Want To Share

Well I'm back home and I got all the tools with me......The trip went quite well......I was thinking I was going to get behind with the market (That means LOOOOSE MONEY), but I managed to pull out some amazing gains over the past 2 weeks (OVER 1MIL).....I guess I paid for the vacation and then some.....Just kidding......

To the market, Oil over 70, Brent closing in on 72, Gasoline at 2.17, Nat Gas @ 7.61, Heating Oil @ 2.02, Gold @620, Silver touching 13.50, Copper closing in on 3.00, 10Yr @5.00%........WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO!!!!!......

Remember you have been preparing for this all year......Just be HAPPY the portfolio is 11.62% in GOLD/SILVER/MINERS.......11.85% Petroleum.......6.46% CASINOS.......4.10% Steel/Titanium......4.92% Transportation(Rail, Trucks, Equip Mfg, 3 Airliners)....4.74% FOOD......4.45% Machinery......3.55% Intl Utility (Not rate sensitive overseas), 3.46% Coal/Alternative Energy.......And very diversified throughout the world..........

56% International
44% Domestic

CHINA EQUITY 9.79%
JAPAN EQUITY 3.72%
CANADA EQUITY 9.55%
INDIA EQUITY 2.06%
BRAZIL EQUITY 5.11%
AUST. EQUITY 3.40%
MEXICO EQUITY 2.23%
ARGENTINA EQUITY 0.64%
GERMANY EQUITY 2.07%
ITALY/GREECE EQUITY 0.74%
EMERGING MKTS 1.84%
NORWAY EQUITY 0.67%
TAIWAN EQUITY 1.66%
ENGLAND/SWISS EQUITY 0.95%
FRANCE EQUITY 0.64%
ISREAL EQUITY 0.18%
RUSSIA/TURKEY EQUITY 1.92%
HONG KONG EQUITY 0.62%
SINGAPORE EQUITY 0.66%
AFRICA EQUITY 0.86%
PERU EQUITY 0.40%
SPAIN EQUITY 0.26%
CHILE/VENEZUELA EQUITY 0.69%
PORTUGAL EQUITY 0.29%
BERMUDA EQUITY 0.66%
Netherlands Equity 0.33%
KOREA EQUITY 1.16%

I Watch the US Indexes fall (Dow closes -0.57%, S&P closes -0.29, Nasdaq 100 closes -1.04%) and just wonder HOW I manage to stay in the green.....Not only that but gain 1.89% (228K)....Now I did do a bit of trading, so I back tested what would of happened if I did nothing at all and let the portfolio run(Still 133K gain).....The ANOMALY is strong....The Portfolio is built....The performance speaks for it's self....I'm amazed!!!!

2006 Portfolio Performance = 71.956%
Todays ADV=214
Todays DEC=85
Todays UNCH=2
A/D Portfolio Line =71.09%

777 Profitable Closed Transactions in 2006 (Net=4.4 MIL)
101 Losing Closed Transactions in 2006

272 Open Winners (710K Unrealized)
29 Open Losers

Jan 03 2006 Portfolio=$7,162,676.97
April 18 2006 Portfolio=$12,316,648.36
2006 Portfolio Gain=$5,153,971.39

I'M VERY HAPPY IF YOU CAN'T TELL!!!!!!

$COSTAverageMAN-------OUTPERFORMING DAILY
 
We're all happy for your progress :) I remember not too long ago you were around 8 MM hehe.

Enjoy the gasoline at 2.17 while you can :/ I just paid 2.77 to fill up yesterday. ugh.

I think I mentioned something about correlation and adjusted diversification a few pages back... and you asked a question regarding how to properly test it in different time frames... I haven't responded b/c I actually do not know (yet). I'm quite a bit newer at this than you are and am still figuring out proper methods and software to use on how to do this... if anyone else has had experience with testing correlation and diversification do share.

WB from your vacation!
 
