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- Thread starter $CostAverageMAN
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ISE was a great call....I must say....Was averaging in with increased size on the 30th and 31st of January....Very happy with the results so far...I took some off the table today, but still a quick 16% on the whole position....
Made a bad call on REITS....I took it from my most overwieght sector (+5% of the portfolio) to one of my equalweights (less than 2%) unfortunately!!!!! Glad to have the ETF's still open at least...
Where do I begin....Just astonished with this market more so the performance of many broad sectors and my performance over the last 9 months, Personally.....I just wish I could find more bargains out there, but it's getting harder and harder.....By the way I'm out of USO completly and sold half of GSG (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index tracking ETF) early today...Will play this area day to day....
I am quite conservative right now and I did sell 1/5 of my portfolio today and put it short in the TWM and MZZ...Making this play was hard for me in this market, but like I said before early Feb. is where I felt the market was going to get it's pull back....Most indicators I follow are showing just small signs of strenght and earning's are almost over....What is the next catalyst? Bernake speaking soon and the risk of being 100% long with out of the money puts as my only protection that I currently think are going to expire worthless is just too optimistic for this old fart.....
$COSTAverageMAN
Made a bad call on REITS....I took it from my most overwieght sector (+5% of the portfolio) to one of my equalweights (less than 2%) unfortunately!!!!! Glad to have the ETF's still open at least...
Where do I begin....Just astonished with this market more so the performance of many broad sectors and my performance over the last 9 months, Personally.....I just wish I could find more bargains out there, but it's getting harder and harder.....By the way I'm out of USO completly and sold half of GSG (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index tracking ETF) early today...Will play this area day to day....
I am quite conservative right now and I did sell 1/5 of my portfolio today and put it short in the TWM and MZZ...Making this play was hard for me in this market, but like I said before early Feb. is where I felt the market was going to get it's pull back....Most indicators I follow are showing just small signs of strenght and earning's are almost over....What is the next catalyst? Bernake speaking soon and the risk of being 100% long with out of the money puts as my only protection that I currently think are going to expire worthless is just too optimistic for this old fart.....
$COSTAverageMAN
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Anyone one notice the formation of a pretty clear Head and Shoulders pattern built on the QQQQ's.....Just thought I would mention considering this is the 1st leg of the right shoulder....Classic weak volume going into the head, followed by increasing downside pressure....Weak volume test of the left shoulder highs and Friday we get almost every sector down....Every index except utilities were in the red....Leadership like steel, leisure, financial, paper, telecomm and REITS all down over 1% and many of those stocks took a beating.....Ran some numbers for you all....
Of the 5820 stocks (CEF's and ETF's included) that trade on Nasdaq and the NYSE
196 were down 4% or more
214 were down between 3% and 4%
498 were down between 2% and 3%
475 were down between 1.5% and 2%
635 were down between 1.0% and 1.5%
393 were down between .75% and 1.0%
476 were down between .5% and .75%
480 were down between .25% and .5%
433 were down between 0% and .25%
3800/5820=65.3%
353 unchanged=6.1%
353 were up between 0% and .25%
314 were up between .25% and .5%
181 were up between .5% and .75%
148 were up between .75% and 1.0%
182 were up between 1.0% and 1.5%
141 were up between 1.5% and 2.0%
133 were up between 2.0% and 3.0%
75 were up between 3.0% and 4.0%
124 were up 4% or more
1651/5820=28.4%
Needless to say it was a bad day for the market and a bit disturbing seeing the formation on the QQQQ's.....They were a big part of our leadership and could take the DJIA and S&P's right out of thier steady trend line.....Tech made the rally and Tech sure could take it away.....Major leadership broke down Friday and I would be very careful opening up new positions for a hold on Monday....Expiration week as well and Iran on the table....CASH is KING
$COSTAverageMAN
Of the 5820 stocks (CEF's and ETF's included) that trade on Nasdaq and the NYSE
196 were down 4% or more
214 were down between 3% and 4%
498 were down between 2% and 3%
475 were down between 1.5% and 2%
635 were down between 1.0% and 1.5%
393 were down between .75% and 1.0%
476 were down between .5% and .75%
480 were down between .25% and .5%
433 were down between 0% and .25%
3800/5820=65.3%
353 unchanged=6.1%
353 were up between 0% and .25%
314 were up between .25% and .5%
181 were up between .5% and .75%
148 were up between .75% and 1.0%
182 were up between 1.0% and 1.5%
141 were up between 1.5% and 2.0%
133 were up between 2.0% and 3.0%
75 were up between 3.0% and 4.0%
124 were up 4% or more
1651/5820=28.4%
Needless to say it was a bad day for the market and a bit disturbing seeing the formation on the QQQQ's.....They were a big part of our leadership and could take the DJIA and S&P's right out of thier steady trend line.....Tech made the rally and Tech sure could take it away.....Major leadership broke down Friday and I would be very careful opening up new positions for a hold on Monday....Expiration week as well and Iran on the table....CASH is KING
$COSTAverageMAN
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Yup, cash is king.
