AAL price was $34 on may 10, 2019. $34 x 143m = $4.86B, not $1.5B
Obviously that graph is showing the current price of AAL, not the price he paid.
Warren Buffett says Berkshire sold all its airline stocks because of the coronavirus
- Thread starter ironchef
- Start date
AAL price was $34 on may 10, 2019. $34 x 143m = $4.86B, not $1.5B
Obviously that graph is showing the current price of AAL, not the price he paid.
They have to report, the exact date of selling, only, when they own more than 20%.
Their stake was 9.73%, thus it means, that by the time this report came out, there could have been only 1% left from the initial 9.73%.
Am i correct on this one ?
(since 2006, it would have been at least, another $60B. At the very least.)
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Boeing usually has backlog of orders so should be busy still even with temporary slow down of travel and airlines cutting back. To evaluate Boeing you need to look at their backlog and how long it is versus how many orders were cancelled. The bigger issues is after the Boeing 737MAX fiasco, many companies cancelled orders and they had more cancellations than orders. Now Corona slowdown will also lead to more cancellations.
"Boeing delivered 380 commercial airplanes in 2019, the lowest level since 2007, and fewer than half the 786 planes its main rival Airbus delivered last year, a record for the European jet maker.
and
Boein BAg customers cancelled 150 orders for the 737 MAX in March 2020, and the plane maker’s commercial backlog fell by a net 307 planes in the first quarter as it accounted for orders that airlines are now unlikely to take delivery of as they struggle to survive a steep drop-off in travel amid the coronavirus pandemic.
So if you are a contrarian you would be getting into BA now when they have had a PR fiasco in the 737MAX, numerous order cancellations and have half hte new ordes that Airbus has. But either BA or Airbus have a lot more downside so you would be way premature and sit through a lot of shit.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/18/better-buy-boeing-vs-airbus.aspx
Forget Buffet for a second, it is a crappy time to touch airlines and airplane makers. As for airlines, same with oil companies, if you find a solid company with solid financials whose price took a huge hit and you can sit on it for 1 - 2 years, then it could be a good investment. But as a short term swing trade? Way to much risk as people start returning to fly this summer they will see corporate travel budgets slashed and personal travel reduced significantly due to large unemployment.
"Boeing delivered 380 commercial airplanes in 2019, the lowest level since 2007, and fewer than half the 786 planes its main rival Airbus delivered last year, a record for the European jet maker.
and
Boein BAg customers cancelled 150 orders for the 737 MAX in March 2020, and the plane maker’s commercial backlog fell by a net 307 planes in the first quarter as it accounted for orders that airlines are now unlikely to take delivery of as they struggle to survive a steep drop-off in travel amid the coronavirus pandemic.
So if you are a contrarian you would be getting into BA now when they have had a PR fiasco in the 737MAX, numerous order cancellations and have half hte new ordes that Airbus has. But either BA or Airbus have a lot more downside so you would be way premature and sit through a lot of shit.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/18/better-buy-boeing-vs-airbus.aspx
Forget Buffet for a second, it is a crappy time to touch airlines and airplane makers. As for airlines, same with oil companies, if you find a solid company with solid financials whose price took a huge hit and you can sit on it for 1 - 2 years, then it could be a good investment. But as a short term swing trade? Way to much risk as people start returning to fly this summer they will see corporate travel budgets slashed and personal travel reduced significantly due to large unemployment.
Attachments
Up untill today he recovered around 9% which equals $15 billion. Still a long way to go.
What is sure is that end of Q4/2019 all airline stocks were not sold.
In the filing F13 of Q4/2019 there were these airlines in porfolio: $10 billion
At that time it was floating at ~$25 / ~31. Had plenty of time to get rid of it.
(at least AAL)
But who knows.
Actually, i wrote it once today as a joke, next time some virus in 20 years hits, im insta short the whole air flight sector
(ofcourse not),
but for Buffet, like Dalio said, after that many years of experience, it should have been just another one of those, thus , wouldn't be surprised, if he actually met those lows, almost empty handed.
Given the fact that Munger is 30% into China (lots of connections)
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/war...s-part-of-delta-southwest-airline-stakes.html
Key Points
“We did not take out anything like $7 or $8 billion and that was my mistake,” Buffett said at the company’s annual meeting which was livestreamed. “I am the one who made the decision.”
So probably he sold at bad prices.
13 million Delta shares were at Q4/2019 in the books for $760 million and sold for $314 million beginning of April.
2.3 million Southwest shares were at Q4/2019 in the books for $124 million and sold for $74 million beginning of April.
This should give an idea of what later the liquidiation of all the remaining shares will have cost as prices were going down.
Key Points
- According to regulatory filings, Berkshire sold nearly 13 million Delta shares for about $314 million and roughly 2.3 million Southwest shares for about $74 million.
- The sales were conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, the filings show.
- Berkshire previously owned about 11.1% of Delta stock and 10.4% of Southwest stock, according to Refinitiv data.
- No reasons for the sales were given.
“We did not take out anything like $7 or $8 billion and that was my mistake,” Buffett said at the company’s annual meeting which was livestreamed. “I am the one who made the decision.”
So probably he sold at bad prices.
13 million Delta shares were at Q4/2019 in the books for $760 million and sold for $314 million beginning of April.
2.3 million Southwest shares were at Q4/2019 in the books for $124 million and sold for $74 million beginning of April.
This should give an idea of what later the liquidiation of all the remaining shares will have cost as prices were going down.