But there is a reason why prop firms used to only hire young guys with no market experience...they will be super aggressive in a bull market without any anxiety over a massive drop...it's sort of a revolving door and we've been through three consecutive bubble/bust cycles...
We could possibly be in late 1983-1984.
- Thread starter heavenskrow
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But there is a reason why prop firms used to only hire young guys with no market experience...they will be super aggressive in a bull market without any anxiety over a massive drop...it's sort of a revolving door and we've been through three consecutive bubble/bust cycles...
Interesting. Paul Tudor Jones also gave consideration to analogies between chart periods decades apart.
Maybe you could post your idea with the relevant charts for convenience?
And don't mind the negativity. They are just venting their frustrations coming from somewhere else.
It was after I graduated high school in 2008, I learned that there was a huge stock market crash and was scared of the future being the great depression but I was also really curious as to why and how it happened. After I learned that you could have made money even when market went down, I got hooked.
Please don't put me in the same camp with those shoeshine boys thinking market goes up forever.
The fear and mania of 2008 is well ingrained in me, but I also don't let that put me in a zerohedge/permabear camp. (Although I do hold gold/silver mining stocks for short term) In fact, my nature is more bearish than bullish and I actually thrive in 2011/2015 environments vs 2013 ride the trend up type of market.
I was shorting most of the year such as biotech, but with last week's tape I have changed my mind from this market is going to tank to the market can possibly take out the high.
Anyways, with continuation of bull strength today, I am sticking with the analog. I am not going into depth because some of you here don't deserve it tbh. I was hoping we could get more serious discussion of the charts between those periods. And yes the economic period between 1920s and 1970s were different but the charts rhymed and that's all PTJ needed.
I only created the thread to discuss charts, not bicker with "adults" about my age and credibility like Donald Trump. Hilarious, I thought the market taught us all to abandon our egos.
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It was after I graduated high school in 2008, I learned that there was a huge stock market crash and was scared of the future being the great depression but I was also really curious as to why and how it happened. After I learned that you could have made money even when market went down, I got hooked.
Please don't put me in the same camp with those shoeshine boys thinking market goes up forever.
The fear and mania of 2008 is well ingrained in me, but I also don't let that put me in a zerohedge/permabear camp. (Although I do hold gold/silver mining stocks for short term) In fact, my nature is more bearish than bullish and I actually thrive in 2011/2015 environments vs 2013 ride the trend up type of market.
I was shorting most of the year such as biotech, but with last week's tape I have changed my mind from this market is going to tank to the market can possibly take out the high.
Anyways, with continuation of bull strength today, I am sticking with the analog. I am not going into depth because some of you here don't deserve it tbh. I was hoping we could get more serious discussion of the charts between those periods. And yes the economic period between 1920s and 1970s were different but the charts rhymed and that's all PTJ needed.
I only created the thread to discuss charts, not bicker with "adults" about my age and credibility like Donald Trump. Hilarious, I thought the market taught us all to abandon our egos.
I can honestly say you can't use past market info in today's current market environment for one simple reason....the fed...if it wasn't for them the markets wouldn't be 200%+ higher off their lows set in 2009 but rather still sitting near 2009-2010 lows...I know many will disagree but when you have a market controlled by central banks, history of past markets situations are thrown out ...that's just my take on that...I'll still listen and see what you can compare to past market data but with the fed and their printed trillions they just know how to create nothing but asset bubbles...
Long term returns from business investment; compounded! Stocks do go up and up and up over the long term
ops:Well, yeah, maybe, but it's always "different this time" - The boy does have a point; bat-sh!t-insane monetary policy or not
I like your analysis. Good job. Don't know if it is right of course. We will see, won't we. Don't pay much attention to those who have pointed out the differences between now and then. The market on a time scale of days, weeks, and months is often a poor reflector of the real economy. One reason is that traders are notoriously bad economists and usually get most things wrong. Another is that traders are influenced by pattern repetition and there are subscription services that will track down pattern correlations for them. This tends to make for self-fulfilling prophecy. Of course in the very long run, markets do have to reflect the general economy.
What is economically important, by the way, is not the interest rate -- the difference between then and now has been called to your attention -- but rather the 'real rate' which is the difference between the inflation rate and the nominal interest rate. I would suspect that when you consider the real rates you won't find a great amount of difference between then and now. Haven't looked myself. Just a hunch. (One problem of course is what measure of the inflation rate do you use to make the comparison?)