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Warning: The Next Wave Down Starts Now
- Thread starter jackstone54
- Start date
hubris killsQuote from jackstone54:
Do I have your attention yet fellow traders? I apologize for the flashy headline but I have to get your attention or else you will lose money. Ok, well I doubled down on my shorts and puts today for all of my positions. I want to make it known to anyone who is long in almost any stock, sector or index that the next wave down is about to begin.
There is the theory of the Elliott Wave which states bear markets erupt in three phases. There is an initial leg down followed by a short leg up and then another leg down. This is a complex theory that can easily be misinterpreted and I am by far no expert in it. However, the moral of the story is that the market usually comes in threes. We have experienced the first wave down followed by a short wave up and now we will experience another wave down which will feel real bad to some.
I say this now to everyone here plain and simple. The market is going much much lower. Let me clarify a target for you now. 11000 on the Wilshire 5000 which is 25% lower then today's close. This target is to be reached by the conclusion of this year. Pure and simple.
The recovery will be nice if you still have money to invest and trade. However, by that time many of you will be whipsawed out. Im not certain how many trading blogs I have seen disappear or how many posters have left ET. There have certainly been many whipsawed out already in the current downtrend.
Listen to me, honestly, there are very few sectors, indexes, stocks, futures, etc. that will behave the way you want it during a bear. Only logical thinking contrarian investors like myself who go in on long dated puts will be able to trade through this market successfully.
My wise words of wisdom for those who want to listen and understand are this...get the f*ck out. You heard me. Tommorrow, I want you to close all of your long positions and go to cash. Wait patiently until the end of the year and then jump in on the recovery.
All of the gurus of ET are now gone and the only ones left are those who know what will happen next. I beg of you to listen although I know most wont.
Good luck to all and look at my chart...
read this post to the NQ today...uhhh...not so fast...market continues to rally...Oil will bubble burst, Euro will bubble burst...earnings will show worst is behind...come on...lets get real!...Market will continue to climp...hit bottom about 5-10 days ago...
Your looking at the same charts that I have. Are you going to tell me that the price isnt bouncing through the fib retracements and just poised for a breakdown at this point? You can clearly see where it had 3 chances to go through that fib line and it didnt.
All the rate lowering and capital infusions have not helped us too much. The rates can only be lowered so much and the capital infusions can't continue forever.
The price is going to go where its going to go and there is nothing we can do to stop it. The price for the SPX is set at 1150. Thats where it will go like it or not.
All the rate lowering and capital infusions have not helped us too much. The rates can only be lowered so much and the capital infusions can't continue forever.
The price is going to go where its going to go and there is nothing we can do to stop it. The price for the SPX is set at 1150. Thats where it will go like it or not.
The price I am looking at for the SPX is still at 1364 and that's what it is like it or not. NOTHING about it's further direction is 'set in stone' (although IMO we're still in a longer term downtrend until we close over 1420 in the monthly). Everything is a matter of probabilities. Nothing is impossible. SPX 1100 is just as likely or unlikely in my book as SPX 1500 by mid 2008.Quote from jackstone54:
The price is going to go where its going to go and there is nothing we can do to stop it. The price for the SPX is set at 1150. Thats where it will go like it or not.
Sure, everyone can see the 3 wave move up from the March lows. But do you really think a 3 week rally is long enough in time and price to undo 5 months of bearish sentiment? Extremely unlikely.
Quote from jackstone54:
Your looking at the same charts that I have. Are you going to tell me that the price isnt bouncing through the fib retracements and just poised for a breakdown at this point? You can clearly see where it had 3 chances to go through that fib line and it didnt.
All the rate lowering and capital infusions have not helped us too much. The rates can only be lowered so much and the capital infusions can't continue forever.
The price is going to go where its going to go and there is nothing we can do to stop it. The price for the SPX is set at 1150. Thats where it will go like it or not.
Quote from Maverickz:
Oh no the sky is falling, the sky is falling!
When I read this all I can picture is an old man walking the streets of New York wearing a washboard sign that says: "Armageddon is upon us!" on the front and "Repent for the end is near!" on the back.
I trade options so I really don't care where the market goes, or if it goes anywhere at all. I can make money no matter what it does. Those who trade stocks can short if they want. Either way this is not the doom and gloom you are looking for...move along.
That's right...people who trade options can't lose...
move along yerself..