Warning: The Next Wave Down Starts Now

Quote from jackstone54:



We wont get an apology episode from Holygrail once he is proven wrong by the swings of the market, but a sudden disappearing act from this thread.
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See this absolutely proves you have no understanding of what I am saying.

The fact that we are still in a bull trend is not a prediction. It is a statement of fact. If the trend gets broken I will be bearish. Why would I need to apologize for pointing out a fact?
 
Quote from jackstone54:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1881997

Just look at the chart. You know price isnt going to suddenly turn around and go back up from here.

The next stop is the low 1200s and then a little rally and then down to the target area of 1150.

It wont be an apocalypse, just mass unemployment, high inflation and the other little nice things that characterized the 1970s. Maybe it might be like the 1930s. The roaring 90s are over and now we are stuck in this huge churn.

Here is a good example of why you should worry. The Nikkei hit near 40000 in 1990 and has since never returned, never came close, to that old high and remains stuck in this endless churn with the propensity to go lower on a dime.

Right now Im looking at the Globex and shaking my head. What if there was some type of disaster then this thing would really get red. If the Globex is this negative right now, what happens when really bad news comes out. I dont want to imagine.
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I'm bearish too, and you may be right about direction, but your reasoning behind it is dead wrong. this is like stock_trad3r and hedgefundwannabe2 but bearish
 
Hey guys, it doesnt matter, I was right about the market and you were clearly wrong. Your nice fancy charts didnt do anything for you. Dont you think its about time to get out of the library?
 
Quote from jackstone54:

Hey guys, it doesnt matter, I was right about the market and you were clearly wrong. Your nice fancy charts didnt do anything for you. Dont you think its about time to get out of the library?
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You still don't get it.

It's not a prediction. I can't be wrong!!!!
 
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Im looking at the ES now and the strength is impressive, however, the price isnt that strong. Not getting over the 20 day.

This will be another dead cat bounce.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

See this absolutely proves you have no understanding of what I am saying.

The fact that we are still in a bull trend is not a prediction. It is a statement of fact. If the trend gets broken I will be bearish. Why would I need to apologize for pointing out a fact?
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Well, if you define "bull trend" as intact despite a 20% correction, then yes we are still in a bull trend. That doesn't alter the fact that over the last 6-7 months there has been far more profit on the short side than the long side. Staying long from S&P 1575 has been a terrible position. Being short from that same level has been an excellent trade.

One question I would ask - at what point does the "bull trend", by your definition, become broken? S&P 1200? 1100? 1000? Or do we have to go all the way back to the 2002 lows around 770? At what point would you be proven wrong?
 
Quote from Cutten:

Well, if you define "bull trend" as intact despite a 20% correction, then yes we are still in a bull trend. That doesn't alter the fact that over the last 6-7 months there has been far more profit on the short side than the long side. Staying long from S&P 1575 has been a terrible position. Being short from that same level has been an excellent trade.

One question I would ask - at what point does the "bull trend", by your definition, become broken? S&P 1200? 1100? 1000? Or do we have to go all the way back to the 2002 lows around 770? At what point would you be proven wrong?
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I didn't make the rules for P&F trends. Yes, if you have an extremely strong bull market it is possible to have greater than a 20% correction and still be in a bull market. All trends are 45 degrees with p&f charting. X's represent upward movement after a reversal. 0's represent downward movement after a reversal. Since there can never be two x columns in a row, or two 0 columns in a row the breaking of trend is on a sliding scale.

Right now we are in an x column. To break trend the next 0 column would have to make it to 128(SPY). If the next 0 column fails to do this then it moves up the line by 4 points in this case and 132 becomes the next trend breaker. This is displayed in the chart below.

Yes, there was more money on the downside, and no I DID NOT STAY LONG THIS ENTIRE TIME. You have trends within trends to watch that will tell you when to get out, as well as the bullish percent indicator. It's a two step process.

All that said, I am not saying anything other than the trend exists, and it is still intact. Everyone has there own trading styles, and this is my methodology. From a trending standpoint I believe it is the best methodology, but to each his own.
 

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Since I threw the last chart in, I will also include the bullish % indicator which clearly shows we have be rising since January. When I see an x column in the bullish %, and a bull trend still exiisting, I will be looking for longs.
 

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Holygrail's logic is so confusing. We have to make it to 128 then it becomes a bear market at which point we should start shorting and you should go ahead and get out of your long positions.

He comes up with this Hershey-esque post to make him look real smart while everyone who is long is losing their shirt...

Quote from HolyGrail:

I didn't make the rules for P&F trends. Yes, if you have an extremely strong bull market it is possible to have greater than a 20% correction and still be in a bull market. All trends are 45 degrees with p&f charting. X's represent upward movement after a reversal. 0's represent downward movement after a reversal. Since there can never be two x columns in a row, or two 0 columns in a row the breaking of trend is on a sliding scale.

Right now we are in an x column. To break trend the next 0 column would have to make it to 128(SPY). If the next 0 column fails to do this then it moves up the line by 4 points in this case and 132 becomes the next trend breaker. This is displayed in the chart below.

Yes, there was more money on the downside, and no I DID NOT STAY LONG THIS ENTIRE TIME. You have trends within trends to watch that will tell you when to get out, as well as the bullish percent indicator. It's a two step process.

All that said, I am not saying anything other than the trend exists, and it is still intact. Everyone has there own trading styles, and this is my methodology. From a trending standpoint I believe it is the best methodology, but to each his own.
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