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My 20 largest Short position are CCRT, MCO, CORS, MHO, MTH, SPF, BLG, NDE, NFI, NEW, LEND, FED, FMT, AHM, BKUNA, IBCP, LAB, RATE, HKF, IVC (Mostly lenders of credit and homebuilders with some banks)...Pretty much the same thing everyone is shorting if they could get a fill ...HKF getting removed from the S&P 600 and IVC Issued major refinancing with senior notes....LAB will be holding the bag of both bad tuesdays and the computers are taking over the floor.


Well it was March 14th 2007 when I posted the list of my 20 largest short positions at the time.....(It was my Birthday present to ET)

Bankrupt Names included....IMB (Formally NDE), NEW, NFI, LEND, FMT, AHM, HKF (7 out of 20 went Chapter 13/7.......not that shabby of a call back when "Goldilocks" was still humming along......

BKUNA is down 97% from this post...
BLG is down 90% from this post....
FED is down 90% from this post....
IBCP is down 85% from this post...
SPF is down 85% from this post....
CCRT is down 78% from this post....
CORS is down 75% from this post....
MTH is down 58% from this post....
MHO is down 52% from this post....
MCO is down 45% from this post....
RATE is down 28% from this post....
LAB is down 12% from this post.....
IVC is up 14% from this post...

BTW.....WTF was that reuters mistake today....I still closed very much in the green today, but for a few moments there I thought my portfolio was up sh!ts creek.....Good weekend to you all and get some rest out there....We got a big earnings week ahead of us....


$COSTAverageMAN
 

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I might just swing the indexes around with this cash until things shape up....Some of the names in the $BKX offered some nice moves today down here.....(always looking to catch a knife or two)...Heck even the Airlines can be traded properly if oil keeps dropping!!!

This was a quote from 6/19/2008

I can't think of a better day in my lifetime to implement this plan than today off the open....WFC told you what everyone wanted to hear.....A reason to buy!!!!....SEC scarring the shorts....oil dropped like a rock the yesterday and airlines barely moved.....

It's not like both these sectors gapped through the roof, but they did offer a great opportunity to get in and enjoy the ride off the open.....

BTW....No position I bought today is still open.....Which means I have no real faith in this market either up or down at this point.....Still holding 50% of the portfolio in different currency ETFs.....And seriously looking into breaking up these IRA accounts into many different brokerage firms (What a nightmare for trading).....SIPC insurance of only 100K Cash and 400K to 500K equity (500K total)...Doesn't instill the most confidence with me only being with UBS in my non-cash accounts(TAX- Deffer ed)....I may consider moving th currency hedges back into my FX account (Allowing the Use of Margin),---If the market looks to be picking up as I will want to deploy that capital into other equity positions... I just hated the tax I got hit with last time I was trading that FX account, but I will want that ETF currency capital if the market turns while keeping my currency hedge in place......

To the commodity plays.....Reduced size here....It's been fun, but we all knew they were getting ready to get wrecked......They always had tight 3% stops on at least 30% of the position...Oh well gave some back here, but I made up for it....

Inverse ETF's.....Mostly Stopped out today and Sold a little yesterday.....

Portfolio......As of close today
50% Currency ETF'S.....
8% Commodities (Mostly the diversified ETFS in this sector)
3% Inverse ETFS....Bought Back some SKF down 22% today at the close...So I will be watching the XLF stocks to buy if the move continues tomorrow....To hedge
35% US CASH
2% Other

What a nice swing on some of those Airlines.....Best Winner was the DAL trade.....Nice little 2 day move here...

I tried to get a Best Stock picks section going on ET back on Monday for this wek, but no one participated....So neither did I...oh well I didn't have any problem finding any value plays for this move today....

$COSTAverageMAN
 

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Not much to say, but I am loving this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

traded nothing but the banks today......And Nat Gas stocks at the close......Almost too easy...I feel Like I own call options in these things.....

Could be a record day here......

:D :D :D :D

$COSTAverageMAN
 
With this journal one thing I have always done from time to time is to go back and review some of my broad base sector calls....This is more of an opportunity for me to usually "pat myself of my back"....

Back in early to mid June I was dumping anything related to Fertilizer/Coal/Oil stocks.....at that time this represented a very large portion of my portfolio and had been doing incredibly well....I can only imagine the thoughts that most people must of had at these calls. These stocks had been the market leaders and considering oil was at 130+ who would sell now.....

More importantly than why I sold is what did I start to see that triggered these events for me to get out, before the big boys did.....

1st...At the time not one analyst was recommending anything but these names through news letters and on TV...

