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05-12-06 04:57 PM

I was asked to post my outlook for this market.....CASH....I got my dollars hedged and I even closed out my GLD and SLV positions yesterday........

As you can see, I have sold all my Miners, Transports, Steel, Titanium, Ethanol, Petroleum, Most Chemicals, Gold, Silver, Retail, Building, Machinery and many others....Just going to sit back and wait for a signal to re-enter.....Europe, Russia, S. America, Emerging Mkts. have all been closed out as well....

Like I have previously stated....High multiple stocks with no positive catalyst are no place to be....The Nasdaq just broke through the 90 day Moving Average on high volume yesterday....Not a good sign.....And I have Moved to Cash..

Looking Back this has got to be the most important and correct post I have ever made in this journal.....The Charts of the Russell 2000, S&P 500 and Nasdaq on pages 75 and 76 of this journal were dead on and I hope everyone took a good look and took the appropriate steps to protect yourself.....

The markets have been brutal and I can only say that defense has been working.....

$COSTAverageMAN
 
Thanks for the reminders of past boom-bust cycles. We are experiencing a severe bust in all the markets of the Gulf States (even as oil prices hit all-time highs). The Saudi, UAE and Kuwait markets all "feel" like 1929... although I'm only in my 40s. The newspaper headlines read as if it was 1929-1930 over here.

You have to have a few "years" under your belt before you see how history repeats itself... every generation; or 20 years or so.

Keep up this excellent thread!!!

JFT
From Doha, Qatar
 
Quote from $CostAverageMAN:

05-12-06 04:57 PM

I was asked to post my outlook for this market.....CASH....I got my dollars hedged and I even closed out my GLD and SLV positions yesterday........

As you can see, I have sold all my Miners, Transports, Steel, Titanium, Ethanol, Petroleum, Most Chemicals, Gold, Silver, Retail, Building, Machinery and many others....Just going to sit back and wait for a signal to re-enter.....Europe, Russia, S. America, Emerging Mkts. have all been closed out as well....

Like I have previously stated....High multiple stocks with no positive catalyst are no place to be....The Nasdaq just broke through the 90 day Moving Average on high volume yesterday....Not a good sign.....And I have Moved to Cash..

Looking Back this has got to be the most important and correct post I have ever made in this journal.....The Charts of the Russell 2000, S&P 500 and Nasdaq on pages 75 and 76 of this journal were dead on and I hope everyone took a good look and took the appropriate steps to protect yourself.....

The markets have been brutal and I can only say that defense has been working.....

$COSTAverageMAN
More...

$cost,

Very nice timing on those May close out of your positions. Very impressive!
Do you have an updated spreadsheet? I would love to see your updated YTD performance.
 
RUSSELL 2000 Breaks through 200 day MA of 699.00----Currently 693.48

That took a little less than a month from the 1st day of the sell off.....

My thoughts on this are not very optimistic.....we bounced off the 700 level I think a week ago.....

Red Line-200 day MA
Blue Line-90 day MA
Purple Line-30 day MA

I pulled up a chart going back to 1999 on the Russell 2000.....The circle in the middle is May of 2002 you can see the sell off that followed after it broke through the 200 day MA.....It looks as if it chopped around for about the month of June and then fell again in early July.....Now I understand the market was still in a Bear Market around this time, but I remember that before this "Sell in May and go Away" happened in 2002 it felt like a nine month Bull Market....(((BTW...That is one ryhme everyone should pay attention to...)))

The set up looks a little similiar and I know the Russell 2000 is not the best way to judge the market, but I find myself investing all over small cap stocks....

So what to make of this? If this is the start of a 2 year bear market, I would be very careful buying and would sell into every rally.....If this is just an equity rotation, I would be rotating in high yielding stocks (REIT, Tankers, Utilities, Large Cap Blue Chips, Energy Trust) or Defensive positions (Media, Healthcare, Drugs, Food, Banks, Drug stores, Grocery stores).....Just a list off the top of my head and this is where I have been rotating..... Let me know if you see some good defensive plays looking right....

I can't tell you how today will end, but I see us going into a case 5 scenario "Start of a bear market" Rising Rates, Rising Inflation, Falling stock prices, Falling Earnings......

The earnings part is the truth of it all....Analyst are bringing down estimates .....Is the rumor

$COSTAverageMAN

p.s. coolweb---I will get back to you on your IM....still thinking about it.....hard question
 

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The best part about today is that I am holding the best performing stock on the NYSE........

VOL--- Just a simple Dimensional Fund and AXA earnings play

Not to mention I always play this stock going into earnings.....

It's up 10+%

A POSITIVE NOTE WAS NEEDED

$COSTAverageMAN
 
I just bought more around 15.00

Looking for some type of bounce, but they are tied to Aleris and Alcoa for around 50% of the product they sell....

Scale it in!!!!!!

I started at 18.50, 17.05 and 15.00

It just keeps dropping.....My Avg price is 16.07.....
 
What is your time frame on this stock?

Thanks,

Dean


Quote from $CostAverageMAN:

I just bought more around 15.00

Looking for some type of bounce, but they are tied to Aleris and Alcoa for around 50% of the product they sell....

Scale it in!!!!!!

I started at 18.50, 17.05 and 15.00

It just keeps dropping.....My Avg price is 16.07.....
More...
 
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