I WOULD IMAGINE THAT RUNNING A 2 YR CORRELATION/OPTIMIZATION WOULD BE PROPER.....MOSTLY B/C OF THE RECENT CHANGES IN COMMODITY PRICES OVER THE LAST 2 YRS....SINCE I'M VERY overweight IN COMMODITY TYPE SECTORS, I IMAGINE DAILY PRICES FROM 5 YEARS AGO WITH OIL AND OTHER METAL COMPANIES DIDN'T MOVE ANY WHERE CLOSE TO HOW THEY ARE MOVING NOW (VOLATILITY IS MUCH GREATER NOW)..... THIS WOULD GREATLY AFFECT 5 YR DATA BETWEEN LETS SAY ex. ENERGY AND SOFTWARE CORRELATION....

BTW: I HAVE EXCEL SHEET READY AND CAN'T UPLOAD IT.....THE FILE IS NOT OVER THE MAXIMUM SIZE AND IT SAYS E.T. DATA FILES ARE HAVING PROBLEMS....BLA..BLA..BLA......OR something LIKE THAT......ANYONE ELSE HAVE THIS PROBLEM WHEN UPLOADING A BIG FILE?

PS: Gas around me is 2.82.......I meant spot prices on NYMEX......You can always take spot prices and add .60c to .80c to estimate what you will see at the pump depending on where you live...If your lucky and don't live in Alaska or Hawaii or anywhere else you get GOUGED!!!!

$COSTAverageMAN
 
HERE ARE A FEW OF MY SEARCHES I RAN IN PREPERATION FOR TODAY....


Top VST Stocks
Frontier Oil FTO 1.56
Hansen Natural HANS 1.56
Ezcorp A EZPW 1.55
Titanium Metls TIE 1.54
Eagle Material EXP 1.53

Top RT Industries
Steel (Basic) 1.61
Steel (Alloy) 1.56
Metal Prds (Distributors) 1.45
Mining (Gold\Silver) 1.43
Food (Sugar\Flour\Grain) 1.40

Top RT Sectors
Steel 1.59
Mining 1.42
Metal Products 1.33
Machinery 1.16
Diversified Companies 1.16

ALL SEARCH RESULTS ARE IN ORDER BEST TO NOT SO BEST....

CARLEO'S WAY SEARCH

WIRE, ATI, FCX, IIG, FUL, PLLL, BSC, DO, SHOO, GS, STEL, TSAI, PVX

CANDLESTICK---PIERCING PATTERNS--SEARCH

LECO, WSC, ALAB, SMG, SFNC, NEOG, KMR, ABCB, VLI, CYCC, LNCB

CANDLESTICK---HAMMER PATTERNS--SEARCH

USGL, PKD, APPB, BHS, USHS, HAWK, SBIT, LZ, XRIT, RCS, FIS, OLP, ASGR

CANDLESTICK---ENGULFING PATTERNS--SEARCH ON TOP 10 SECTORS

URRE, RKT, DCAI, TRTNS, VLLY, ZION, ABCB, LNCB, SFNC, LZ, KMR, OCFC, FCBP, HAFC, MWE, TIV, VLI, STXS, DADE


CANDLESTICK---GREEN BODIES PATTERNS--SEARCH ON TOP 10 INDUSTRIES BY RELATIVE TIMING

BITS, TRU, DRQ, GRP, HC, HYDL, LSS, LUFK, TESOF, HNR, MPET, TNT, ATW, DO, ESV, RIG, THE, UUNT, REFR, APN, SFP, ESP, FLIR, GBVS


5 DAY PRICE DELTA SEARCH

ONH, HSR, BDCO, MZT, BUF, MPET, MWAV, DTLK, NXG, GRRN, CXN, FUEL, DYXC, MGPI, FPP, IPIX, CYAN, HSTM, RIV, CLEC, OPNT, FSI, ASPV, PLUG, MXC, PTEK, TGB, INTN, ERS, OLAB, ADL, POCI, CGR, REFR, ALT, CHDX, XNN, GEOI, COR, QSC, PEIX, IGTE, EPL, TIVO, IFCJ, CBA, MAXC, PJC, BITS, EGR, HLD, MSS, GRZ, NTN, TGC, TEN, HEC, INPC, IFNY, CECE, DVW

