We could possibly be in late 1983-1984.

[heavenskrow]

During my time in college, I often saw a lot of parallels in the 2000-2008 correction to the 1968-1974 time period. I won't go in too much depth but I believe since the 1974/2008 bottom, we have been rhyming in the post correction bounce.

On the Sp500, we technically hit the same "resistance areas" this year before it corrected, sitting on the same MA as back in 1984 before it bottomed and have held support as of last week. I find it a little spooky but it gives me an open mind to the possibilities of where the market could go from here.

And this is coming from a bear who has been short most of this year. As short as I have been in AAPL and biotechs, they have held key support for now and the Nasdaq still has not made a lower high on the daily charts.
My models on the Sp500&DJI are giving a short term "edge" to the bulls well before the reversal on Friday although still bearish on Nikkei and Biotech.

Anyways, just throwing out this thought here because I found it quite interesting while I was doing my weekly analysis over the weekend given the clues the chart has left me with.

 

[NoVoodooHere]

During my time in college, I often saw a lot of parallels in the 2000-2008 correction to the 1968-1974 time period. I won't go in too much depth but I believe since the 1974/2008 bottom, we have been rhyming in the post correction bounce.

On the Sp500, we technically hit the same "resistance areas" this year before it corrected, sitting on the same MA as back in 1984 before it bottomed and have held support as of last week. I find it a little spooky but it gives me an open mind to the possibilities of where the market could go from here.

And this is coming from a bear who has been short most of this year. As short as I have been in AAPL and biotechs, they have held key support for now and the Nasdaq still has not made a lower high on the daily charts.
My models on the Sp500&DJI are giving a short term "edge" to the bulls well before the reversal on Friday although still bearish on Nikkei and Biotech.

Anyways, just throwing out this thought here because I found it quite interesting while I was doing my weekly analysis over the weekend given the clues the chart has left me with.

soooo you graduated college after 2008, if I read that correctly.

Also, I'm pretty sure we are in the year 2015

 

[heavenskrow]

soooo you graduated college after 2008, if I read that correctly.

Also, I'm pretty sure we are in the year 2015

I graduated high school in 2008(hence why I got so curious about the stock market), but graduated college in 2013. Maybe I should have phrased it better.

Lol....and yes we are in 2015....but I believe we are in a stock market analogy of the late 1983's-early 1984.
If I had the funds/time, I'd do a more in depth analysis of the world economies around that time such as interest rates, U.S. dollar, commodities, oil.

On a side note, VIX futures has broken key support levels and ZB has hit a target that coincided with a resistance level. Very strange how all these things coincide isn't it?

Everything could change tomorrow like it did with Friday, but hope it might be use to some other traders here.

 

[sculptor66]

Forget the charts. The economic and political environment of today is totally different from 1983. The US had double digit interest rates back then, the cold war and nuclear arms race was still in full force, China wasn't a major economic player and - apart from the arms race and the risk of nuclear war - there was great optimism about the future. Also thanks to Ronald Reagan, who managed to give Americans back their self-confidence and the belief in the American Dream after the depressing Carter years.

 

[jonny1lot]

Forget the charts. The economic and political environment of today is totally different from 1983. The US had double digit interest rates back then, the cold war and nuclear arms race was still in full force, China wasn't a major economic player and - apart from the arms race and the risk of nuclear war - there was great optimism about the future. Also thanks to Ronald Reagan, who managed to give Americans back their self-confidence and the belief in the American Dream after the depressing Carter years.

Yes, today is very different from the late 70s/early 80s. Interest rates were at records highs, inflation was high, and assets on an inflation adjusted basis were at generational lows.

 

[destriero]

Ya, it is hard not to chuckle when a kid in his mid-20's is telling us about possible historic analogs when the kid hadn't been born yet in the period in question.

 

[heavenskrow]

Ego at it's finest. PTJ was in his mid 20's using a historical analog of the 1920's to model the top of 1987 =]

 

[destriero]

Ego at it's finest. PTJ was in his mid 20's using a historical analog of the 1920's to model the top of 1987 =]

omg the irony. This clown is now making reference to PTJ after graduating from a top-100K school and daytrading one lots for a few years. This generation is retarded. We must be nearing an extinction level event.

 

[S2007S]

I graduated high school in 2008(hence why I got so curious about the stock market), but graduated college in 2013. Maybe I should have phrased it better.

Lol....and yes we are in 2015....but I believe we are in a stock market analogy of the late 1983's-early 1984.
If I had the funds/time, I'd do a more in depth analysis of the world economies around that time such as interest rates, U.S. dollar, commodities, oil.

On a side note, VIX futures has broken key support levels and ZB has hit a target that coincided with a resistance level. Very strange how all these things coincide isn't it?

Everything could change tomorrow like it did with Friday, but hope it might be use to some other traders here.

When did you start trading?

I started before the dot com collapse....

So I have been through the markets up and downs for quite sometime!

Some of the articles I have read in the last 6 years or so about these young kids getting into investing and some even doing well have never ever witnessed a bear market or even a collapse of the one we experienced in 2008-2009....I think the next collapse is going to catch about 90% of the new players into the market over the last 6 years by a big surprise!!!

 

[NoVoodooHere]

omg the irony. This clown is now making reference to PTJ after graduating from a top-100K school and daytrading one lots for a few years. This generation is retarded. We must be nearing an extinction level event.

LOL don't be too rough, he's a kid after all