Subprime lenders shorts last week were quite lucrative if you could get filled. I am closely watching that area for further breakdowns and widening of the risk premium in bonds that will indicate a re-adjustment of the current goldilocks scenario. Looking for a catalyst? There you go.
BTW option vols are at such low values that you might just be fine buying more of those to protect your positions - the cost is minimal.
Subprime lenders shorts last week were quite lucrative if you could get filled. I am closely watching that area for further breakdowns and widening of the risk premium in bonds that will indicate a re-adjustment of the current goldilocks scenario. Looking for a catalyst? There you go.
BTW option vols are at such low values that you might just be fine buying more of those to protect your positions - the cost is minimal.
$cost, how did you get your charts to look like that?..is there a way to do that with the free ones offered on the site?
cm69
cm69
Another ugly tape today!!!!
only 5 sectors in the green today followed by just utilities up on friday....Metal products (mostly because of BW and NVL), Transports were up .25%, Steel up .21%, Healthcare up .12%, and chemical with a meager .04% rise.....
The permabulls are taking it hard....the Indexes didn't represent the weakness in the market today.....It was another ugly day and CASH is Still KING....
$COSTAverageMAN
only 5 sectors in the green today followed by just utilities up on friday....Metal products (mostly because of BW and NVL), Transports were up .25%, Steel up .21%, Healthcare up .12%, and chemical with a meager .04% rise.....
The permabulls are taking it hard....the Indexes didn't represent the weakness in the market today.....It was another ugly day and CASH is Still KING....
$COSTAverageMAN
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Good morning
Taking a very hard look at getting back into RAIL at these levels and lower, But I may wait until ARII reports on WED.....It's been a straight line down from 58 when I sold, but this discount may not last....(The CC had it's worries with orders projected to be down in 2007 and they offered no real guidance looking foward) Going to have to stage the buys in this market, but I'm being patient...Not sure if the Buyback kicked in today or are they waiting for high 40's..Nice Volume today, but the stock stayed stable.....A big problem is the declining backlog and I see that they specialize in Coal Hoppers and they have plenty of them which I guess are used in the Oil Sands, but lack the liquid cars for ethanol and Coal prices and profits have been dropping. Hard to tell if it just looks cheap on the surface or is 2007 going to be the year they falter....Heck Gendell doesn't even own this name and he has a nice position in this industry....
Other Related names: (You all know how I love this sector since you can't pipe ethanol and we don't buy anything with MADE In The USA stamped on it anymore)....
GBX I'm still holding from 26.80 bck in January (Thanks Gendell), but it hasn't really moved....WNC (kind of related) still holding from early August when it plumeted (Thanks Gendell)....TRN (Thanks Gendell) Still holding from early January, but I took 1/2 off the table last Wed. at 40.02 when I got stopped out of RAIL at 57.98.....ARII already started to reverse back up after it's beatdown and ahead of it's earning's on the 14th of this month (Just moved the RAIL and TRN money into this one last Wed.)....Will hold 1/2 or less of the position into the 14th....
$COSTAverageMAN
Decent Article on RAIL:
FreightCar America (NASDAQ: RAIL - News) is what Joel Greenblatt would call a âMagic Formula Stockâ (from his popular The Little Book that Beats the Market), which is currently in the top 30 ranks in terms of high EBIT/EV (return on capital), coupled with high EBIT/Price (earnings yield). With a PE around 6, a nil chance of bankruptcy, and solid growth over the past few years, there is no doubt the companyâs numbers look attractive and a possible buying opportunity exists.
