War

1000 · Apr 2, 2006

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

It just struck me like brick - the market began to aggressively price in a war with Iran today.

That is not idle chit chat - from USD weakening, to curve steepening and long end falling, rising oil and gold ... and note Iran came out in defiance of the UN Security Council today.

The only thing we didn't see is equities falling, but that doesn't necessarily negate the thesis if one assumes Fed easing in lead-up to war and that both war and low rates are good for stocks.

Mark this folks - Iran issue looks to increasingly steer the market going forward. That is all I have for now but would be interested opening up discussion on this.

"the market began to aggressively price in a war with Iran today."

What market?

The war has already been won.

If you want to quote USD weakening, curve steepening, long end falling, rising oil and gold..."

Explain how these instruments work and what their underlying significance is, and what systems they affect?

Are you self insured?

1000 · Apr 2, 2006

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

I believe US, UK leadership recognizes the fight with Iran is on - the war is real - just not the conventional type.

You believe correctly. However the conventionality of the type of war that is going on is staring at you.

BlueHorseshoe · Apr 2, 2006

Quote from 1000:

You believe correctly. However the conventionality of the type of war that is going on is staring at you.

Welcome to my ignore list bozo, or should I say welcome AGAIN to my ignore list.

1000 · Apr 2, 2006

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Welcome to my ignore list bozo, or should I say welcome AGAIN to my ignore list.

More self insults, I would like to see how you call your boss "bozo."

If you think I am ever going to give any secrets away, think again, I don't get bought or fold easily like a cheap Italian suit.

BlueHorseshoe · Apr 2, 2006

As I was saying, this is a war with Iran on Iraqi sand ... it's already underway, and neither at a time or a place of our choosing.

Mark my word - this will only be won in Tehran.

Civilians in Iraq Flee Mixed Areas as Killings Rise

By EDWARD WONG and KIRK SEMPLE
Published: April 2, 2006

BAGHDAD, Iraq, April 1 â The war in Iraq has entered a bloodier phase, with the killings of Iraqi civilians rising tremendously in daily sectarian violence while American casualties have steadily declined, spurring tens of thousands of Iraqis to flee from mixed Shiite-Sunni areas ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/02/w...&en=f8918f6ac70104fb&ei=5094&partner=homepage

1000 · Apr 2, 2006

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Welcome to my ignore list bozo, or should I say welcome AGAIN to my ignore list.

It's hard understand why you are so ignorant. In your initialization of this thread, you wondered why equities didn't move. Hard to ignore me isn't it, or may be you might want to rethink your equity strategy.
.

1000 · Apr 2, 2006

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

As I was saying, this is a war with Iran on Iraqi sand ... it's already underway, and neither at a time or a place of our choosing.

Mark my word - this will only be won in Tehran.

I would like to respectfully disagree. This war has already been fought, and the US and the free world have already won. In case you never noticed. May be that is why you have the word "traders" in inverted commas?

It is not going anywhere near Tehran, and any clear thinking individual knows that. We aren't so dumb.

sharkbites · Apr 2, 2006

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

It just struck me like brick - the market began to aggressively price in a war with Iran today.

That is not idle chit chat - from USD weakening, to curve steepening and long end falling, rising oil and gold ... and note Iran came out in defiance of the UN Security Council today.

The only thing we didn't see is equities falling, but that doesn't necessarily negate the thesis if one assumes Fed easing in lead-up to war and that both war and low rates are good for stocks.

Mark this folks - Iran issue looks to increasingly steer the market going forward. That is all I have for now but would be interested opening up discussion on this.

Is the decision to invade Iran, already made like it was with Iraq? Is the market pricing it in?

Bush told Blair determined to invade Iraq without UN resolution or WMD.
Mon Mar 27, 2:13 AM ET
NEW YORK (AFP) - US President George W. Bush made clear to British Prime Minister Tony Blair in January 2003 that he was determined to invade Iraq without a UN resolution and even if UN arms inspectors failed to find weapons of mass destruction in the country, The New York Times reported.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060327/pl_afp/usbritainbushiraqdiplomacy_060327064943

BlueHorseshoe · Apr 2, 2006

Quote from sharkbites:

Is the decision to invade Iran, already made like it was with Iraq? Is the market pricing it in?

Bush told Blair determined to invade Iraq without UN resolution or WMD.
Mon Mar 27, 2:13 AM ET
NEW YORK (AFP) - US President George W. Bush made clear to British Prime Minister Tony Blair in January 2003 that he was determined to invade Iraq

What a complete dumbass ... welcome to my ignore list.

nitro · Apr 2, 2006

I estimate that $10 of the currnet QM price of $65 is anticipating external price shocks, whether it be hurricanes or war with Iran etc.

Equities will move on that indirectly, but only mildly so imo. Above $72 a barrel, a new psychology will take place, but how much it affects equity trends remains to be seen.

nitro