Fastest Rising VST Stocks SEARCH

TGB, ONH, NXG, HOM, GIGM, BITS, BDCO, ARGN, DTLK,.......... (note: ALL AFTER DTLK CAME FROM A RELAXED SEARCH VERSION ON THIS SEARCH).......... HSTM, CIMT, GEMS, SIM, GRN, SFP, CDE, HSR, MPWG, SWB, WEL, AMKR, GMTC, HL, NTO, APAT, CTGI, FRD, GRZ, OMNI, CBIZ, CLG, ICOC, IHR, ININ, PLB, SMDI, TGC, AGT, DSSI, EZM, FUEL, MNG, RICK, LXU, QSC, APN, CHMP, KRY, LCCI, WEX, DVW, INPC, LPSN, POCI, SOFO, VGZ

Murphys Law SEARCH

FTO, TIE, MTW, TS, WIRE, PCU, GG, MVK, MRO, PLCE, ATI, ESV, FCX, HAL, RTI, ACO, JOYG, ATW, IIG, NXY, GIGM, MGPI, EZPW, PLNR, ZEUS, SPN, FUL, NUE, PD, SID, WCC, TTC, GPI, LEH, MDR, PLLL, RIG, PTRY, THE, BSC, WHQ, CDE, GSF, RDC, ASPV, DO, ITG, SHOO, UIC, GYMB, GS, NOK, TDW, AEM, BNI, CP, STLD, VTS, WTZ, GFI, RMBS, STMP, TRN, CCJ, SIL, TEN, WTI, ABX, AA, UBS, WYNN. DTV, FCEL, PAAS

STRICK VOLUME/TIMING SEARCH

MZT, DTLK, HSTM, BDCO, LXU, RADA, CWBC, OTD

EARNINGS YIELD/ VOLUME / STRENGTH SEARCH

AE, EPL, EWST, ATPL, RADA, EZM, IBCA, VFC, ETN, OMNI, TEN, CASS, CAS, FAL, ASPV, WPSC, NSYS, NXG, CAMP, LQU, LXU, DTLK, EZPW, WEL, BDCO, GOL, CHRT, NTG, MODT, ANDE, ACO, TRXI, GDI, IFCJ, KAI, LFC, SSCC, MGPI, FSTR, PEIX


SINCE I NEVER KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO BE MOVING EVERYDAY.....THIS IS HOW I USUALLY START WITH A FEW MORE SEARCHES I LEFT OFF.....BUT I THOUGHT I WOULD POST ALL THIS CONSIDERING THE FUTURES ARE UP CURRENTLY AND THESE SEARCHES USUALLY PRODUCE A FEW REAL GOOD DAILY WINNERS WHEN FUTURES ARE POINTED UP.....

$COSTAverageMAN
 
I AM NAILING THE EARNINGS REPORTS TODAY

FCX, TZOO, JEF, MAN, UNH

BTU (DID VERY WELL BUT IS GETTING SOLD OFF PREMARKET)

I STILL HAVE CSX AND LFC AFTER THE BELL REPORTING......
 
I think your position sizing is good.

Do you follow any methology to load up on longs, or do you just follow a simple rule such as DOW is above 200ma, everytime it comes and retraces and starts touching something, I start loading up on longs

Because I noticed you load up on longs all the time

And Its definately the right thing to do :)
 
Hello All

This week was very profitable for the correct Sectors......

