We can now see clearly to the outcome of Trump's Tariffs.

[Covertibility]

Exclusive: As Trump trashes NAFTA, Mexico turns to Brazilian corn


HICAGO/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican buyers imported ten times more corn from Brazil last year amid concern that NAFTA renegotiations could disrupt their U.S. supplies, according to government data and top grains merchants.

Mexico is on track to buy more Brazilian corn in 2018, which would hurt a U.S. agricultural sector already struggling with low grains prices and the rising competitive threat from South America.

U.S. farmers, food processors and grain traders have spent months trying to prevent trade relationships from falling apart if the North American Free Trade Agreement implodes. They are trying to protect more than $19 billion in sales to Mexican buyers of everything from corn and soybeans to dairy and poultry.

Despite their efforts, South American corn shipments to Mexico are surging. Mexican buyers imported a total of more than 583,000 metric tonnes of Brazilian corn last year – a 970 percent jump over 2016, according to data from Mexico’s Agrifood and Fishery Information Service (SIAP).


The purchases all came in the last four months of last year. They followed visits by Mexican government officials and grains buyers to Brazil and Argentina to explore alternative supply options in the months after U.S. President Donald Trump took office and threatened to tear up the trade pact.

Mexico has long been the top importer of U.S. corn, and is the second largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, giving Mexico leverage in corn-belt states that are staunch Trump supporters but also strongly back the trade status quo.

Mexico’s Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo, who is overseeing Mexico’s NAFTA neogitating team, encouraged the country’s major grain buyers last year to explore South American corn to strengthen his hand at the negotiating table, saying the country needed a “Plan B” in case Washington pulled out of the trade deal.

Cheaper prices for Brazilian corn drove some of purchases by Mexican buyers. But in other cases, they bought Brazilian corn even when it cost more than U.S. supplies, executives and traders told Reuters.

“We bought from Brazil for two reasons,” said Edmundo Miranda, commercial director of Grupo Gramosa, one of Mexico’s top grains merchants. “One, because it was competitive. Two, to see how practical and profitable it was to buy from Brazil or Argentina given the possibility of trade tariffs because of NAFTA renegotiations.”

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Wow all that NAFTA talk and looky there, Mexico buying from other countries. Good job Mr. President.


Trump's tariffs will enrich the special interests at the expense of consumers.

 

[Spike Trader]

Trump Reportedly Broke Another Promise, This Time To Australia
The agreement reportedly occurred during the G20 meeting in Germany last July


Australian media is accusing President Donald Trump of “reneging” on a promise he reportedly made to Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull last year.

Trump “emphatically” promised Turnbull that Australian steel and aluminum would be exempt from any steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the U.S., the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported. The agreement, which was reportedly witnessed by several U.S. and Australian officials, occurred during the G20 meeting in Germany last July.

Turnbull’s government reacted with shock last week when Trump announced that the U.S. would be imposing stiff tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. In the immediate aftermath, Australian Trade Minister Steve Ciobo told local media that he was “seeking urgent clarification” from U.S. officials to see if Australia would be exempt.

“I’m not going to provide a commentary on the Trump administration’s trustworthiness,” Ciobo said on Saturday when it became clear that Australia would likely not be spared.

Any exemptions would ultimately be a decision for Trump, Ciobo said. However, White House officials have made clear that country-specific exemptions were unlikely.

 

[piezoe]

Real tariffs will be levied.

Is about time too. Countries blocking sales of US vehicles are probably going to be targeted as well. Trump is going for restoration of American manufacturing using American metals and American workers. You should be ecstatic.

I am going to tell you something you may not know. Japan drives on the opposite side of the road, and they have some very narrow streets and lots of congestion. People there want smaller cars and the steering wheels on the correct side. When GM tried to sell cars in Japan it didn't go so well. The steering wheels were all on the wrong side and the cars were too big! When Japan tried to sell cars in the U.S. however, they took the pains to put the steering wheels on the left side. They sold a lot of cars here because people were clamoring for smaller, more affordable, more reliable cars. GM in Japan, not so good. Then GM asked for Tariffs against Japanese cars, because the Japanese didn't reciprocate by buying too big, American cars with the steering wheels on the wrong side. (Of course GM didn't bother to mention these "little" details.)

