Wave 3 of 3 of 3 down in S&P has begun...

Being short is already a crowded trade: US stocks post best September since 1939:

Analysts said the rise in both the S&P and short sales signals the September rally did not result from “short covering”, in which investors buy back shares to close out short positions. “We find that investors have been increasingly shorting the stocks that have performed the best,” said Kevin Pleines, analyst at Birinyi Associates.
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If they included every thread on ET looking for the end of the world as we know it, it would get even more crowded.
Every time there's a dip, another one (or two, or three) of these threads gets opened. If that doesn't tell you something...
 
Quote from trefoil:

Being short is already a crowded trade: US stocks post best September since 1939:



If they included every thread on ET looking for the end of the world as we know it, it would get even more crowded.
Every time there's a dip, another one (or two, or three) of these threads gets opened. If that doesn't tell you something...
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First time I've opened a call-related thread since April 1st 2010, which I nailed.

Gold Breakout Today (4/1/10) - Long Term

Sure one good call shouldn't validate this one, but just a bit of background of success in the past. Good luck all
 
If you're right, you'll get to crow. If you're wrong, this thread will disappear.
You are, basically, looking for a repeat of 1929 to 1932. Very low probability. Certainly something to hedge against, as long as a person makes sure the hedge doesn't cost much. But not really something to bet on.
 
Quote from trefoil:

If you're right, you'll get to crow. If you're wrong, this thread will disappear.
You are, basically, looking for a repeat of 1929 to 1932. Very low probability. Certainly something to hedge against, as long as a person makes sure the hedge doesn't cost much. But not really something to bet on.
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It may not be something to bet on without proper risk management. I've gone short with essentially a 4 point stop and am looking at a reward of 500-800 points. On the conservative side that's a 1:100 r/r ratio. We're all just playing probabilities, of course, and I believed it to be a much greater than 1% chance of occurring given my analysis.
 
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