By the time Friday got here the Portfolio was very overwieghted in certain sectors....Mostly low multiple sectors and I tried to get back to an equal split between Large(31.1%), Mid (26.96%), Small Cap(38.63%)

Sectors as they are at Close of Friday

Petroleum 21.12% (Every Industry in Sector with OIH@155 Protective Puts)
Mining 6.75% (Gold/Silver/Ore)
Food 5.5% (Agricultural, Sugar/Flour/Grain, Softdrinks, Alcohol, and Poultry )
Energy 4.5% (Mostly 8 Coal, 2 Ethanol and 1 LNG companies and Alternative Energy---ENER, QTWW, ESLR, STP, )
Leisure Gaming 4.55% (12 Casinos and 3 Slot makers...etc)
Electronic 4.41% (Semi Eqp and Mfg ---only High Multiple Sector)
Transportation 4.3% (Mostly Equipment Mfg, Truck, Rail, No Airliners)
Utility 4.01% (Mostly Foriegn Utilities)
Chemical 4.02% (Basic, Plastic, and Speciality as Oil hedge and valuation)
Machinery 4.01% (Const/Mining, Farm, Industrial)
Steel 3.91% (Mostly Titanium and some Steel Basic)
Closed End Funds 3.57% (Russia, Eastern Europe, China, Taiwan and Turkey)
Building 3.13% (Mostly Cement, heavy Const. and Wood Products)
Mutual Funds 3.03% (Emerging MKTS and CHINA MF)
Bank 2.66% (All Foriegn Brazil, Asia, Aust, and Europe)
Financial 2.46 (Brokers and Management)
Metal Products 2.39% (Alluminum, Distribution and Pipe)
Global Congolmerates 2.34% (EON, ABB, MTW, UTX, HIT, NHY)
Market Baskets 2.12% (Canada, Emerging MKTS, China, Singapore)
Telecomm 2.03% (Mostly Cellular Foriegn, 1 Fiber, 1 Equipment)
Internet 1.93% (YHOO, TZOO, WBMD, TRAD, AMTD)
Insurance 1.2% (LFC, MTG, MLEA)
Drug 1.13% (Ethical=AAA, RDY, BIO TECH=GILD, AVII)
Auto Truck 1.03% (FIA, OSK, JCI, TEN)

Other (Firm Specific) (LESS than 1.00%)

HealthCare .62% (GHCI and KNDL)
AeroSpace and Defense .61% (GD, UIC HSR)
Paper .48% (ARA and VCP both Brazil)
Business Service .33% (IX-- Orix Corp-- Japan)
Computer .12% (AUO Foriegn)
Home Video Products .38% (SNE--Japan)
REIT .36% (NEW)
Pollution Control .22% (CESI)
Retail .36% (SHOO)

The Anomoly is now at 90.10% Return for 2006
This Weeks Net is 1.528 MIL or 12.64% (By Far the Best Week EVER)
(((All Losing Equity Got Sold off this week....No Dollar Costing done....So there is currently 300+ WINNERS, I don't expect this to last, but its currently very pretty looking)))

This Weeks Best stocks Still Holding (All Bought This Week)
TZOO-125.127%
CHCG-84.08%
MLIN-39.4%
GV-36.8%
SWFT-33.0%
SWIR-31.1%
SHOO-31.4%
ZOLT-30.1%
BTU-26.7%
ABP-23.4%
OTD-22.8%
NITE-21.6%
HSR-21.1%
CUP-19%
KNDL-18.3%

This is Fridays Excel Sheet....With all transactions on it, but I will post the other days as well.....This took a little time to complete them all, because of the short term sector rotating I was doing this week and I just got behind on Tuesday and I was wiped out....I really haven't been sleeping much this week, So on Friday all I did was sell my last Airliner (TAM) and buy Protective Puts on the OIH and went back to sleep waking up every hour to make sure I was still in the green....
 
