"We Don't Have Enough Information To Open The Economy" -- Bill Blain

[El OchoCinco]

Good news is the government thinks the $1,200 will last people 10 weeks! So no worries if you got a check, you are good to go until late June.


These checks in the mail or direct deposit, it's really bridge liquidity for people as they go through these difficult times...I think the entire package provides economic relief overall for about 10 weeks." - Steve Munichin

 

[jem]

i have to agree with you on that.
The FED is creating trillions and trillions and these sobs cant grant 1500 a month UBI?

if we are going to be electing democrats... the democrats need to stand up here and do something useful.


and we should be talking about vouchers for health care so we can use the power of the purse to create competition.


if the Federal Reserve is going to debase our currency
we might as well help them do for people too.

Good news is the government thinks the $1,200 will last people 10 weeks! So no worries if you got a check, you are good to go until late June.


These checks in the mail or direct deposit, it's really bridge liquidity for people as they go through these difficult times...I think the entire package provides economic relief overall for about 10 weeks." - Steve Munichin

 

[El OchoCinco]

if we are going to be electing democrats... the democrats need to stand up here and do something useful.


.

LOL....i am not sure they know how anymore...

 

[UsualName]

Germany is opening their economy next week and they are actually ready, whereas we are opening ours *reportedly* May 1 in regions and we are not ready.

What’s the difference? Germany has a plan to hold infection Ro to less then 1, we do not. Germany has testing and tracking capabilities and we do not. Germany has a competent leader and we have a reality show host moron who argues one day that he has total authority and the next day he has no responsibility.

 

[jem]

how can Germany know it can hold RO to less than one without knowing you have accurate antibody tests.
accurate testing is mostly an illusion until you have millions and millions of accurate antibody tests. (or until you have herd immunity)
so that is just an aspiration or propaganda.

they are opening because they have more balls and understand the risk of staying closed.

or they are opening because they understand models better than Fauci

or they have the balls to understand that this virus goes after certain groups and that others should conisder taking the risk. (if that can be seen in the data which is not being released)

maybe they don't have as many socialist regional governors.

Germany is opening their economy next week and they are actually ready, whereas we are opening ours *reportedly* May 1 in regions and we are not ready.

What’s the difference? Germany has a plan to hold infection Ro to less then 1, we do not. Germany has testing and tracking capabilities and we do not. Germany has a competent leader and we have a reality show host moron who argues one day that he has total authority and the next day he has no responsibility.

 

[gwb-trading]

how can we Germany hold RO to less than one without knowing you have accurate antibody tests.

they are opening because they have more balls.
or they are opening because they understand models better than Fauci

South Korea and Germany are the only two nations that have implemented wide-scale COVID-19 testing and contact tracing. This is why Germany can take small steps in opening up the nation.

Germany set to be European pioneer in partially lifting Covid-19 restrictions
https://www.france24.com/en/2020041...kel-social-distancing-relaxation-who-pandemic
Most shops will be allowed to open once they have "plans to maintain hygiene" although schools must stay closed until May 4 and a ban on large public events will remain in place until August 31.

Germany even traced its first community case back to a salt shaker...
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020...meticulously-traced-its-coronavirus-outbreak/

 

[jem]

Ok.. so the reason is that Germany can open is because they know their death rate is far below 1.
so my 2d and 3rd choices above seem to apply.

There data looks a lot like the data I saw in San Diego last week.
(The testing would not be cause them to open if they had a high RO and lots of people are dying.)

 

[UsualName]

Ok.. so the reason is that Germany can open is because they know their death rate is far below 1.
so my 2d and 3rd choices above seem to apply.

There data looks a lot like the data I saw in San Diego last week.
(The testing would not be cause them to open if they had a high RO and lots of people are dying.)

The only way to achieve a low Ro is through testing and tracing.

I’m getting tired of arguing with you over basic stuff.

 

[gwb-trading]

Ok.. so the reason is that Germany can open is because they know their death rate is far below 1.
so my 2d and 3rd choices above seem to apply.

There data looks a lot like the data I saw in San Diego last week.
(The testing would not be cause them to open if they had a high RO and lots of people are dying.)

Germany has the following mortality rate as of 4/16 : 4052 deaths / 137,698 cases = 2.94%
However their community spread, new case trends, and R0 are way down due to widespread testing and contact tracing since the initial cases in Germany.

Germany has tested 20,629 people per 1M population. A rate that is double the U.S. and most other large countries. Germany's deaths per 1M population is 48; the number for the U.S. is 104.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As medical experts have stated - the ONLY way to drive down effective RO in a pandemic with no available vaccine & effective treatment is through wide-scale testing and contact tracing plus "stay at home". Wide-scale testing alone is useless for reducing R0 unless you do contact tracing & mitigate the individuals in contact via at home isolation.

Note that there are multiple R0 terms for unmitigated R0 and mitigated R0 -- when you look though papers on the subject --- with all sorts of math behind them. So the calculation of actual R0 is complex and requires a large data set to be proper.

 

[UsualName]

Germany has the following mortality rate as of 4/16 : 4052 deaths / 137,698 cases = 2.94%
However their community spread, new case trends, and R0 are way down due to widespread testing and contact tracing since the initial cases in Germany.

Germany has tested 20,629 people per 1M population. A rate that is double the U.S. and most other large countries. Germany's deaths per 1M population is 48; the number for the U.S. is 104.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Right. Testing and tracing stops spread and insulates the vulnerable populations that are most likely to have bad outcomes.