"We Don't Have Enough Information To Open The Economy" -- Bill Blain

[BeautifulStranger]

Let’s listen to the scientists. If the Americans want a willie-waggling contest between governors and the president; their call.

There is a lack of data – we simply don’t know enough about infections, rates and numbers. It’s a clear lesson to learn about testing. It’s now about a trade-off between opening early or delaying opening. In the absence of real data, it’s probably better we wait a little longer. The big risk is opening too early could result in a second spike in C-19 cases in around 2-3 months. That’s a repeat crisis worth avoiding...."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/blain-beware-market-judder

I was schooled as a chemist and biologist (finance later)... and purely from a science perspective, I agree with Blain.

FWIW...

Read today an article in NEJM.org that discussed Iceland's experience with Covid-19. They had prepared well in advance, had both random and voluntary testing of a statistically meaningful number of their population, and they still feel they will not be able to stop the virus from spreading.

Who are we kidding? Americans tend to travel a lot, especially during Summer, and without major changes in how we deal with our vulnerabilities, secondary infection is inevitable. Was not the whole point of the lockdown to create a plateau of infections that could be easier delt with by our healthcare system and to buy ourselves more time to implement long term protective measures?

I would imagine a Trump endorsed premature lifting of containment provisions would lead to his political undoing in spectacular fashion. Even against Joe Biden. As in popular and electoral landslide. Unfortunately, the real sufferers are the additional people that will be needlessly infected with this virus, regardless of their political ideology. We are talking about unnecessary exposure to a virus that has been implicated in strokes, generally characterized as "minor" as well as other long term health issues. The burden of additional disability years this virus has already added upon our society will be felt for a long time.

The US has seemingly turned into a "Can't do" nation from a "Can do" nation. Our problem solvers' ideas get lost in our politically prioritized policy making process.

Perhaps this virus or more likely, the next virus, will be the "Cure" against an overpopulation of dummies in this country.

If enough people get tired of the status quo, maybe reforms will actually happen. There certainly should be enough people with free time on their hands now to make things happen. Time to be as persistent as a virus in our efforts demanding permanent reforms to our political system.

Any takers here?

 

[jem]

you naturally get a lower RO as you get herd immunity.
Now, what if have much lower RO on people healthy immune systems vs with a an unhealthy immune system. You could reopen if you reopen to the healthy. essentially you need to think in ROs of the subset. Plus until you do antibody tests and test a large enough subset to extrapolate you really don't know anything.

you are not really applying your knowledge. you are just spouting the narrative you have been fed.

you are being treated like mushrooms.
you are being kept in the dark... fed a lot shit
and some of you seem to enjoy it.
you all need to think before you start typing the narrative at me.
....

testing and isolation is going to be more effective with a virus when people know they are infectious. When your disease hides and over half the people don't even know they have it... testing is only going to have limited impact.

tracing may work to some degree but its not going work all that well... when you have disease which can hide for days and when more than half of the people don't even know they have it.



you all need to think... before you write.

The only way to achieve a low Ro is through testing and tracing.

I’m getting tired of arguing with you over basic stuff.

 

[jem]

perfect post... although I doubt the narrative spouters mental filters will let them accept what you just posted.

The crap the experts are telling is logically inconsistent to the point its offensive to anyone who thinks about it.

If the disease hides for 14 days and half the people don't even know they have it and it has a a high RO... you are very likely going to suffer it natural consequence absent a 100 percent lockdown. partial testing and social distancing may delay it a bit... but it wont stop a virus with the properties they are claiming it has.

something is not true.
right now... I suspect that something is that it needs to be analyzed in a more discrete manner. Subset by Subset. healthy vs unhealthy immune systems perhaps.

They need to be sharing the data so we can see what is really going on.

Read today an article in NEJM.org that discussed Iceland's experience with Covid-19. They had prepared well in advance, had both random and voluntary testing of a statistically meaningful number of their population, and they still feel they will not be able to stop the virus from spreading.

Who are we kidding? Americans tend to travel a lot, especially during Summer, and without major changes in how we deal with our vulnerabilities, secondary infection is inevitable. Was not the whole point of the lockdown to create a plateau of infections that could be easier delt with by our healthcare system and to buy ourselves more time to implement long term protective measures?

I would imagine a Trump endorsed premature lifting of containment provisions would lead to his political undoing in spectacular fashion. Even against Joe Biden. As in popular and electoral landslide. Unfortunately, the real sufferers are the additional people that will be needlessly infected with this virus, regardless of their political ideology. We are talking about unnecessary exposure to a virus that has been implicated in strokes, generally characterized as "minor" as well as other long term health issues. The burden of additional disability years this virus has already added upon our society will be felt for a long time.

The US has seemingly turned into a "Can't do" nation from a "Can do" nation. Our problem solvers' ideas get lost in our politically prioritized policy making process.

Perhaps this virus or more likely, the next virus, will be the "Cure" against an overpopulation of dummies in this country.

If enough people get tired of the status quo, maybe reforms will actually happen. There certainly should be enough people with free time on their hands now to make things happen. Time to be as persistent as a virus in our efforts demanding permanent reforms to our political system.

Any takers here?

 

[jem]

On bloomberg this morning they were interviewing a former head of British Health or something like that.

when asked if testing and tracing would be more useful in outlying areas vs say central London...


I believe he said its starting to look like this disease has an RO of less than 1, hence testing and tracing would useful and something they could do... even in large cities.


---
Finally, for the first time in weeks I heard something consistent between an assumption about the virus, the data and a proposed action.

 

[jem]

I just read on another thread 60 percent of the sailors on that carrier tested positive yet have no symptoms.

 

[gwb-trading]

I just read on another thread 60 percent of the sailors on that carrier tested positive yet have no symptoms.

Here is what was said exactly... It is 60% of those who tested positive (350 of 600 positive) showed no symptoms; not 60% of the total sailors on the ship. The carrier has 4,800 sailors on it.

The Navy is the military branch hardest hit by the coronavirus, with over 1,000 cases among military personnel. And, the majority of those cases, 660, are aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

Since the outbreak began in late March, the Navy has tested 94% of the ship, a force of roughly 4,800 personnel.

On NBC's "Today Show" Thursday, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper revealed that more than half of the infected sailors never had any symptoms.

"What we've found of the 600 or so that have been infected, what's disconcerting is a majority of those, 350 plus, are asymptomatic," he said, adding, "So it has revealed a new dynamic of this virus that it can be carried by normal, healthy people who have no idea whatsoever that they are carrying it."

https://www.businessinsider.com/tes...er-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4

 

[Cuddles]

Here is what was said exactly... It is 60% of those who tested positive (350 of 600 positive) showed no symptoms; not 60% of the total sailors on the ship. The carrier has 4,800 sailors on it.

The Navy is the military branch hardest hit by the coronavirus, with over 1,000 cases among military personnel. And, the majority of those cases, 660, are aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

Since the outbreak began in late March, the Navy has tested 94% of the ship, a force of roughly 4,800 personnel.

On NBC's "Today Show" Thursday, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper revealed that more than half of the infected sailors never had any symptoms.

"What we've found of the 600 or so that have been infected, what's disconcerting is a majority of those, 350 plus, are asymptomatic," he said, adding, "So it has revealed a new dynamic of this virus that it can be carried by normal, healthy people who have no idea whatsoever that they are carrying it."

https://www.businessinsider.com/tes...er-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4

This was proven by the Iceland study a maybe a week and a half ago. Though we've known of asymptomatic carriers for quite some time.