Well Since I can't get excel to upload this is all current holdings


Company Symbol Industry
Altana Grp ADR AAA Drug (Ethical)
Anglo Am. ADR AAUK Mining (Other)
A B B Ltd ABB Diversified Companies
Abraxas Petro ABP Petroleum (U S Explr\Prod)
CompanDeB ADR ABV Food (Bev-Alcoholic)
Acergy SA ACGY Petroleum (Field Services)
Arch Coal ACI Energy (Coal\Other)
American Comm ACLI Transportation (Ship)
Archer Daniels ADM Food (Sugar\Flour\Grain)
Adam Res&Eny AE Petroleum (Refining\Mktg)
Agnico Egl Ltd AEM Mining (Gold\Silver)
Edwards (A.G.) AGE Financial (Brokers)
Amerada Hess AHC Petroleum (Intl Integrted)
Appld Ind Tech AIT Metal Prds (Distributors)
Ameriprise AMP Financial (Brokers)
Ameritrade AMTD Internet (E:Commerce)
Anderson's Inc ANDE Food (Agricultural)
Aust. NZ Bank ANZ Bank (Foreign)
Apache Corp APA Petroleum (U S Explr\Prod)
Amphenol CorpA APH Electrical (Connectors)
Aracruz ADR ARA Paper
Amer Railcar ARII Transportation (Equip Mfg)
Aleris Int'l ARS Metal Prds (Pipe\Fab\Misc)
Ameristar Cas ASCA Leisure (Gaming)
Amer StandCos ASD Building (A\C Heating Pds)
Aspen Expl Co ASPN Petroleum (U S Explr\Prod)
Advancd SemiADR ASX Electronic (Semicndtr Mfg)
Advantest ADR ATE Electronic (Semicndtr Eqp)
Allegheny Tech ATI Steel (Alloy)
Atwood Oceanic ATW Petroleum (Drilling)
AngloGold ADS AU Mining (Gold\Silver)
A U OptrncsADR AUO Computer (Peripheral Eqp)
A V I BioPharm AVII Drug (Biomedical\Genetic)
Amvescap ADR AVZ Financial (Management)
A X T Inc AXTI Electronic (Semicndtr Eqp)
Aurizon Mines AZK Mining (Gold\Silver)
Basic Energy BAS Petroleum (Field Services)
Banco BradscADR BBD Bank (Foreign)
Boston CommGrp BCGI Telecomm (Cellular)
BASF AG ADR BF Chemical (Basic)
Bunge Ltd BG Food (Agricultural)
Bema Gold BGO Mining (Gold\Silver)
Baker Hughes BHI Petroleum (Mach\Equipment)
BHP Billiton BHP Mining (Other)
Banco Macro ADS BMA Bank (Foreign)
Blackrock Inc BLK Financial (Management)
B P p.l.c. ADR BP Petroleum (Intl Integrted)
Brazil Tele SA BRP Utility (Telephone)
Peabody Energy BTU Energy (Coal\Other)
B T U Int'l BTUI Electronic (Semicndtr Eqp)
Bucyrus Int'l BUCY Machinery (Const\Mining)
Buenaventura BVN Mining (Gold\Silver)
Boyd Gaming BYD Leisure (Gaming)
Bally Tech Inc BYI Leisure (Gaming)
Canon Inc ADR CAJ Office (Equip\Automation)
Castle (AM) CAS Metal Prds (Distributors)
Caterpillar CAT Machinery (Const\Mining)
Coca ColaHBCADR CCH Food (Bev-Soft Drink)
Cameco Corp CCJ Mining (Other)
Celanese Corp CE Chemical (Basic)
Central Euro&Rs CEE Market (MutFndsClsdFrgn)
Central FundA CEF Market (MutFndsClsdDom)
Century Alumn CENX Metal Prds (Pipe\Fab\Misc)
C N O O C ADR CEO Petroleum (Intl Specialty)
Catalytica Egy CESI Pollution Control (Equip)
China 3C CHCG Electronic (Misc Products)
Churchill Downs CHDN Leisure (Gaming)
Chesapeake Eny CHK Petroleum (U S Explr\Prod)
China Mb(HK)ADR CHL Telecomm (Cellular)
Chartered Semi CHRT Electronic (Semicndtr Mfg)
