Warren 2020

TreeFrogTrader said:
Where's that massive sticky lead that Biden allegedly has show in that data that you just put up?
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1. The name of the thread is Warren2020. You named it. It’s about well Elizabeth Warren I’m 2020. I guess you don’t like when she has rough days but I suppose this is the appropriate place to put information related to her whether you like it or not. Tough cookies for you.

2. Biden’s support is actually surprisingly sticky in Iowa. He doesn’t need too much out of Iowa but enough to get some delegates. If Biden wins Iowa the party is over.

What I will say about Iowa is I would not be surprised to see Buttigieg fall from the top and Klobuchar come in later and win. That’s not a prediction just Buttigieg May have peaked too early and his fall, if he has one, may create a lane for Klobuchar.

Now a candidate like Klobuchar winning Iowa or NH is very different than Warren or Sanders. That could shake up the race.
 
UsualName said:
1. The name of the thread is Warren2020. You named it. It’s about well Elizabeth Warren I’m 2020.
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Okay. My question about Biden and the data you put up did not work for ya. Got it.

You can answer it over in the Biden2020 thread if that works for ya. I suspect that it does not.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
Okay. My question about Biden and the data you put up did not work for ya. Got it.

You can answer it over in the Biden2020 thread if that works for ya. I suspect that it does not.
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Joe Biden isn’t that interesting in Iowa even though he has a chance at winning the state.

For Warren I would argue she needs to win both Iowa and NH to be a serious contender for the nomination.
 
UsualName said:
Joe Biden isn’t that interesting in Iowa even though he has a chance at winning the state.

For Warren I would argue she needs to win both Iowa and NH to be a serious contender for the nomination.
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Not really.

Votes in Iowa are going to get split up pretty severely between biden, poco, sanders, and bootyboy. But biden, sanders, and bootyboy are never going to be the nominee, so where are those votes eventually going to go?

Ditto for NH, you have all the leading candidates claiming they are the best buddy next door who is bonded at the hip with NH. Next door Bernie in Vermont, next door, Poco in Mass, next door Deval in Mass and so on. So that muddies the picture not only for the aforementioned candidates but for Booty as well because it absorbs all the available votes which he needs to have a strong showing. And if he still ends out with a strong showing, then it still muddies the picture bigtime because he is not ever going to be the nominee and eventually those votes need to find another home.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
Not really.

Votes in Iowa are going to get split up pretty severely between biden, poco, sanders, and bootyboy. But biden, sanders, and bootyboy are never going to be the nominee, so where are those votes eventually going to go?

Ditto for NH, you have all the leading candidates claiming they are the best buddy next door who is bonded at the hip with NH. Next door Bernie in Vermont, next door, Poco in Mass, next door Deval in Mass and so on. So that muddies the picture not only for the aforementioned candidates but for Booty as well because it absorbs all the available votes which he needs to have a strong showing. And if he still ends out with a strong showing, then it still muddies the picture bigtime because he is not ever going to be the nominee and eventually those votes need to find another home.
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Hey, not for nothing, you may want to actually look at the democrat primary rules when you analyze this stuff. Winning a state makes a big difference in delegates awarded and these early states are not delegate rich.

Even if we go into the convention with four front runners, the difference will be who won the state’s. Warren has to win some states.
 
UsualName said:
Winning a state makes a big difference in delegates awarded and these early states are not delegate rich.

.
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It is good to win and get delegates even in small delegate states, especially if you are trying for a win on the first ballot where delegates are committed to their states, and superdelegates are not allowed on the first ballot.

But no one in their right frigging mind thinks that we are not going to multiple rounds at the convention and a massive amount of sausage making. So I stay with the point that the early states -at least Iowa and NH- will get split up in a way that is not indicative of how the other states and the convention will go. It is either a bug or a feature of dem primaries that they have/allow a couple states to have early primaries that are not representative of the rest of the country. Then they go ker-plop right into Super Tuesday. Kind of dumb and not particularly helpful to either the candidates or the voters.

Anyway, just so that you do not get lost in the weeds here, I will reiterate.

Joe Biden is not going to be the nominee.

Elizabeth Warren is going to be the nominee.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
It is good to win and get delegates even in small delegate states, especially if you are trying for a win on the first ballot where delegates are committed to their states, and superdelegates are not allowed on the first ballot.

But no one in their right frigging mind thinks that we are not going to multiple rounds at the convention and a massive amount of sausage making. So I stay with the point that the early states -at least Iowa and NH- will get split up in a way that is not indicative of how the other states and the convention will go. It is either a bug or a feature of dem primaries that they have/allow a couple states to have early primaries that are not representative of the rest of the country. Then they go ker-plop right into Super Tuesday. Kind of dumb and not particularly helpful to either the candidates or the voters.

Anyway, just so that you do not get lost in the weeds here, I will reiterate.

Joe Biden is not going to be the nominee.

Elizabeth Warren is going to be the nominee.
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Yes, all know you have made your predictions here. You’ll just have to excuse the rest of us as we are still trying to figure it out.
 
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