What does this story tell us? It tells us that there are other reasons, beyond unfair trade practices, why exports may not succeed!

 

[fhl]

You may still be thinking that real tariffs will actually be imposed. That's not how Trump operates, what comes out of his mouth publicly is not what materializes. Recall his attempted negotiation with Mexico's President. Trump tried to get Mexico to pretend they were paying for the Wall while offering to reimburse Mexico under the table. Of course Mexico's President, in effect, told Donald to go fuck himself. The American electorate should take a lesson from Mexico's President and, in effect, tell Donald the same thing in November that Enrique Peña Nieto told Donald last year.

I don't know if there will be tariffs or not. But I'm not the one Trump is targeting politically. It's democrats in industrial states that he's pitching and those are the people you think are morons for believing him. Democrats.

It's become apparent that there will be no wall or deportations because he thinks those of us who want it have got nowhere else to go.

But the tariffs are aimed at democrats in key states. He knows they do have somewhere else to go and therefore they're either going to get the tariffs or they're going to get some kind of deal from those other countries to limit imports. Because he can't take that set of voters for granted. It will be one or the other. Tariffs or some kind of agreement to limit imports.

 

[gwb-trading]

You're talking about policies which foster free trade and break down barriers. Trumps interests are different; they're political, i.e., What do I need to tell my supporters so I can ride free on Air Force One for four more years?

Actually it is "what can I tell the business executives in the steel industry who support me so they will donate so I can ride on Air Force One for four more years?"

 

[Nine_Ender]

The issue with Tariffs is that Trump needs to create "mirror" tariffs to remedy the trade situation on a country by country basis. So if China has a 35% percent levy on American refrigerators then we will charge a 35% tariff on refrigerators from China. Do this on a product by product basis for each country -- you will soon find these other countries dropping their unfair tariffs which have hurt American exports.

The strategy of mirror tariffs is the same one adopted by EU countries to force Japan / China to stop charging absurd tariffs on European cars. Germany and other countries put a mirror tariffs on automobiles into effect and within months these other nations dropped their automobile tariffs to reasonable levels -- opening their markets to "foreign" cars.

Consumer prices will go up immediately if the tariffs stick. Certain sectors of the US economy are already being restrained by new tariffs; US home builders need Canadian lumber but it's artificially expensive now. Trump has no idea what he is doing. Everyone else is scrambling trying to contain the damage.

From a Canadian perspective, we run a small trade deficit with the US where you make a ton of money on services and we have a surplus on raw materials. It's a great relationship for the US. If Trump wants to end that great relationship, so be it. We can slap tariffs on services that will have a meaningful impact on your economy, we can stop exporting cheap hydro to the US, we can stop selling Oil at below market prices. Might hurt some Canadians short term but probably more of a net negative for Americans. Again, like many recent US initiatives, it's mostly unnecessary pain implemented by design by American politicians with the expressed approval of the majority of Americans. So good luck with your medical insurance premiums, trade protectionism, gun violence. You made these choices.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

we can stop selling Oil at below market prices. Might hurt some Canadians short term but probably more of a net negative for Americans. .

Not really. It's the other way round.

OPEC got away with it until they didn't. Now they play games with how to hold down production to drive up costs but it just causes the Americans to produce more and more.

Your economy is dependent on selling oil to the Americans, and if you cut back you will wake up and find that we have backfilled with our own production. Plus there are plenty of new sources around the world and- once Maduro is moved out in Venezuela- we will partner with them to bring their production back on line. So don't get too cocky. As the saying goes: "when America gets the flu, Canada gets pneumonia."

In regard to trade surpluses or deficits with Canada, trade negotiations are and should be around sectors- not just a snapshot of the whole country-to-country picture. Trump will look at all of that as part of NAFTA.

