Warren Buffet on Black Scholes.
- Thread starter just21
- Start date
As to the first response - I know that owners of message boards get threats from public figures about libel. So I was just making it clear, I am well within the law to critique a public figure and clearly state I am speculating based on the facts we know.
to the more recent response - you seem to confuse a presumption found useful in a court of law to protect those wrongfully accused of a crime with reality. I make many conclusions based on best available knowledge. I understand the level of that knowledge. Given what I know I would not say that I know for a fact Buffet is a dirtball because he know that Moodys was screwing over teacher's pension funds as he was arguing about their taxes.
But, I would say there is a very good chance he knew. (unless there was some sort of law in place preventing him from knowing how moodys rates bonds.)
Perhaps OJ did not kill his wife because he was not proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. But then he did kill his wife when a civil court found him liable.
Warren understands options very well. What he did not understand before, and I think he now understands, is the existence and the effect of the random walker. With his margin of safety, he used to think that they is frontier in the south where Mr. Market cannot go with a high prob. Now he gets it (it being the effect of the random walker on the probs).
However what many people here did not seem to get is that Warren's losses are in the books only. A reason why people lose is that they are taken out of their positions, because of limited margin which is equivalent to a limited amount of cash.
So his losses, unless they cause his bankruptcy, would only cause a depression in stock, and then later a huge rally in the same stock is the stock were not to price the effect of random walker on the current losses.
Warren 's stock is a call option on the short puts , which can be played with a perpetual option.
The old man will win again. Time is his friend, as well as his brilliance to sell options outside an organized exchange where does not post collateral.
PS: I wrote in just few posts ago on this part of the forum that people do not generally understand margin rules. Warren understands very well.
However what many people here did not seem to get is that Warren's losses are in the books only. A reason why people lose is that they are taken out of their positions, because of limited margin which is equivalent to a limited amount of cash.
So his losses, unless they cause his bankruptcy, would only cause a depression in stock, and then later a huge rally in the same stock is the stock were not to price the effect of random walker on the current losses.
Warren 's stock is a call option on the short puts , which can be played with a perpetual option.
The old man will win again. Time is his friend, as well as his brilliance to sell options outside an organized exchange where does not post collateral.
PS: I wrote in just few posts ago on this part of the forum that people do not generally understand margin rules. Warren understands very well.
I agreed with you, this old man will win again if you take time into consideration ..
I just searched this thread. I did not see where I said he belongs in Jail.
But, I would no have no problem seeing him go to jail if he were guilty of a crime beyond a reasonable doubt.
I would like to see a criminal investigation into what Moody's was actually doing and what Buffett knew.
I would be surprised if Moody's did not breach fiduciary duties.
then the fun would begin.