Want To Share

Quote from $CostAverageMAN:

How I'm seeing the market right now.....If you have been paying attention you can see that the market is greatly divided right now into two distinct trades...RISK and Perceived less risky trades...Now when I see companies trading up a few hundred percent since March 9th I get very skeptical of what I'm watching...As you all know the best performers off the bottom came from what we would consider the DOGS of 2007-2008 crash...Now I have read places that this may be explained by Quants covering in masses and many other reasons that the average investor may not understand...Now I have taken advantage and capitalized to the best of my ability on this move, but decided to take many chips off the table this morning....I have always tried to take a conservative approach in accumulating this wealth, but knowing the names I have been holding I would have to say that conservative positions is not what I have been holding or for that matter working that well...Drugs Utility treasuries all come to mind as conservative places that may start to perform much better going forward, but I am skeptical that they do well and have made no moves into this area for many reasons, just better than the HOT or momentum names will do if we start to roll hard sometime in the near future.....
Not trying to make a call here and say the market has topped, but I'm quite pleased with what all I have accomplished this year so far and I'm happy to get into preservation of capital mode just as the normal folk feel like they need to be back in fully to this incredible market....If you were in there buying panic then IMHO you got to be selling into this greed or at least moving up your stops......I did open a position in SH (1x short SPY) today to hedge some open longs, and a good chunk of my cash has been and is still in the FXY(Yen), BZF(Real), CYB(Yuan) and the FXC(Canadian dollar)...As my feelings for the dollar have not changed much.....

Well I haven't come on here and updated for some time as most people should have been able to just read the charts and do whats right recently, but I am back to let people know once again today I went on a selling spree....NOT a bad timing if you ask me!!

$COSTAverageMAN
More...

Were there other factors that made you bearish besides many stocks having this huge run up? Your ability to identify and spot emerging trends is extraordinary......
 
Today I went on another heavy selling spree....Now this time it was IMHO time to sell the international ADRs ETFs CEFs....WHY? no reason except to not give back these gains....The List:

ALL POSITIONS BELOW FULLY LIQUIDATED.....VACATION TIME!!!!!!!

BANKS: BCS, RBS, LYG, HBC, IBN, HBD, BBD, UBB, ITUB, BAP, MTU, IRE, AIB, KB, DB

AUTOS: DAI, NSANY, TTM, TM, XIDE

SOLAR: SOLF, LDK, SOL, STP, CSIQ, CSUN, TSL, JASO

PAPER/SUGAR/FOOD: VCP, ARA, CZZ, GMK

STEEL/COAL: TX, YZC, MT, TCK,
MTL, BHP, VALE, RTP, SID, SIM, GGB, SUTR

ENERGY TRUST: AAV, ERF, PWE, PDS, PVX, PGH

OILS: LUKOY, OGZPY, PBR, PTR, CEO, SU, CNQ, NXY, TLM, BQI, ULTR, NOA

TELCO: CHU, CHL, CHA, QXM, GRRF, TSTC, UTSI, ALU

CEMENT/INFASTRUCTURE: CX, ABB

UTILITY: SBS, EBR, ELP, KEP, HNP,

TECH: PHG, SNE, HIT, FUJI, FMCN, BIDU, SINA, SOHU, SNDA, REDF, NTES

PHARMA: RDY, GSK, SNY, SVA, TBV

MEDIA: CETV

SHIPS: EXM, NM

INSURANCE: AEG, AZ, AGO,

DIAMONDS: HWD

LEASING/REIT: AER, MIM, GLS,

CHEMICAL: IOSP

GOLD CEF'S: ASA, CEF

LEVERAGED Etf's----EDC, ERX
IRELAND; IRL
BRAZIL: EWZ
GERMANY: GF
HONG KONG: EWH
RUSSIA: CEE, RSX, TRF
CHINA: CAF, TAO
ASIA: APF, APB

GLOBAL FUNDS AND PREFERRED CLOSED END FUNDS: PGP, GGT, BPP, JTP, JPC, FFC, BQR

$COSTAverageMAN
 
You're just lucky :p

I always love reading what you're up to... it gets filed into the "what other people are doing" part of my trading analysis. You're one of the wise ones! Please keep it up!
 
