We are entering a Bull Market! Why? B.c. ET members (dumb money) is overly bearish

Quote from monty21:

My concept is very simple... not to be disrespectful or anything, but a public forum of "traders" is representative of dumb money. The vast majority of ET members remain extremely bearish even in light of this recent earnings season rally. Don't fight the tape!

I for one do think that the economic situation is very bad... unemployment is high, money supply is out of control (hence a weak dollar), people are still losing their homes/defaulting, there's no stability in the price of crude oil, exceptionally low consumer confidence, etc. But I will disprove myself by saying this... the stock market is a leading indicator whereas all of these criteria are mainly laggards.

Secondly, I'm going to treat myself to a history lesson. There have been so many "dooms day" aka the world is coming to an end predictions, and ALL have been wrong. We suffer recessions every decade, so what makes this so different? Perhaps it's "worse" than most other recessions, but it is what it is. No two times are identical. Booms and busts are part of the game. While it looks like the world is coming to an end, history shows that these bubbles happen all the time.

I was a bear too, until recent price action proved me wrong. Call them bear rallies or whatever you wish but I'm not fighting the tape. There is plenty of money left on the sidelines to sustain this move. Price action, price action, price action. Dow is above 9000 and S&P approaching 1000 from the 650 lows. Call it whatever you want, but someone is buying.... And it's not ET members, but institutions.

These past two weeks have been exceptional... even with lower expectations on earnings. Nasdaq was up 12 days in a row! 12 days! Would've been another day had MSFT not disappointed.
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The problem is that there is no catalyst for growth going foreward. The american consumer of the last 5 years was mostly able to buy stuff based on credit, based on overly inflated housing prices, while i agree we may be headed higher in the short term it is not sustainable if fundamentals do not follow, i can not find any fundamental possibility for the american consumer to be reinflated to old levels. Unless there is a new bubble new rallies are unsustainable. The other thing is if the government is forced to balance the budget at current levels this will be disastrous for the U.S. You can not cut interest rates anymore, and you cant cut taxes, so there is absolutely no catalyst for growth, barring some kind of unforeseen new technology bubble.
 
Quote from dwl603:

i can not find any fundamental possibility for the american consumer to be reinflated to old levels. Unless there is a new bubble new rallies are unsustainable.
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I can give you a few trillion reasons.

$$$$$
 
Quote from Clubber Lang:

I can give you a few trillion reasons.

$$$$$
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Yeah i guess the one possibility which exists is inflating out of the mess. I guess that is also one of the more likely scenarios, but what does it matter if the reason why the market goes up is inflation, the reason we try to invest is to produce money to make our standard of living better, if the only answer is inflating out of the mess it is not real money, infact if you think the way out of the mess is inflation, then i would argue that this will hurt the U.S. standard of living much worse than a flat market as the U.S. is a net importer of goods, and the USD is the most likely to collapse under the given situation. I still say the amount of money american consumers lost from the credit bubble bursting exceeds the amount coming into the system from the government.
 
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