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Cost: Your last two market calls were incredible! You called both the selloff starting last month and the bounce a couple of days ago. Excellent work.

I took some profits yesterday as well and feel we need a couple of days to digest these moves. I sense there may be an important turning point (positive) happening in Iraq right now. With the price or gold and silver down hard, I also expect oil prices to follow. If oil prices pull back into the low 60s/mid 50s you will see the Fed finally pause their rate hikes and hawkish stance.

This could produce a major summer/fall rally just in time for mid-term elections. Whatever you think of Bush... he is not dumb.

JMHO
 
Cost: Your last two market calls were incredible! You called both the selloff starting last month and the bounce a couple of days ago. Excellent work.

I took some profits yesterday as well and feel we need a couple of days to digest these moves. I sense there may be an important turning point (positive) happening in Iraq right now. With the price or gold and silver down hard, I also expect oil prices to follow. If oil prices pull back into the low 60s/mid 50s you will see the Fed finally pause their rate hikes and hawkish stance.

This could produce a major summer/fall rally just in time for mid-term elections. Whatever you think of Bush... he is not dumb.

JMHO
 
Thankyou for the very nice comments.....Just throwing out my opinion every once in a while.....

The real question is will history repeat itself?

The only real concern I have is the steepness and quickness of this self off.....I understand the whole liquidity crunch thing, but are we going to get the consolidation down around these levels or are we going to test support much farther down than the 200 day MA....Lets hope we get consolidation and it looks as if we are getting it.....Circle 1 would suggest we may still fall lower and Circle 2 would be a nice consolidation and bounce......If history repeats itself?

Now the real problem comes in!!!!!! AND think hard about this one.....How long does it take to get back up and break through new highs.....My thoughts are this------Long Term----We could be entering a Bear Market, I would suggest that we consolidate show strength get the public back involved, Never really get close to breaking through the May 9th highs---form a classic head and shoulder and enter into a Bear Market......That sounds awful, but Bull markets do come to an end and we have been in one for over 3 years and it's showing signs of breaking down.....Or the reverse is quite plausible as well and we continue with this nice simple pattern of setting new highs......(Highly unlikely in my opinion and long term I believe it's over)

I'm just and old man and have no exact time frame for this, but it seems like a likely scenario....ANY THOUGHTS?

Chart is 3 year Russell 2000 and lines are 30, 100, 200 day MA

$COSTAverageMAN
 

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I think there's a bit of support around 680, but this selloff has been quite steep.

We're at an important pivot point... for either long or short.. these past few days could be a pullback to go short or the start of a recovery. I'm setting my stops to play either side ;)
 

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I imagine a lot of big players (hedge funds) have been badly hurt in the markets in the last month, especially commodity and emerging markets. Margin calls on leveraged accounts accelerated the speed of the decline.

Are many of these players shaken out now? If that is so then I believe we can have a sustainable (and hopefully slow and steady) bounce.

If there is more to come, i.e. more margin calls on idiots that are still 200% net long on RNE, EWZ, GLD etc. then the summer will continue to be this rocky.
 
$Cost,

I think you mentioned in a previous post that you went more or less all in cash. I know that VectorVest has some sort of macro indicator that shows whether or not you should be in the market at all (long, that is). Did this indicator have any influence on your decision to cash out? Looks like your timing was impeccable.

Cheers.
 
$cost....

What pct are you still in cash?

I am at about 55% currently, and about half of that which remains invested is in defensive stuff.

Any thoughts as to when you are going to start re-establishing positions? I am waiting until september/october to plunge back in. May focus on some short term CEF pickup & drops between November - February - that worked really well for me last year (JPS)
 
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