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Just an FYI for $CostAverageMAN as well as anyone else following along, Gary Dorsch, who publishes the Global Money Trends newsletter, apparently agrees.

I just received his latest free newsletter teaser for the paid one, and the following line caught my eye:

"GMT expects traders to dump long-dated Treasury notes, and switch the proceeds
into high-grade corporate bonds, commodities, and commodity related stocks. "

His is one of only a handful of newsletters I would consider lifetime subscriptions for.
 
Happy New Year Costaverageman,

You should really consider managing outside money. Your skills are much needed at this moment in time, in my honest opinion.

All the best,

Chuck.
 
sold 20% of TBT just now...The position is quite large and 15% move in 3 days was nice....Just getting out of the portion that I bought a little high...Now I got my cost into the low 37's.....Sold 1/2 my DXO and 1/2 DYY....the leverage was nice, cause I was right, but leverage works both ways and this move was more than I expected...

Can't really reveal anything else...Hope everyone had a good day...

$COSTAverageMAN
 
Quote from $CostAverageMAN:

sold 20% of TBT just now...The position is quite large and 15% move in 3 days was nice....Just getting out of the portion that I bought a little high...Now I got my cost into the low 37's.....Sold 1/2 my DXO and 1/2 DYY....the leverage was nice, cause I was right, but leverage works both ways and this move was more than I expected...

Can't really reveal anything else...Hope everyone had a good day...

$COSTAverageMAN
More...

$CostAverageMAN,

I've not paid much attention to the bond ETF's as I focus on bond futures. Your post gave me the kick I needed to look a little closer at them and I put a portion of my 401K in TBT as well. The bulk of my 401K is in POT and it has done phenomenally well for me, both all of last year as well as this most recent run up from the lows of last year.
 
Quote from $CostAverageMAN:

Net for the 2008 was 58.31% for the year....Quite respectable for the level of capital that was on the sidelines throughout the year.....Quite a few home run type swings this year....Off the top of my head
1. Yen trades
2. Early 2008 long energy
3. Mid 2008 sold all energy/fert/ag/miners
4. Flight to treasuries
5. Bank and Airline day/swing trades (DAL, MS, GS, JPM, SNV, WB, AMR, ALK, UAUA, CAL)

$5X,XXX,XXX.XX If anyone was wondering...

Happy New Year

$COSTAverageMAN
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Hey $Cost, just wondering, is that "$5X,XXX,XXX.XX" term your account size at the end of the year or your returns for the year? Either way it's monstrous, but I just wanted to clarify.
 
How I'm seeing the market right now.....If you have been paying attention you can see that the market is greatly divided right now into two distinct trades...RISK and Perceived less risky trades...Now when I see companies trading up a few hundred percent since March 9th I get very skeptical of what I'm watching...As you all know the best performers off the bottom came from what we would consider the DOGS of 2007-2008 crash...Now I have read places that this may be explained by Quants covering in masses and many other reasons that the average investor may not understand...Now I have taken advantage and capitalized to the best of my ability on this move, but decided to take many chips off the table this morning....I have always tried to take a conservative approach in accumulating this wealth, but knowing the names I have been holding I would have to say that conservative positions is not what I have been holding or for that matter working that well...Drugs Utility treasuries all come to mind as conservative places that may start to perform much better going forward, but I am skeptical that they do well and have made no moves into this area for many reasons, just better than the HOT or momentum names will do if we start to roll hard sometime in the near future.....
Not trying to make a call here and say the market has topped, but I'm quite pleased with what all I have accomplished this year so far and I'm happy to get into preservation of capital mode just as the normal folk feel like they need to be back in fully to this incredible market....If you were in there buying panic then IMHO you got to be selling into this greed or at least moving up your stops......I did open a position in SH (1x short SPY) today to hedge some open longs, and a good chunk of my cash has been and is still in the FXY(Yen), BZF(Real), CYB(Yuan) and the FXC(Canadian dollar)...As my feelings for the dollar have not changed much.....

Well I haven't come on here and updated for some time as most people should have been able to just read the charts and do whats right recently, but I am back to let people know once again today I went on a selling spree....NOT a bad timing if you ask me!!

$COSTAverageMAN
 
Hey $CAM,

Good to see ya back, with your amazing pnl :) .

I think market has 10% upside, as well as 10% downside risk, to year end. We are in the middle of the range, not bad to trade sideway market at this level. I am not so bearish considering historically, a rebounce of 50-70% from desperate bottom is not mission impossible.

You are still the best and wish you well!
 
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