Before saying anything else on this company (and to avoid saying whatâs already been said just as well if not better), Iâve found it instructive to check out Hans Wagnerâs recent post, upon which I hope to build.
Leaving aside all the numbers (important though they are), this seems like an interesting opportunity for several reasons. With an estimated 87% market share for its main product and significant barriers to entry for competitors (including high customer switching costs, economies of scale, and ongoing industry consolidation), the company is not likely to go out of business anytime soon. Furthermore, the company used the proceeds from its IPO a while back to pay off substantially all of its debt, giving it a capital structure far more enticing and significantly less risky than its major competitors (of which, I add, there are only about 3 or 4). Not to mention the fact that FreightCar Americaâs margins are slightly more intriguing.
So whatâs the problem? For me itâs simply a âtoo hard to understandâ proposition. Not so much because I donât understand the business per se, but because I donât fully understand the industry and where itâs headed (at least not yet). The number of railcars delivered in any given period of year fluctuates wildly, and the companyâs results will logically suffer the same fate. Due to the erratic nature of industry and, by extension, company earnings, I donât think I can place a reasonable valuation on the business. The companyâs fortunes are also highly dependent on the coal industryâs fortunes, and I am far from an expert on the coal industry.
Nonetheless, a cursory glance at the company reveals that it may be relatively undervalued when stacked up against its peers. Given its solid competitive position, strong capital structure, and ability to have weathered recent cyclical downturns, it makes little sense that the company should trade at a PE less than half that of its more poorly positioned peers (including Trinity Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRN - News), American Railcar Industries (NASDAQ: ARII - News), and Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX - News)).
My conjecture is that the biggest variables affecting this discrepancy are 1) the differences among most recently reported backlogs (RAILâs competitors have all seen backlog increase in their latest 10-Qs, while RAIL has seen a significant decrease in its backlog), and 2) concern over a cyclical downturn in the coal market, to which RAILâs profits (but not necessarily its competitorsâ profits) are inextricably linked.
The key questions for any investment or nifty long-short trade (i.e. buying RAIL and shorting an appropriate basket of its competitors) are logically 1) whether this represents an overreaction by the market and 2) what does the coal market look like going forward. Given that the company is qualitatively strong vis-a-vis its competitors, an investor who can answer these questions correctly may stand to profit handsomely.
Taking a very hard look at getting back into RAIL at these levels and lower, But I may wait until ARII reports on WED.....It's been a straight line down from 58 when I sold, but this discount may not last....(The CC had it's worries with orders projected to be down in 2007 and they offered no real guidance looking foward) Going to have to stage the buys in this market, but I'm being patient...Not sure if the Buyback kicked in today or are they waiting for high 40's..Nice Volume today, but the stock stayed stable.....A big problem is the declining backlog and I see that they specialize in Coal Hoppers and they have plenty of them which I guess are used in the Oil Sands, but lack the liquid cars for ethanol and Coal prices and profits have been dropping. Hard to tell if it just looks cheap on the surface or is 2007 going to be the year they falter....Heck Gendell doesn't even own this name and he has a nice position in this industry....
Other Related names: (You all know how I love this sector since you can't pipe ethanol and we don't buy anything with MADE In The USA stamped on it anymore)....
GBX I'm still holding from 26.80 bck in January (Thanks Gendell), but it hasn't really moved....WNC (kind of related) still holding from early August when it plumeted (Thanks Gendell)....TRN (Thanks Gendell) Still holding from early January, but I took 1/2 off the table last Wed. at 40.02 when I got stopped out of RAIL at 57.98.....ARII already started to reverse back up after it's beatdown and ahead of it's earning's on the 14th of this month (Just moved the RAIL and TRN money into this one last Wed.)....Will hold 1/2 or less of the position into the 14th....
