I copied this chart from TraderTim's website. This says exactly what I am thinking. The greater amount of times a price tests a certain point and the longer the price stays in a certain range, then the more explosive the outcome will be.
In this case, the SPX has been stuck in this range for over a month and the trend line has been tested twice and going for round 3.
Another indicator is the following:
Goldman Sachs . . . GS . . . . -$5.90 -2.64%
Morgan Stanley . . . MS . . . . -$2.20 -3.03%
Merryll Lynch . . . MER . . . . -$3.02 -3.54%
Lehman Brothers . . LEH . . . -$2.20 -3.03%
Bear Stearns . . . BSC . . . . -$5.93 -4.12%
Amex . . . AXP . . . . . . . . -$2.14 -3.43%
CitiCorp . . . C . . . . . . . . -$0.60 -1.163%
JP Morgan Chase . . JPM . . .-$1.28 -2.62%
Bank of America . . . BAC . . -$0.45 -0.92%
The financials are taking it on the chin lately, not a good sign.
The market is seperating itself. In fact, the following is very telling:
Russell Value 1000- -1.63%
Russell Value 2000- -2.01%
Rusell Mid-Cap Value- -1.55%
Russell 3000 Value- -1.66%
Russell 1000- -1.4%
Russell 2000- -1.85%
Russell Mid-Cap- -1.4%
Russell 3000- -1.44%
Russell Growth 1000- -1.18%
Russell Growth 2000- -1.69%
Russell Growth Mid-Cap- -1.28%
Russell Growth 3000- -1.23%
The pattern emerging is that value is out and growth is in. The SPX is now a value oriented index and will fall. Value stocks tend to fall much more slowly then their growth counterparts.
I maintain my price target on the SPX at 1430 and longer term target of 1130.
On pullbacks, buy mid-cap growth and dump value at every opportunity.
The number of mindless idiots and losing traders in this thread demonstrates to me that my prediction will come true very shortly.