Quote from Lorenzo:
11700 next target for the DOW....
that is a pretty cool graph
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
waterfall decline underway?
- Thread starter LT701
- Start date
that is a pretty cool graph
i'm not a big fan of elliot wave, on a daily basis, it's a bunch of hooey contually hedged by the ever present 'alternate wave count'
but on big picture cycles, it can explain the three major waves of early accumulation, broad market participation, and blowoff top, with corrective waves in between, making 5 waves
we may well have seen this since 2003
but on big picture cycles, it can explain the three major waves of early accumulation, broad market participation, and blowoff top, with corrective waves in between, making 5 waves
we may well have seen this since 2003
3:00 pm est.
What happens there will tell the true tale of the psychology right now.
What happens there will tell the true tale of the psychology right now.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
3:00 pm est.
What happens there will tell the true tale of the psychology right now.
that's a tough call
if this really is the start of a bear, they've got to keep hope alive
they've got to suck in buyers that think it's a bottom, they 've got to keep people in hoping for a better price to get out, that never comes
of course, if it's not the start of a bear, then they're doing the opposite
Quote from LT701:
that's a tough call
if this really is the start of a bear, they've got to keep hope alive
they've got to suck in buyers that think it's a bottom, they 've got to keep people in hoping for a better price to get out, that never comes
of course, if it's not the start of a bear, then they're doing the opposite
I agree.
But here's the problem. If hedge fund investors panic, which i believe they will (history repeating itself), you're going to see massive redemptions on the part of anyone who can get out (even before they get their statements). 1.5 trillion in hedge fund funny money, leveraged to the hill.
This is exactly the type of thing that leads to cascading panic.
Liquidity crunch
Inverted yield curve
Stocks crashing
Subprime/Midprime loan crisis
Greenspan dropping the "R" bomb
Yen carry trade unwinding
Emerging markets tanking
Decelerating corporate earnings
Wall street issues with order execution at the NYSE, and insider trading scandal, and backdated option issues
What else will be added to the list?
regarding prime broker or hedge fund blow-up:
This on Bloomberg today
"Goldman, Merrill, Morgan Stanley are almost "junk", their own traders say"
i.e their CDS are being priced right at a tad above BBB- spreads while their official credit ratings are several levels higher well in the investment grade department.
Somebody smells something I think
This on Bloomberg today
"Goldman, Merrill, Morgan Stanley are almost "junk", their own traders say"
i.e their CDS are being priced right at a tad above BBB- spreads while their official credit ratings are several levels higher well in the investment grade department.
Somebody smells something I think
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I agree.
But here's the problem. If hedge fund investors panic, which i believe they will (history repeating itself), you're going to see massive redemptions on the part of anyone who can get out (even before they get their statements). 1.5 trillion in hedge fund funny money, leveraged to the hill.
This is exactly the type of thing that leads to cascading panic.
Liquidity crunch
Stocks crashing
Subprime/Midprime loan crisis
Greenspan dropping the "R" bomb
Yen carry trade unwinding
Emerging markets tanking
Decelerating corporate earnings
Wall street issues with order execution at the NYSE, and insider trading scandal, and backdated option issues
What else will be added to the list?
You can add the spread between corporate's and treasuries finally starting to widen today, and not just the junk either.
Quote from Diamond Geezer:
regarding prime broker or hedge fund blow-up:
This on Bloomberg today
"Goldman, Merrill, Morgan Stanley are almost "junk", their own traders say"
i.e their CDS are being priced right at a tad above BBB- spreads while their official credit ratings are several levels higher well in the investment grade department.
Somebody smells something I think
Can you post a link?