$COSTAverageMAN
Decent Article on RAIL:
FreightCar America (NASDAQ: RAIL - News) is what Joel Greenblatt would call a âMagic Formula Stockâ (from his popular The Little Book that Beats the Market), which is currently in the top 30 ranks in terms of high EBIT/EV (return on capital), coupled with high EBIT/Price (earnings yield). With a PE around 6, a nil chance of bankruptcy, and solid growth over the past few years, there is no doubt the companyâs numbers look attractive and a possible buying opportunity exists.
Before saying anything else on this company (and to avoid saying whatâs already been said just as well if not better), Iâve found it instructive to check out Hans Wagnerâs recent post, upon which I hope to build.
Leaving aside all the numbers (important though they are), this seems like an interesting opportunity for several reasons. With an estimated 87% market share for its main product and significant barriers to entry for competitors (including high customer switching costs, economies of scale, and ongoing industry consolidation), the company is not likely to go out of business anytime soon. Furthermore, the company used the proceeds from its IPO a while back to pay off substantially all of its debt, giving it a capital structure far more enticing and significantly less risky than its major competitors (of which, I add, there are only about 3 or 4). Not to mention the fact that FreightCar Americaâs margins are slightly more intriguing.
So whatâs the problem? For me itâs simply a âtoo hard to understandâ proposition. Not so much because I donât understand the business per se, but because I donât fully understand the industry and where itâs headed (at least not yet). The number of railcars delivered in any given period of year fluctuates wildly, and the companyâs results will logically suffer the same fate. Due to the erratic nature of industry and, by extension, company earnings, I donât think I can place a reasonable valuation on the business. The companyâs fortunes are also highly dependent on the coal industryâs fortunes, and I am far from an expert on the coal industry.
Nonetheless, a cursory glance at the company reveals that it may be relatively undervalued when stacked up against its peers. Given its solid competitive position, strong capital structure, and ability to have weathered recent cyclical downturns, it makes little sense that the company should trade at a PE less than half that of its more poorly positioned peers (including Trinity Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRN - News), American Railcar Industries (NASDAQ: ARII - News), and Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX - News)).
My conjecture is that the biggest variables affecting this discrepancy are 1) the differences among most recently reported backlogs (RAILâs competitors have all seen backlog increase in their latest 10-Qs, while RAIL has seen a significant decrease in its backlog), and 2) concern over a cyclical downturn in the coal market, to which RAILâs profits (but not necessarily its competitorsâ profits) are inextricably linked.
The key questions for any investment or nifty long-short trade (i.e. buying RAIL and shorting an appropriate basket of its competitors) are logically 1) whether this represents an overreaction by the market and 2) what does the coal market look like going forward. Given that the company is qualitatively strong vis-a-vis its competitors, an investor who can answer these questions correctly may stand to profit handsomely.
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Gendell reported he bought 17 million shares of TRN around 43.00 on the 16th and 20th of Feb...
yesterday.....I love this man and what he does for my stocks....I mean his stocks that I'm piggybacking on...And TRN just came out with some pretty decent numbers after the bell today.....
WABASH NATIONAL CORP: (WNC) was also in a recent report: Wabash National Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of truck trailers and transportation equipment in North America. It operates through two segments: Manufacturing, and Retail and Distribution.
Pretty much the same industry, just not as diversified as TRN....
Still waiting for the pull back in RAIL.....TRN, GBX, WNC, WAB have my full attention in this sector....NYSE over NASDAQ (RAIL and ARII) anyday...With ownership like Gendell and all the piggyback hedge fund boys these four are a must in the transport equipment sector....
$COSTAverageMAN
yesterday.....I love this man and what he does for my stocks....I mean his stocks that I'm piggybacking on...And TRN just came out with some pretty decent numbers after the bell today.....
WABASH NATIONAL CORP: (WNC) was also in a recent report: Wabash National Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of truck trailers and transportation equipment in North America. It operates through two segments: Manufacturing, and Retail and Distribution.
Pretty much the same industry, just not as diversified as TRN....
Still waiting for the pull back in RAIL.....TRN, GBX, WNC, WAB have my full attention in this sector....NYSE over NASDAQ (RAIL and ARII) anyday...With ownership like Gendell and all the piggyback hedge fund boys these four are a must in the transport equipment sector....
$COSTAverageMAN
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More from Gendell -> http://www.stockpickr.com/port/Tontine-Partners/