We are in a slow motion Crash!

Guess what guys? While you are explaining your opinionated view to me, the ES is now selling off headed for that dreaded neckline.

You can smack yourselves around all day trying to convince yourselves or you can sit there and read the truth. Please stop being delusional.
 
Quote from PlinytheTrader:

Please explain what equity bubble you are referring to that is in the process of being unwound? The market is just now recovering from the last major decline from a few years ago. Bubbles are defined by blind euphoria and an overall feeling of the market being a can't lose proposition (dot.com craze and real estate bubble if you want some examples). I hardly view the current market being in that situation, everyone is scared of the next big drop and many investors remain on the sidelines due to the fear of the last decline happening again. If there had been a true equity bubble even people like you and GrandSuperCycle would have been on board with max leverage on long positions.
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Great post; if there was a bubble blup2012 would be on here screaming Long!! you can't lose
 
Quote from blowingup2012:

Thats easy to explain. By historical standards we are still way over-valued.

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Valuation-Overview.php

Yet we have another poster here accusing me of being yet another alias. First it was NODOJI and then EMG. I have lost track of all the users you think I am. You are all living in one big delusion.
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Trying to apply a specific value to the market from which it must regress to the mean is a sure way to lose money.

While I agree with the general thesis behind the saying "History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes", trying to tie that general thesis to specific actions is almost always going to end in tears. The history of the markets is littered with countless examples of this.

Much better to build a quantitative and objective model of the market and wait for the data to tell you when a real turn is likely to be in effect. Even then, your conclusion will still be subject to the fact that we can only deal in probabilities when it comes to markets.

The evidence that we have so far, i.e. the data on prices since the market's most recent price high, is too slender a reed to make it bear the conclusions you want to draw. These kinds of turns take time to play out.

I'm actually trying to help you become a better trader by telling you this, so, don't shoot the messenger.
 
Quote from logic_man:

I'm actually trying to help you become a better trader by telling you this, so, don't shoot the messenger.
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Haha! This is so typical of ET. So many people trying to "help" us all out. Look, why dont you post your brokerage statements for the last year so we can evaluate your performance and then we can make an informed decision whether or not we want you "helping" us out.

Time after time people like yourself insist you are trying to be teachers or helpers while you sit there in some below average home driving around in a beatup Honda. Come on now, thats the lifestyle we are all trying to escape and we dont need your help if thats the lifestyle you lead.
 
Quote from blowingup2012:

Haha! This is so typical of ET. So many people trying to "help" us all out. Look, why dont you post your brokerage statements for the last year so we can evaluate your performance and then we can make an informed decision whether or not we want you "helping" us out.

Time after time people like yourself insist you are trying to be teachers or helpers while you sit there in some below average home driving around in a beatup Honda. Come on now, thats the lifestyle we are all trying to escape and we dont need your help if thats the lifestyle you lead.
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And yet you've failed to notice the correlation between the "typical ET" mentality of calling tops and your own. Clearly, self-awareness is not your forte.

If you think the path to riches is paved by the kind of approach to trading that motivates threads like "We are in a slow motion Crash", have at it. Just realize that if what you say about the "typical ET" poster is true, they should all be rich because that is exactly the kind of thread that gets posted here every single time the market turns down a percent or two.

If you are really curious about whether I can help you or not, look at my posting history, the kinds of threads I start (none of them have jack to do with 'market calls', I'll tell you that), what I've said about my recent performance and my personal background, and then determine if I know what I am talking about. I've already helped you more than I probably should have just by telling you to learn to be patient and I certainly won't be making that mistake again.
 
Quote from blowingup2012:

Guess what guys? While you are explaining your opinionated view to me, the ES is now selling off headed for that dreaded neckline.

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You really think that everyone in the world doesn't see that "dreaded neckline"? You think the people with the money to move the markets "dread" a freaking "neckline"? They are running algorithms where each price print in that "dreaded neckline" is just another piece of data in a time series, not anything they weigh in actual decision-making.

If that comment is indicative of your level of market analysis, you have absolutely no clue and any congruence between your market call and reality is purely coincidental.
 
Quote from blowingup2012:

Haha! This is so typical of ET. So many people trying to "help" us all out. Look, why dont you post your brokerage statements for the last year so we can evaluate your performance and then we can make an informed decision whether or not we want you "helping" us out.
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You are so funny because you call him out as being "typical ET" when in fact you are the most stereotypical ET poster of all. Everything is doom and gloom and you use 4 point moves in the ES as evidence of the big impending collapse that you predict every day on multiple threads. And if anyone questions you or provides sound advice against your opinion you go straight to the "well show us your brokerage statements" card trying to deflect the conversation and hoping to discredit the messenger. You might as well just go with the always classic comeback line of "oh yeah, well what kind of car do you drive?", oh wait you did that when you referred to his hypothetical beat up Honda. Well let me just save you the time and I will finish the rest of the conversation for you in true ET fasion...
"those statements won't work, they need to be audited"...
"you could easily photo shop those"...
"you are using a demo account"...
"day trading is dead".....

followed by not posting when the market has up days. I know, I know, we get it...just buy gold.
 
Quote from PlinytheTrader:

You are so funny because you call him out as being "typical ET" when in fact you are the most stereotypical ET poster of all.
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If I had to guess, he probably doesn't think he's stereotypical because there tends to be a short life for the posters like him, so they are gone by the time the next top caller starts posting. After he's gone, there will be another.

If I had a dollar for each top that was not an actual top, I could retire.
 
Quote from logic_man:


If you are really curious about whether I can help you or not, look at my posting history, the kinds of threads I start...
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Haha! This is more ET "logic" for us to consider. We should be listening to this person because he authors a lot of posts on ET. Anyone who falls for that nonsense deserves to have their money taken from them.
 
Quote from PlinytheTrader:

You might as well just go with the always classic comeback line of "oh yeah, well what kind of car do you drive?"
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I believe seeing some kind of verifiable history is very reasonable. Sure I will listen when I see some kind of proof that the person is who they claim to be. If "logic_man" is really someone who should be teaching trading then I want to see their statements and what kind of life they really lead.
 
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