"We Don't Have Enough Information To Open The Economy" -- Bill Blain

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

Let’s listen to the scientists. If the Americans want a willie-waggling contest between governors and the president; their call.

There is a lack of data – we simply don’t know enough about infections, rates and numbers. It’s a clear lesson to learn about testing. It’s now about a trade-off between opening early or delaying opening. In the absence of real data, it’s probably better we wait a little longer. The big risk is opening too early could result in a second spike in C-19 cases in around 2-3 months. That’s a repeat crisis worth avoiding...."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/blain-beware-market-judder

I was schooled as a chemist and biologist (finance later)... and purely from a science perspective, I agree with Blain.

FWIW...
 
Another reason we cannot open up the economy is we as a culture can be quite stupid when compared to how other nations handle this on the professional level.

I reached out to a close friend who son is a doctor in Philly. This is the answer I got... let's call him "Liam"

Liam was home from work to care for his children because his wife had a bad fever and then his kids caught it.
Liam let work know and they told him that if everyone was fever free for 24 hours he should come back into work which he did today. However, when he arrived he was told to return home and come back when he had a Covid test...the facility that he works at are capable of doing the test. He called us half an hour ago to tell us that he can't get a test because he doesn't have any symptoms. Despite him explaining that he needs the test so he can get back to treating sick people who do have the symptoms...so currently he is effectively having a 14 day paid holiday when to quote him "the shit is hitting the fan at work". To complete this tale of incompetence the company he works for has secured N95 masks and are distributing them to supervisors/directors to issue them to their staff. BUT instead of sending the masks to the various facilities they are sending them to home addresses. Thus, Liam will have plenty of masks but won't be able to give them to his people who are still at work!

We are really stupid and I don't doubt this kind of fucktardary is happening at facilities all around the country.
 
My view is we should be opening it region by region.
And, since we probably unnecessarily closed some regions on incomplete data... it might be worth allowing some areas a test opening.

We did a universal close on insufficient data.
We may not have good data for months.
i.e. anti body tests may or may not be accurate right now.
We can not afford to wait for an indefinite period right now.

We need a compromise.
We need test regions.

It would not be a massive risk to the country to give place like San Diego a chance to reopen soon. IMO.
Yes... it could backfire dramatically on us. so it should be voluntary.

Give the less dramatically hit areas an optional opportunity if they wish to re open in a controlled manner. School kids home, elderly protected. Pre - existing condition... wait a month.... etc.

Then other areas could see what lessons are learned.

It short this should be phased.
By the way I believe we have to reconsider what goes into the balance. Its not just the risk of Covid... its that risk vs financial destruction, suicide, domestic violence, economic collapse of critical industries like food etc.


Scataphagos said:
Let’s listen to the scientists. If the Americans want a willie-waggling contest between governors and the president; their call.

There is a lack of data – we simply don’t know enough about infections, rates and numbers. It’s a clear lesson to learn about testing. It’s now about a trade-off between opening early or delaying opening. In the absence of real data, it’s probably better we wait a little longer. The big risk is opening too early could result in a second spike in C-19 cases in around 2-3 months. That’s a repeat crisis worth avoiding...."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/blain-beware-market-judder

I was schooled as a chemist and biologist (finance later)... and purely from a science perspective, I agree with Blain.

FWIW...
More...
 
jem said:
My view is we should be opening it region by region.
And, since we probably unnecessarily closed some regions on incomplete data... it might be worth allowing some areas a test opening.

We did a universal close on insufficient data.
We may not have good data for months.
i.e. anti body tests may or may not be accurate right now.
We can not afford to wait for an indefinite period right now.

We need a compromise.
We need test regions.

It would not be a massive risk to the country to give place like San Diego a chance to reopen soon. IMO.
Yes... it could backfire dramatically on us. so it should be voluntary.

Give the less dramatically hit areas an optional opportunity if they wish to re open in a controlled manner. School kids home, elderly protected. Pre - existing condition... wait a month.... etc.

Then other areas could see what lessons are learned.

It short this should be phased.
More...

Regardless of anyone's hope and desire (including Trump), it's all conjecture... risky at that... until there is sufficient data to back it up. So far, we don't have supporting data.

The alternative is to lift the lockdown and get everyone back to work... consequences be damned... and let those who are going to get it and die, do so. (Warts on this, too.)

Bottom Line... we don't know enough yet to make a smart decision. (Doesn't mean we are smart enough to wait until we do.)
 
without the knowledge of how many people have been exposed or when the cure will come... it will remain a risk at all times.

the existence of risk can not be the only reason to stay closed.

Ideally we must balance harm caused by being closed with the risk of reopening.
for now we can only guess as to each side of the scale.

Hence the need for test regions.

Scataphagos said:
Regardless of anyone's hope and desire (including Trump), it's all conjecture... risky at that... until there is sufficient data to back it up. So far, we don't have supporting data.

The alternative is to lift the lockdown and get everyone back to work... consequences be damned... and let those who are going to get it and die, do so. (Warts on this, too.)
More...
 
My guess is that Texas and Florida, among some others will begin opening back up perhaps as early as today.----and it's high time.
 
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Chances are good that a huge number of Americans have already been infected by Corona Virus and gotten well without serious symptoms. They have immunity now from Corona Virus. That is the basis of blood plasma being drawn from Corona Virus infected people who are now well. Blood plasma should be more thorougly, investigated as a possible cure. You do not have to wait one year to develop a vaccine.
 
Whether he opens the economy when scheduled or not, he's certainly doing an excellent job of achieving his primary objective—to keep the stock market propped up for as long as possible.

Trump: Easter Was "Just An Aspiration".
 
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