative capital, is that too much to ask lol?
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My .02 again - anon internet guy says =

Whats your typical bet per trade and how much bigger are you willing to be on one individual trade that is meaningless in the grand scale of things? Personally when I feel I have slamdunk I still take normal size. I may give it more room to work. But size can kill.

Student paying off loans with spec cap? .......sorry to say but its doomed to fail. You simply cannot trade with the expectation that mkt will be paying your bills. Not trying to be a downer. Just truthful.
 
i'm not paying off loans, ive managed to pay my tuition in full for this year from savings + part time job, i would just like to make some money for next year for example instead of wasting my summer away in some meaningless job for $15/hour
 
You don't think every high paid quant and research department on Wall Street hasn't already thought of this?

I wonder what's going to be more profitable, buying the puts as you said, or selling them to you...


Just thinking aloud.
 
Quote from Jack_Larkin:

You don't think every high paid quant and research department on Wall Street hasn't already thought of this?

I wonder what's going to be more profitable, buying the puts as you said, or selling them to you...


Just thinking aloud.
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Totally valid point.

I would say that this is why a trader bets his normal size each and every time. You may be right or wrong... over the long run this one wont mean a damn thing.
 
Quote from Jack_Larkin:

You don't think every high paid quant and research department on Wall Street hasn't already thought of this?

I wonder what's going to be more profitable, buying the puts as you said, or selling them to you...


Just thinking aloud.
More...

valid point.
 
The demise of China rests on the pain that America is willing to withstand.

The game will start with a devaluation of the dollar so oil rises to $200. Manufacturing will return to America. It was announced last week by the administration that this is the objective.

Read carefully: http://bit.ly/nOEizB
 
1.29/liter here in canada = 4.87/gallon

in europe its more like 6+/gallon

so yes im already rumbling with that.

and i dont see 200/barrel as that would be something like 8-11/gallon, people would simply stop driving.
 
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