You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Warning: The Next Wave Down Starts Now
- Thread starter jackstone54
- Start date
Quote from Topsurfi:
maybe you could enlighten us what your text book analysis tells us why the S&P did not fall to 1150 but is trading close to 1400 now ?
The question is not whether the S&P will go to 1150 (it most likely will, depending on how much the fed pumps the market -- but i think they can't do much more without being very, very clever because the general populace is going to get very antsy due to runaway food and energy.
The problem with Jackstone's idiotic guesses is that he uses words like "now". I noticed you also used that word. I hope you are not ruling out the fairly good probability that the S&P will revisit its lows, and possibly lower, sometime in the next 24 months. Don't we wish we knew when though?
We are, afterall, at the very beginning of what looks to be a serious recession , and we are on the economic down slope, not the up. Nevertheless, you won't catch me saying we are not going to 1450 in the near term. I want to stay in touch with reality (something the market only does with great reluctance).
Quote from LT701:
there is one pattern that is more reliable than anything, and we see it over and over again
some guy starts a thread, and he's 100% sure he's 'got it all figured out' and....
Yes. i'm going to start taking the opposite of these 100% certainty-guaranteed calls with a demo account to see how much money I'd make.
I have a feeling, it would be a decent strategy
Hi Piezoe,
I don't exclude anything. That makes me different from Jackstone.
I think you always need a plan B if the market tells you that you are wrong. As someone said - Hubris kills...
The current situation is difficult. I am neutral right now (was long both lows in January and March) and my best guess is that we will be range bound for a while. The reason why I am not so bullish like I was some time ago is that the sentiment is already quite optimistic right now.
I would not worry to much about food and energy prices because I think we might see them fall hard during the rest of the year.
Recession is already priced in so we only have to see if it might get uglier than most expect. As you might know the prices always make a low when the word "recession" reaches a maximum in public newspapers.
And we might see a dollar devaluation based rally in stocks. Have you ever looked at the S&P in Euro terms ?
People who use these long term charts like Jackstone should try to get inflation corrected charts (real inflation, not the inflation the US-government is faking). We should never forget that we measure the US-indixes in US-Dollar which is a dynamic measure and not static.
I don't exclude anything. That makes me different from Jackstone.
I think you always need a plan B if the market tells you that you are wrong. As someone said - Hubris kills...
The current situation is difficult. I am neutral right now (was long both lows in January and March) and my best guess is that we will be range bound for a while. The reason why I am not so bullish like I was some time ago is that the sentiment is already quite optimistic right now.
I would not worry to much about food and energy prices because I think we might see them fall hard during the rest of the year.
Recession is already priced in so we only have to see if it might get uglier than most expect. As you might know the prices always make a low when the word "recession" reaches a maximum in public newspapers.
And we might see a dollar devaluation based rally in stocks. Have you ever looked at the S&P in Euro terms ?
People who use these long term charts like Jackstone should try to get inflation corrected charts (real inflation, not the inflation the US-government is faking). We should never forget that we measure the US-indixes in US-Dollar which is a dynamic measure and not static.
Quote from piezoe:
The question is not whether the S&P will go to 1150 (it most likely will, depending on how much the fed pumps the market -- but i think they can't do much more without being very, very clever because the general populace is going to get very antsy due to runaway food and energy.
The problem with Jackstone's idiotic guesses is that he uses words like "now". I noticed you also used that word. I hope you are not ruling out the fairly good probability that the S&P will revisit its lows, and possibly lower, sometime in the next 24 months. Don't we wish we knew when though?
We are, afterall, at the very beginning of what looks to be a serious recession , and we are on the economic down slope, not the up. Nevertheless, you won't catch me saying we are not going to 1450 in the near term. I want to stay in touch with reality (something the market only does with great reluctance).
Quote from jackstone54:
Do I have your attention yet fellow traders? I apologize for the flashy headline but I have to get your attention or else you will lose money. Ok, well I doubled down on my shorts and puts today for all of my positions. I want to make it known to anyone who is long in almost any stock, sector or index that the next wave down is about to begin.
There is the theory of the Elliott Wave which states bear markets erupt in three phases. There is an initial leg down followed by a short leg up and then another leg down. This is a complex theory that can easily be misinterpreted and I am by far no expert in it. However, the moral of the story is that the market usually comes in threes. We have experienced the first wave down followed by a short wave up and now we will experience another wave down which will feel real bad to some.
I say this now to everyone here plain and simple. The market is going much much lower. Let me clarify a target for you now. 11000 on the Wilshire 5000 which is 25% lower then today's close. This target is to be reached by the conclusion of this year. Pure and simple.