Completely out of every stock position today in every account....I have slowly been picking up hedges to protect currency and commodity positions...I feel as if the markets are currently in the eye of a hurricane right now as people are coming out of their shelters and looking at this beautiful "green shoots" sky, completely unaware that they are just in the eye of the storm...

It's not going to bother me one bit to miss a 10-20% move one way or the other...We all better pray that all these treasury auctions go smoothly over the next 6 months...I really don't want to be around when/if one of those 30 year auctions go array...

On a side note I'm in my 70's so my risk tolerance currently is biased...

$COSTAverageMAN
 
Cost, glad to see your still posting . I think your right on with your analysis. I hope we get 800 before1000. Another week or two should tell the story. I thought there was no reason to be long stocks over the summer but i was unsure about all that stimulus money.
 
Quote from $CostAverageMAN:

Completely out of every stock position today in every account....I have slowly been picking up hedges to protect currency and commodity positions...I feel as if the markets are currently in the eye of a hurricane right now as people are coming out of their shelters and looking at this beautiful "green shoots" sky, completely unaware that they are just in the eye of the storm...

It's not going to bother me one bit to miss a 10-20% move one way or the other...We all better pray that all these treasury auctions go smoothly over the next 6 months...I really don't want to be around when/if one of those 30 year auctions go array...

On a side note I'm in my 70's so my risk tolerance currently is biased...

$COSTAverageMAN
More...

Well, perhaps the bet then to place are some OTM options on the ZB.

I have remained from 50-85% cash or short term instruments in the last year or so with specific short term trades and options plays. No killings this year, I am afraid, but that is more of a function of reduced position size.

Don't feel too bad though - if you don't lose it in the market, you'll lose it to the taxman.
 
In terms of what would happen if there was difficulty finding buyers for the 30 year, what might happen because of that? What are some things to look for that might point towards that likely happening?

Good to see $Cost posting again.

G
 
For those of you who have followed the journal over time you know every once in a while I like to come back and update my calls I make in this journal(Right and Wrong)....Which if all you spent was 5 minutes with stockcharts.com open and looked at some of them back when they were made look pretty darn impressive I must say....I don't put them there for myself, but for nothing more than to "WANT TO SHARE" what I'm doing....BTW consistency is key in this business and making them public well those calls should have me on CNBC hands down....Wheres my TV show-- lets really actually help people...Just kidding

I highly recommend going and looking at the 5/20, 6/1, 6/10 calls cause it may help explain with where I'm going next with my thoughts...

So we have pretty much seen a massive move out of high risk and into "Perceived less risky positions" as of late(Drugs, Utilities, Treasuries and Staples) have all outperformed during this little hick up....High beta (Momentum) names are really under performing since we started this roll and I'm not going to say it is over till I see it....Maybe today, maybe next week, maybe next year is when your going to want to load back up with Risk but only time/the charts will tell....

I'm leaning/prepared for worse times to come with proper currency and commodity hedges in place....US stocks currently open=0.....It's time for me to just intra day trade the indexes/ETF's and enjoy life again....Even though I did just catch a pretty nice 2 day move over in Hong Kong on some selected names which got CLOSED out a few hours ago....I'll tell you the last 9 months have been overwhelming for this old fart (EX:Reading, Charting, Buy/Sell orders), but I got the theme of the rally right "BUY-BUY-BUY the Panics-Chase-Chase-Chase Momentum, but don't get caught"...

I put together an ultra dumb ed down excel sheet with every position I exited over the last few months with the Average Selling Price and dates....So far the liquidation has saved me a Whooping 11% of the "Anomaly" (portfolio)...I'm tracking it for myself, but If any of you up incoming all star fund managers would like to see what over diversification of MOMENTUM names looks like in an "Anomaly" of a bull market here you go...I will never again in my lifetime see those kind of moves that were made in such a short time frame...Said with confidence...Really makes you wonder?

On a side note Gazprom (OGZPY) and Lukoil (LUKOY) where a steal yesterday

Remember this is just for measuring how much was saved by exiting....$ Amount of portfolio is not on there, so don't bother if that is what peeks your interest

$COSTAverageMAN

P.S: Elite Trader the .XLSX file extensions for excel would bring this journal back to life....Having to change the formats is not allowing any pie charts, conditional formatting, data(stock quote) gathering functions and many more issues
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top