Want To Share

1st. I have downed a nice chunk of Scotch

2nd. DIVERSIFICATION IS KEY

Now that the race is over and I made a nice profit and I had some time to think about it, I can once again reiterate my point about diversification..... It is up to each one of us to diversify our income, our savings, our strategies, our goals, more recently our currency, and our thoughts.......

We have to be able to think outside the box.....I just recently heard some news about how Americas most common retirement holdings (individual equities).....have been doing very poorly compared to the rest of the market....(example: INTC, GM, GE, MSFT).....Most of the stocks almost any American can name.....I don't need to be telling you guys this, because throughout the many other journals I have read I have come across many of the same equities I have been playing and many others that have caught my eye and look very interesting....

It's great to have a place like Elite Trader for everyone to share investing ideas, locate winners and share them with everyone...

You have to DIVERSIFY your BETS as well....Apply market strategy to horse racing!!!!
Back to todays race......My thought on the race was very simple the #3 (Keyed Entry) horse was the rabbit along with the #9 (Sharp Humor) was another rabbit (early speed) and was going to come out sprinting right next to another speedster the #4 (Sinister Minister) horse...These three are known for their speed and like I predicted both rabbits tired each other out along with a favorite the #4......They did keep the pace fast which was very important for my closers to have a chance....Todd Pletcher entered the #3 horse for this reason and this reason only....He was hoping for the legs of the early front runners to tire and have his stalker (#13 Bluegrass Cat) place in the money as it would stalk from just off the pace......Todd is a very methodical man...

Horses that got eliminated early from my brackets (All the Dogs of the race).....#20 (Flashy Bull) (0 of 21 boxes), #9 (Sharp Humor) (0 of 21 boxes), #15 (Seaside Retreat) (0 of 21 boxes), #12 (Private Vow) (0 of 21 boxes), #16(Cause to Believe) (2 of 21 boxes) another longshot to put in for a fourth place finish, #14 (Deputy Glitters) (4 of 21 boxes) my long shot to show up in 4th, but I never gave him a real prayer.....#3 (Keyed Entry) (3 of 21 boxes) since he was the rabbit he could of had a chance at getting 4th since he was going to be at the front for most of the race, #4(Sinister Minister) (5 of 21 boxes) since he was going to chase the rabbit I had to leave him in some boxes for a 4th place as well and he was a favorite...

Horses that I felt were going to run a good race and had a shot, but didn't end up in the top 4:

#5 (Point Determined) ( 8 of 21 boxes) a favorite, but a front runner that could get tired and he did.
#6 (Showing Up) (4 of 21 boxes) one of my front runners that I felt had a chance if the pace was mild and if he got a good trip...
#7 (Bob and Jon) (7 of 21 boxes) a favorite that could sit back and come from behind when the front runners tired. He stalked from traffic the whole race, very hard for a horse to pull this off
#10 (A.P. Warrior) (8 of 21 boxes) My long shot that I felt could place and had closing speed
#11 (Sweet Norther Saint) (8 of 21 boxes) a favorite, that I felt like would sit back and close great if he had a lane to run in
#17 (Lawyer Ron) (5 of 21 boxes) a favorite, but a front runner that was going to stalk a fast pace and could get tired or stuck in traffic
#18 (Brother Derek) (7 of 21 boxes) a favorite to place, but was coming from the outside with a rookie jockey...would of made a great headline story with a paralyzed trainer
#19 (Storm Treasure) (11 of 21 boxes) This horse closed absolutely amazing in its prep race, but has had very mixed previous results....This was my long shot that I really felt would come through...Now that I know the results I still feel I would have played it this way....There was no telling how this horse was going to run and if it would close as fast in a longer race....

Now to the top 4 horses the PAY DAY!!!!

I had the #8 (Barbaro) horse in 15 of the 21 boxes....He won the race.....This was a pretty easy pick to have in the boxes considering he was the favorite and undefeated and his jockey was the legendary EDGAR PRADO....Now to the 2nd place finisher #13 (Bluegrass Cat) I had this horse in 6 of the 21 boxes, mostly because of his trainer Todd Pletcher, Plether wouldn't train the horse unless he thought it had closing speed and could run behind his rabbit the #3 horse.....The 3rd finisher #2 (Steppenwolfer) I had this horse in 5 of 21 boxes....This was a horse that was very familiar with coming from behind and his jockey was very familiar with the Churchill Downs track....Not forgetting his second place finish at the Arkansas Derby as his prep race.....The 4th finisher #1 (Jazil) was only in 2 of the 21 boxes, but thank the lord he was in the right one for the Superfecta....This horse has a great trainer Kiaran Mclauglin and is owned by a Sheikh....That right there will tell you that the horse could close near the end...I was looking at how the horse came from 20 lengths off the pace in his last race to finish in 2nd just 1 1/2 lengths off the lead at a grade 1 race.....He was in last place after the 1st half mile in todays very fast pace race....WHAT A CLOSER....MY MONEY HORSE....$$$$$

You could call this a fluke if you just met me, but throughout my life horse racing has always been a hobby....This was my 9th Trifecta win at the Kentucky Derby and my 2nd Superfecta ever....This sport is a real gamble and I don't recommend it to anyone....I have never wagered this amount of money on a horse race, but the odds on this race were well worth the gamble....I did my Due Diligence just like any other investment, I ran spreadsheets of payouts, I had to make sure the reward was worth the risk.....Not to mention that the Market has been treating me so well recently that I couldn't help, but make a larger bet....And I did have a hedge in place by owning CHDN and DDE.....If this race was a major upset CHDN and DDE gap open on monday....Since the exotics were no easy pick, but the favorite did win, it will be interesting to see how DDE and CHDN react on MONDAY....

