(WARNING) I'm revealing a dirty secret about trading..

Quote from total_keops:

Why dont you post the results of you backtest?
More...

I looked at his posts... the dirty little secret is that he doesn't know what the hell he is talking about and there are no metrics. Just discovered the 'start a thread button' in a drunken stupor.
 
Quote from bone:

I looked at his posts... the dirty little secret is that he doesn't know what the hell he is talking about and there are no metrics. Just discovered the 'start a thread button' in a drunken stupor.
More...

+10
 
In my report, "Even More Edges", I share the expectancy formula

Win Amount * Win Frequency - Loss Amount * Loss Frequency = 0

This formula is based on the rather sound assumption that the expectancy is zero for any given (random) trading method. The fact that some systems have higher win ratios or lower win ratios is for the most part inconsequential. I will favor high win ratios because it reduces trading costs and increases stability of equity curve. This formula is not an edge but I show how if one has an edge they can use this formula to choose any win ratio they desire.

Trend following systems, if they win more then zero, are benefiting from the market inability to price rare events. One might also say they benefit from some sort of perceptual lag among market participants.

As Bone said though, you do not present anything worthwhile to support your contentions.

Think about this: let's say you trade 2 contracts and you decide to take first off at 75% probability and the second at a 25% probability target. There will be some mid point target between the two that will have the same net probability of the combined.

I'm afraid trading is not about math for some of us. I'm one of the best at calling direction and I'm above average in all areas except math.

Quote from focusonmoney:

I shouldn't be telling you this but oh well let's go ahead... What I'm about to tell you isn't new, but its a good reminder for all you doubters... I have study the markets for years, and I will tell you that it's not easy to figure it out... BUT... If you have a system that works 50 percent of the time then you can make money...

You see, trading is about MATH... Not only trading though, business is about math too (and emotions)... Now in order to make a system that works 50% of the time profitable, you will have to let the system capture trends (or big moves)... Your job is to pick or come up with a system that works at least 50% of the time.. Once you do that then you will trade multiple contracts...

Now, I'm about to say something very important so listen up... You will have to come up with 2 or 3 or 4 etc profit targets... For example, if you are trading 2 contracts then you can take profits when it reach 2 points, and let the second contract ride... When you do your backtesting, then you will know exactly where to take profits on each contract...

This right here will keep you in the game.. You don't have to believe anything I said or take me serious, but you should if you want to make money..
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I once did a test on trading, throw a bunch of trade entries, I called "profit-lets", randomly buy or sell with equal stop and profit targets. You guess what you will have >50% winning ratios guaranteed if you add to reversion to the means to it, otherwise close to 50% R:R.
 
Quote from bone:

If trading was all about math, then LTCM and every other quant firm that has blown up would still be in business.

And every mathematician and engineer would be a trader. And that is clearly not the case. Your opinion lacks merit and facts.
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Before anyone make a comment please read my post correctly. I never said u have to be a mathematician or engineer... and I never said it's ALL about math.. I said trading is about math.. Now about LTCM, I don't how they blew up and neither do you unless you help them... You don't have to believe my post, its cool... no skin off my back..
 
Focus, you just revealed a dirty little secret about posting on ET.

(WARNING)

Somebody please start a website where you have to provide a trading statement in order to post.
 
Quote from focusonmoney:

I shouldn't be telling you this but oh well let's go ahead... What I'm about to tell you isn't new, but its a good reminder for all you doubters... I have study the markets for years, and I will tell you that it's not easy to figure it out... BUT... If you have a system that works 50 percent of the time then you can make money...

You see, trading is about MATH... Not only trading though, business is about math too (and emotions)... Now in order to make a system that works 50% of the time profitable, you will have to let the system capture trends (or big moves)... Your job is to pick or come up with a system that works at least 50% of the time.. Once you do that then you will trade multiple contracts...

Now, I'm about to say something very important so listen up... You will have to come up with 2 or 3 or 4 etc profit targets... For example, if you are trading 2 contracts then you can take profits when it reach 2 points, and let the second contract ride... When you do your backtesting, then you will know exactly where to take profits on each contract...

This right here will keep you in the game.. You don't have to believe anything I said or take me serious, but you should if you want to make money..
More...



YAWN
 
Quote from bone:

I looked at his posts... the dirty little secret is that he doesn't know what the hell he is talking about and there are no metrics. Just discovered the 'start a thread button' in a drunken stupor.
More...

It's official, Et has a bunch of non traders... BONE, it's very clear you don't day trade because you would of understood my post when you first read it.. You always talking about my client this my client that.. What kind of clients do you have? I hope not traders....

Oh boy this forum is too funny... I see why people are unsuccessful.. They never want to listen and always have something negative to say.. Just test out the strategy I gave you and you will see it works... The problem is you want me to give you a complete system to trade... Why would I do that?
 
Quote from focusonmoney:

I shouldn't be telling you this but oh well let's go ahead... What I'm about to tell you isn't new, but its a good reminder for all you doubters... I have study the markets for years, and I will tell you that it's not easy to figure it out... BUT... If you have a system that works 50 percent of the time then you can make money...

You see, trading is about MATH... Not only trading though, business is about math too (and emotions)... Now in order to make a system that works 50% of the time profitable, you will have to let the system capture trends (or big moves)... Your job is to pick or come up with a system that works at least 50% of the time.. Once you do that then you will trade multiple contracts...

Now, I'm about to say something very important so listen up... You will have to come up with 2 or 3 or 4 etc profit targets... For example, if you are trading 2 contracts then you can take profits when it reach 2 points, and let the second contract ride... When you do your backtesting, then you will know exactly where to take profits on each contract...

This right here will keep you in the game.. You don't have to believe anything I said or take me serious, but you should if you want to make money..
More...

The problem is that you presume you are giving information that is revolutionary. This info can be found in any beginners trading doc. Take some off the table when in profit and let the rest ride. Is this holy grail stuff? Not really. Go back and refine what you think is important and come back when you actually have something to contribute.
 
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