Quote from ssternlight:
The market discovered that 5% in May is a lock and 5.25% in June is likely. Managers are adjusting their positions to match. You also have the speculators who were hoping for an end of cycle rally exiting. I doubt there is much more to it than that.
Your argument doesn't hold because in that instance the curve would have flattened (toward inversion) but it didn't - the 2-10 spread steepened this past week for the first time in a long, long time.