War distortions

I

illiquid

Just wanted opinions on the "war trade" (long oil, long bonds, long gold, short stocks, short dollar) that CNBC keeps squawking about: how many of you think that the "war" is truly the driver behind this trade, and that once the war is resolved quickly or even averted, that these trends will turn?

If we followed the 1991 model, that would seem to be the case, but arent the fundamentals for each of those markets far different now than they were a decade ago?

In other words, could you see us NOT going to war, yet having gold, bonds, and oil continue higher, and stocks and dollar continuing to slide?

Ultimately, I suppose one has to ask the question: are future conditions with or without a war inflationary or deflationary?
 
"Just wanted opinions on the "war trade" (long oil, long bonds, long gold, short stocks, short dollar) that CNBC keeps squawking about"

STOP WATCHING CNBC, IT IS USELESS HORSE SHIT.
 
By no means is this thread prompted by CNBC; "war trade" was just an easy reference. The trends in all those markets mentioned have been on the surface motivated by the imminent or not so imminent resolution of Iraq, yet I am wondering whether the unwinding of this trade, if the resolution comes, would be the mother of all head-fakes?
 
no offense, i just hate CNBC and all they do is cause confusion.

This is not a "WAR DISTORTION" , the war distortion is that this rally didn't happen sooner do to the endless political delays.
 
CNBC ? What's that :D don't even listen to radio or tv !


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We are following the blue consolidation line of weekly chart and made a high ideally as theory said near the dual of Min Projection at 7828.41 (in real 7824.34 so 4 points error): see the blue label at the bottom which correspond to the blue line. Consolidation means we should still be in bearish trend, bearish rallyes are often violent :D

Quote from illiquid:

Just wanted opinions on the "war trade" (long oil, long bonds, long gold, short stocks, short dollar) that CNBC keeps squawking about: how many of you think that the "war" is truly the driver behind this trade, and that once the war is resolved quickly or even averted, that these trends will turn?

If we followed the 1991 model, that would seem to be the case, but arent the fundamentals for each of those markets far different now than they were a decade ago?

In other words, could you see us NOT going to war, yet having gold, bonds, and oil continue higher, and stocks and dollar continuing to slide?

Ultimately, I suppose one has to ask the question: are future conditions with or without a war inflationary or deflationary?
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