Thats so not true dude... being able to predict the underlying's behavior is the key to options trading. Thats why options exist. Duh.
Even as this poster pointed out:
He was still basing his trade on the degree of movement TSLA would make, up or down. He didn't know, but he figured out a range and a degree of volatility.
So to say "No NO NO.... This is utter clueless advice", is in fact, .........clueless advice.
I'm no Mark Douglas...but perhaps you are misinterpreting his words. What LL said is 100% right, you just misinterpreted his words too. You're batting zero.
And your posts about these forums being for 95% losers.... well.... I see you're posting here too. And somehow I suspect you are not in the ranks of the worlds top 5% option traders... cause if you were, you'd be on a fucking island somewhere with a babe, strumming a guitar and sipping foo-foo drinks.
Not sure what your agenda here is, but if these folks want their soul saved, they can get that at the local Salvation Army... and get a free dinner in the process.
-vz
You ave not got a clue what you are talking about.You are talking nonsense , but I don't expect any more on forums
atrp2biz said:
I don't necessarily agree with this. On my
TSLA short straddle, for the first week I was wrong on underlying direction and vol but still was a small winner. The position has turned around nicely now that vol has come in and the underlying is pinning the strike.
It is difficult to know direction of option prices on expiry , the person a lottery , but he was right because volatility broke out .When you put on a option trade , it may be expire +4% or minus 6% or expire at the money .
I actually buy weekly straddles regularly , if they are underpriced , they still make money when volatility breaks out , I never know the direction
You ain't got a clue about real trading .2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money , you don't need to know direction of next trade in options , I write options , based on statistical performance of specific options .3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
Keep your snake oil about direction in your 95 % club , THIS SNAKE OIL has been going on for centuries , the 95 % rule has been there for a long time , that is why you are here on this forum.This direction bit on options does not work.
In order to make money from options , you have to have an edge over the options formula because 98 % are using the same option calculators .This edge comes from outside the box and the calculations of the option formulas.
You have had thousands of journals on technical analysis based trading on direction , all these failed including including many snake oil educators , so please keep this snake oil to yourself.
-- so greatly focus, or understand, that above all else.