The recovery will be nice if you still have money to invest and trade. However, by that time many of you will be whipsawed out. Im not certain how many trading blogs I have seen disappear or how many posters have left ET. There have certainly been many whipsawed out already in the current downtrend.
Listen to me, honestly, there are very few sectors, indexes, stocks, futures, etc. that will behave the way you want it during a bear. Only logical thinking contrarian investors like myself who go in on long dated puts will be able to trade through this market successfully.
My wise words of wisdom for those who want to listen and understand are this...get the f*ck out. You heard me. Tommorrow, I want you to close all of your long positions and go to cash. Wait patiently until the end of the year and then jump in on the recovery.
All of the gurus of ET are now gone and the only ones left are those who know what will happen next. I beg of you to listen although I know most wont.
Good luck to all and look at my chart...
you just got destroyed
Agreed. It seems we have a similar view of the present situation. To be sure, the market can be, and is, being held up with a weak dollar. I don't share the view of some on these forums, however, that the fed can bail us out of any situation with still another rate cut. Eventually someone will shout: "Look, the Emperor has no clothes!", and that will spoil the party.
Quote from Topsurfi:
Hi Piezoe,
I don't exclude anything. That makes me different from Jackstone.
I think you always need a plan B if the market tells you that you are wrong. As someone said - Hubris kills...
The current situation is difficult. I am neutral right now (was long both lows in January and March) and my best guess is that we will be range bound for a while. The reason why I am not so bullish like I was some time ago is that the sentiment is already quite optimistic right now.
I would not worry to much about food and energy prices because I think we might see them fall hard during the rest of the year.
Recession is already priced in so we only have to see if it might get uglier than most expect. As you might know the prices always make a low when the word "recession" reaches a maximum in public newspapers.
And we might see a dollar devaluation based rally in stocks. Have you ever looked at the S&P in Euro terms ?
People who use these long term charts like Jackstone should try to get inflation corrected charts (real inflation, not the inflation the US-government is faking). We should never forget that we measure the US-indixes in US-Dollar which is a dynamic measure and not static.
Trading the Cycle patterns is tricky. There are many many mini cycle changes that you don't worry about and start threads about... Concentrate on the MAJOR turns for the market and let the oversold undersold stuff work it's way out as we have rotation currently in the market-- it would be a big mistake not to be invested. I always post the major turns of Cycle theory so keep an eye out. ~ stoney
I dont believe Im wrong on this call. Remember what month this is...April and the next one is May....just how many Mays have been bullish in the last 100 years?
Right now the indexes are struggling to make it through the resistance, but I dont believe it will make it through....why you might ask? Just walk outside and look at whats going on around you. The fundamentals are simply horrible.
This has been nothing more then a consolidation and then it will break to much lower levels over the summer. The odds are in favor of selling what you have right now. When May hits, who knows what will happen next...if your a gambler and believe in going with the odds, then the odds are in my favor...
Right now the indexes are struggling to make it through the resistance, but I dont believe it will make it through....why you might ask? Just walk outside and look at whats going on around you. The fundamentals are simply horrible.
This has been nothing more then a consolidation and then it will break to much lower levels over the summer. The odds are in favor of selling what you have right now. When May hits, who knows what will happen next...if your a gambler and believe in going with the odds, then the odds are in my favor...
And this is how you trade the market yes? You take a walk around the block, get your anecdotal impression of 'how things are' and place your bets. LMAOQuote from jackstone54:
why you might ask? Just walk outside and look at whats going on around you. The fundamentals are simply horrible.
Quote from jackstone54:
Remember what month this is...April and the next one is May....just how many Mays have been bullish in the last 100 years?
[/B]
If you use seasonals in your arguments you should at least know them.
May has averaged a gain of 0.6% since 1900.
What you suffer from is what experts call cognitive dissonance. Its something we find a lot among stock traders. Unfortunately their live-time in stock market is very short.
Something I found:
"In simple terms, it can be the filtering of information that conflicts with what one already believes, in an effort to ignore that information and reinforce one's beliefs. In detailed terms, it is the perception of incompatibility between two cognitions, where "cognition" is defined as any element of knowledge, including attitude, emotion, belief, or behavior. The theory of cognitive dissonance states that contradicting cognitions serve as a driving force that compels the mind to acquire or invent new thoughts or beliefs, or to modify existing beliefs, so as to reduce the amount of dissonance (conflict) between cognitions. Experiments have attempted to quantify this hypothetical drive. Some of these have examined how beliefs often change to match behavior when beliefs and behavior are in conflict."
hope I could help you,
sincerely...