2nd...Big Investment Banks were starting to upgrade way late

3rd...Some of the oil stocks had begun to sell off on days oil may have been up

4th...less volume was creating more volatile moves and spreads were widening

5th...Just knowing that other people had the kind of gains I had and in that kind of market they would want to lock those up....

Nothing really fundamental about any of this just more going with instinct....Now I did watch some of these names trade higher after I exited, but I never felt like jumping back in for more than a quick trade or two....

The hardest part of being a swing trader is timing the sell....I choose to accept the fact that these positions will most likely go higher before they go lower, but I never want to put myself in a situation where I would be forced to sell to save some gains I had let ride....TODAY was that day....People were throwing in the towel on these names, just to stay net positive on the trade.....

I went nibbling around at the close to start building some of these positions back up......

I posted an excel to roughly show you were I got out in these names and I guess to show you how much I saved by being prudent...

$COSTAverageMAN
 

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I just listened to Cramer and the Najarian brothers pile on my call.....Just Kidding, but it makes me feel better about this swing.....Hey I will take any help that comes my way...

$COSTAverageMAN
 
Well what can you say about this total disregard to valuations in the commodity sectors. As they went up nobody cared they were over priced and now on the way down nobody cares that they are oversold.....My best guess is certain funds must be salvaging whatever clients they have left and looking for a new strategy....

I'm currently holding no positions in the excel sheet, but have to almost sit on my hands to keep from trading them around....

Just looking at some of the sectors today in Vector V.....

Clean energy--(-10.59%)
Coal energy--(-10.13%)
Fertilizers--(-10.06%)
Mining Gold/Silver--(-9.61%)
US Petro. exploration --(-9.47%)
Basic Steel--(-9.35%)
Mining uranium--(-9.33%)
Mining Other--(-8.51%)
Petro Mach./Equip.--(-7.67%)
Farm Machinery--(-6.72%)

The list goes on and on with whole industries down over 5% today....What a cleansing!!!! I just think back to a few months ago when my portfolio was littered with these industries and it felt like the bear market wasn't occurring in my picks....Really sad what has happened to our fallen market leaders...

So I came back to elite trader and once again pat myself on the back as we once again look back at when old $Cost pulled the trigger and got out of his commodity positions....

So here is another update to the excel sheet with the stock position and date this old man got out and posted in his journal to do the same......

And to the recent post in early august:

I went nibbling around at the close to start building some of these positions back up......

When you are wrong you are wrong and take the early losses before they mount up......

I can only think that some type of meaningful bounce will occur soon to keep us in this trading range, because the market indicators I follow have broken through the July 15th lows and its anyones guess as to where the bottom to the next trading range/band will be.....IF WE DON'T BOUNCE

On a side note, Lets all give a big round of applause for Pro Shares, Power Shares and Deutsche Bank which was able to get out these wonderful double short ETF's in enough time for the little IRA people to capitalize on this messed up global economy......SMN, DUG, EEV, SSG, FXP, EFU, DTO, SDK, SKF, SRS, SDP, EWV, DEE, AGA, REW, SFK, QID, DZZ, MZZ, SDS, DXD, TWM.....

I think I may go take some of these unethical winnings and buy a house on the west coast....Always trying to do my part...

$COSTAverageMAN
 

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Quote from $CostAverageMAN:


I think I may go take some of these unethical winnings and buy a house on the west coast....Always trying to do my part...
More...

LOL... FYI you have a permanent spot on my "weekly 'search for posts' of users that know what they're talking about list" :D
 
And seriously looking into breaking up these IRA accounts into many different brokerage firms (What a nightmare for trading).....

So I have been in the process of setting up some other accounts around different financial institutions....And I must say as a new user of Interactive Brokers I am pleased with the platform...So far...

Well it will be ashame when things calm down cause the moves that are being made are the biggest I have ever seen in my trading/investing life.....FINANCIAL CRISIS=VOLATILITY SPIKES=$$$$$

The price action on the (what I am calling) "THE STOCK OR STOCKS OF THE DAY" is like I have never seen (at least on institutionally owned Large Caps)....There was action everywhere as I'm sure you all saw and traded, but I had to post at least one position I opened up today as I was quite proud of the price I got......

You may of guessed it....Good old Morgan Stanley......I'm showing the low of the day at 11.70, but I was there and I can promise you that it didn't last for maybe a nanosecond....Anyways opened up some size at 12.82 and dam proud of it....I'm hoping that buying it at the same price it was in AUGUST of 1996 may pay off in the long run....

Thanks government I appreciate the late night meeting....Maybe one of the only things this government has ever done in the midnight hour that could be helpful.....:D

I posted a chart

$COSTAverageMAN
 

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