BTW excel still won't post so I'm going to try zipping it....

$COSTAverageMAN
 
edit:
My Calculations Should Pay out

4 Trifecta's =$45,673.60
1 Superfecta= $169,720.00

Total=$215,393.60-$10,080.00(Cost)=$205,313.60(Profit)

THE MAN (US Government) is going to get a fat piece of this

They didn't risk anything and they get paid.....YOU GOTTA LOVE THAT

I had $4 dollar tickets and I used the 2 dollar payout for trifecta....Left off 45K.....That's funny.....My good friend is at the derby and is holding my tickets for me to claim....Since I hit big I have to take care of tax forms....And he can't collect it for me...

4 Trifecta's = $91,347.20
1 Superfecta= $169,720.00

Total=$261,067.20-$10,080.00(Cost)=$250,986.20(Profit)

$COSTAverageMAN
 
What to do with the money.....I think I'm going to put up solar panels on the roof, Ask the wife to fix up the appliances and buy more energy efficient products....we still have some very old inefficient appliances in our house.....Buy the youngest a Toyota hybrid for his graduation.....And look into being able to install some type of gasoline tank underground on our property....I have not done my research on this, but it sounds like a great way to hedge some cataclysmic event that really shakes up our oil market....This is a little extreme, but it's thinking outside the box for this old man....Some sources of mine in the oil industry have concluded that at current gasoline demand rates Exxon Mobile has all ready predicted gasoline shortages for late Summer early Fall and the solution to this was going to be rationing for different markets.....Which I guess that means they will decide who gets what and then the pump owners will limit usage

$COSTAverageMAN
 
$Cost-
Congrats on your Derby bets.
I'm pretty ignorant of the horse racing industry. Why would
DDE and CHDN gap up Monday if an underdog won the Derby?
I thought the track "vig" is the same whether a favorite or underdog wins.
 
Quote from $CostAverageMAN:

One of my favorite days of the year is here....It's Derby Day!!!!!

Well here are my picks.......Lets hope for a clean fast race.....Upsets are WELCOME!!!!!

These are all exotic plays....My thought on the whole thing is why not bet all over the place.....I have yet to meet a winning horse better that only made one bet.....

Both Trifectas and Superfectas......They are all BOXED!!!!.....BOXED means that any combination of 1,2,3,4 of the five horses selected.....These are all $4 dollar tickets.....Total cost is $10,080.00.........

1.....18,10,8,19,14.....Trifecta and Superfecta
2.....10,11,18,19,7.....Trifecta and Superfecta
3......8,17,11,5,19.....Trifecta and Superfecta
4......5,11,18,19,13.....Trifecta and Superfecta
5.....10,8,11,19,7.....Trifecta and Superfecta
6.....10,11,13,2,8.....Trifecta and Superfecta
7.....18,8,6,19,7.....Trifecta and Superfecta
8.....11,8,1,4,5.....Trifecta and Superfecta
9.....10,5,8,19,2.....Trifecta and Superfecta
10....8,4,2,19,13.....Trifecta and Superfecta
11...17,8,13,6,10.....Trifecta and Superfecta
12.....7,4,6,19,3.....Trifecta and Superfecta
13.....7,6,3,14,17.....Trifecta and Superfecta
14.....3,14,19,8,7.....Trifecta and Superfecta
15....11,16,7,5,4.....Trifecta and Superfecta
16.....8,10,1,13,2.....Trifecta and Superfecta
17....18,8,2,6,5.....Trifecta and Superfecta
18.....2,8,14,19,13.....Trifecta and Superfecta
19.....8,5,16,4,3.....Trifecta and Superfecta
20....18,5,7,11,17.....Trifecta and Superfecta
21....17,18,8,4,10.....Trifecta and Superfecta
More...

Could you scan and post your tickets after you get them from your friend?..Your math is wrong...you keep saying that your total cost was $10,080.00 but that is impossible..

You would have needed to spend $10,080.00 JUST to play the Superfecta with your picks using 5 horses on each bet and you said you bet $4.00 tickets on each box selection..to box 5 horses in the Superfecta it would have cost you $480.00 for each selection for your $4.00 tickets...so you had 21 boxed selections so 21x$480.00 = $ 10,080.00

So where is the cost for all your trifecta boxes you said you bet?

To box each of your 5 horses in each selection for the Trifecta would cost you $240.00 based on a $4.00 ticket...so for the trifecta bets alone, it would have cost you $240.00 x 21 Selections= $ 5,040.00

So now your bets are up to $15,120 ( $10,080.00 + $5,040.00)
 
Quote from $CostAverageMAN:

edit:
My Calculations Should Pay out

4 Trifecta's =$45,673.60
1 Superfecta= $169,720.00

Total=$215,393.60-$10,080.00(Cost)=$205,313.60(Profit)

THE MAN (US Government) is going to get a fat piece of this

They didn't risk anything and they get paid.....YOU GOTTA LOVE THAT

I had $4 dollar tickets and I used the 2 dollar payout for trifecta....Left off 45K.....That's funny.....My good friend is at the derby and is holding my tickets for me to claim....Since I hit big I have to take care of tax forms....And he can't collect it for me...

4 Trifecta's = $91,347.20
1 Superfecta= $169,720.00

Total=$261,067.20-$10,080.00(Cost)=$250,986.20(Profit)

$COSTAverageMAN
More...

Again, your cost figure is wrong...how can you keep posting the incorrect figure if you really made the bets?
 
Cost, Geez!! How the heck do you have the time to do all the global equity and economic analysis that you do, track and trade your global portfolio, and then still find time to do a thorough analysis of the derby?!?! I hope I have as much energy when I am retired (wish I had it now!). I'll bet your secret is that you truly love what you do. God bless you.
 
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