Also, if Canada thinks it wants to play games with the Americans in regard to oil prices or availability, just let us know. We can kill the completion of the Keystone Pipeline in a New York minute.

 

[Snarkhund]

I am going to tell you something you may not know. Japan drives on the opposite side of the road, and they have some very narrow streets and lots of congestion. People there want smaller cars and the steering wheels on the correct side. When GM tried to sell cars in Japan it didn't go so well. The steering wheels were all on the wrong side and the cars were too big! When Japan tried to sell cars in the U.S. however, they took the pains to put the steering wheels on the left side. They sold a lot of cars here because people were clamoring for smaller, more affordable, more reliable cars. GM in Japan, not so good. Then GM asked for Tariffs against Japanese cars, because the Japanese didn't reciprocate by buying too big, American cars with the steering wheels on the wrong side. (Of course GM didn't bother to mention these "little" details.)

What does this story tell us? It tells us that there are other reasons, beyond unfair trade practices, why exports may not succeed!

Well that is all true. US car makers fail to supply right-hand-drive cars and that is a problem. But in Japan there are other restrictions making it nearly impossible to even establish a car dealership there. There is layer upon layer of obstacles to selling a foreign car in Japan.

I visited Tokyo on business and noticed all the gaijins driving Aston Martins (with right hand drive). Quite a few of them work at Bloomberg there.

 

[Cuddles]

Exclusive: As Trump trashes NAFTA, Mexico turns to Brazilian corn


HICAGO/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican buyers imported ten times more corn from Brazil last year amid concern that NAFTA renegotiations could disrupt their U.S. supplies, according to government data and top grains merchants.

Mexico is on track to buy more Brazilian corn in 2018, which would hurt a U.S. agricultural sector already struggling with low grains prices and the rising competitive threat from South America.

U.S. farmers, food processors and grain traders have spent months trying to prevent trade relationships from falling apart if the North American Free Trade Agreement implodes. They are trying to protect more than $19 billion in sales to Mexican buyers of everything from corn and soybeans to dairy and poultry.

Despite their efforts, South American corn shipments to Mexico are surging. Mexican buyers imported a total of more than 583,000 metric tonnes of Brazilian corn last year – a 970 percent jump over 2016, according to data from Mexico’s Agrifood and Fishery Information Service (SIAP).


The purchases all came in the last four months of last year. They followed visits by Mexican government officials and grains buyers to Brazil and Argentina to explore alternative supply options in the months after U.S. President Donald Trump took office and threatened to tear up the trade pact.

Mexico has long been the top importer of U.S. corn, and is the second largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, giving Mexico leverage in corn-belt states that are staunch Trump supporters but also strongly back the trade status quo.

Mexico’s Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo, who is overseeing Mexico’s NAFTA neogitating team, encouraged the country’s major grain buyers last year to explore South American corn to strengthen his hand at the negotiating table, saying the country needed a “Plan B” in case Washington pulled out of the trade deal.

Cheaper prices for Brazilian corn drove some of purchases by Mexican buyers. But in other cases, they bought Brazilian corn even when it cost more than U.S. supplies, executives and traders told Reuters.

“We bought from Brazil for two reasons,” said Edmundo Miranda, commercial director of Grupo Gramosa, one of Mexico’s top grains merchants. “One, because it was competitive. Two, to see how practical and profitable it was to buy from Brazil or Argentina given the possibility of trade tariffs because of NAFTA renegotiations.”

-----------
-----------

Wow all that NAFTA talk and looky there, Mexico buying from other countries. Good job Mr. President.


Trump's tariffs will enrich the special interests at the expense of consumers.

Sad, since it decimates the rain forest too. American land has already been logged down and is ready to farm.

 

[elderado]

And now, for something completely different! (Well, perhaps not. Quite a good read for those who have a spot of tea to go with it.)

https://theconservativetreehouse.co...tariffs-and-an-introduction-to-liu-zhongtian/