CompanhiaEgyADR CIG Utility (Electric)
China Netcom CN Telecomm (Services)
C N H Global CNH Machinery (Farm)
CONSOL Energy CNX Energy (Coal\Other)
ConocoPhillips COP Petroleum (Intl Integrted)
CPFL Energia SA CPL Utility (Electric)
Corn ProdsIntl CPO Food (Sugar\Flour\Grain)
Cresud Inc ADR CRESY Food (Agricultural)
CarpenterTech CRS Steel (Alloy)
Ctrip.com ADR CTRP Leisure (Services)
Peru Copper Inc CUP Mining (Other)
Chevron Corp CVX Petroleum (Intl Integrted)
Diamond Offshr DO Petroleum (Drilling)
Dow Chemical DOW Chemical (Basic)
Dril Quip DRQ Petroleum (Mach\Equipment)
Devon Energy DVN Petroleum (U S Explr\Prod)
D X P Entrprses DXPE Machinery (Industrial)
E N I Spa ADS E Petroleum (Intl Integrted)
E D A P T ADR EDAP Healthcare (Instruments)
European EqFd EEA Market (MutFndsClsdFrgn)
iShr MSEmrgMKT EEM Market (Baskets)
ENDESA ADS ELE Utility (Electric)
Energy ConvDev ENER Energy (Coal\Other)
Enersis SA ADS ENI Utility (Electric)
EOG Resources EOG Petroleum (U S Explr\Prod)
E.ON AG ADR EON Diversified Companies
Energy PtnrLtd EPL Petroleum (U S Explr\Prod)
Empire Resrces ERS Metal Prds (Distributors)
EvergreenSolar ESLR Energy (Coal\Other)
Ensco Int'l ESV Petroleum (Drilling)
iShr MSCan EWC Market (Baskets)
iShr MSSng EWS Market (Baskets)
FoundationCoal FCL Energy (Coal\Other)
Fording CdnTst FDG Energy (Coal\Other)
Fiat S P A ADS FIA Auto & Truck (Mfg)
Nat'l Beverage FIZ Food (Bev-Soft Drink)
Finisar Corp FNSR Telecomm (FiberOptics)
First Rep Bank FRC Bank (West\Swst)
Friedman Inds FRD Metal Prds (Pipe\Fab\Misc)
Florida Rock FRK Building (Cement Etc.)
Frontier Oil FTO Petroleum (Refining\Mktg)
StreicherMblFlg FUEL Petroleum (Refining\Mktg)
Fuller (HB) FUL Building (Painting Prds)
Foster Wheeler FWLT Machinery (Industrial)
iShrFTSE/China FXI Market (Baskets)
Greenbriar Corp GBX Transportation (Equip Mfg)
Greater China GCH Market (MutFndsClsdFrgn)
Gen'l Dynamcs GD Aerospace & Defense (Mfrs)
Gardner Denver GDI Machinery (Industrial)
Gold FieldsADR GFI Mining (Gold\Silver)
Goldcorp Inc GG Mining (Gold\Silver)
Gerdau SA ADR GGB Steel (Basic)
Genesis Hlthcr GHCI Healthcare (Nursing Homes)
Giant Inds GI Petroleum (Refining\Mktg)
Gilead Science GILD Drug (Biomedical\Genetic)
Corning Inc GLW Electronic (Misc Products)
Grace W.R. GRA Chemical (Specialty)
U S Global Inv GROW Financial (Management)
Grant Prideco GRP Petroleum (Mach\Equipment)
Gold Reserve GRZ Mining (Gold\Silver)
GrafTech Int'l GTI Steel (Alloy)
Goldfield Corp GV Building (Heavy Constr)
Genesee & Wyomg GWR Transportation (Rail)
Halliburton HAL Petroleum (Field Services)
Hanson PLC ADR HAN Building (Cement Etc.)
Helix Energy HELX Petroleum (Field Services)
Harrahs Entrn HET Leisure (Gaming)
Hitachi LtdADR HIT Diversified Companies
Hecla Mining HL Mining (Gold\Silver)
Huaneng PwrADR HNP Utility (Electric)
Home SltnsOfAm HOM Building (Maint & Svc)
 
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