Wallstreet Is Total Manipulation!!!

Mkts have a history of getting BLINDSIDED from some event none of the talking heads even have on their radar. Bottom line, just trade it and be happy.

Trying to guess the mkts next move, aside from knowing what those squiggly lines represent is a waste of time. Did i just make a case to become a day trader? :D

Find your niche and know it well, who cares about what the future brings.

Yogi Berra said: It is impossible what will happen next. Especially if it is in the future.......... :)

Trading is a profession. Trying to predict the mkts next move is a useless exercise at best.

the funny deal is that we all in our hearts and minds know that but humans have a basd habit of trying to outsmart the next guy in useless dribble of mkt direction.
 
all this bullish sentiment only confirms my view, everybody has bought, bought, and bought some more; and this is where we are with the QQQQ`s in a trading range from Nov. 24th====all the BULL ISHNESS IS PRICED INTO THE MARKET; the BEARISHNESS ISN`T PRICED IN===ergo-----nowhere to go---but down---just look at the qqqq`s for a month of bull buying,,,,that`s the top-----so once we have any selling, the market goes down from here!

You have nobody but me as a bear, so where are you going to get new buyers from.....huh?

But I have a whole bunch of NEW sellers to gain out there in the trading world, and once a little selling starts, the stampede begins--and my side starts getting the bandwagon folks that reside in most of the herd mentality market behavior that wallstreet seems to encourage, perpetuate, and spit out like yesterday`s pretenders!
 
For the bears :

sell futures, buy out-of-the-money calls

For the bulls :

buy futures, buy out-of-the-money puts

Hope, everybody is satisfied...:D
 
Quote from BlueStreek:

all this bullish sentiment only confirms my view, everybody has bought, bought, and bought some more; and this is where we are with the QQQQ`s in a trading range from Nov. 24th====all the BULL ISHNESS IS PRICED INTO THE MARKET; the BEARISHNESS ISN`T PRICED IN===ergo-----nowhere to go---but down---just look at the qqqq`s for a month of bull buying,,,,that`s the top-----so once we have any selling, the market goes down from here!

You have nobody but me as a bear, so where are you going to get new buyers from.....huh?

But I have a whole bunch of NEW sellers to gain out there in the trading world, and once a little selling starts, the stampede begins--and my side starts getting the bandwagon folks that reside in most of the herd mentality market behavior that wallstreet seems to encourage, perpetuate, and spit out like yesterday`s pretenders!
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"BEARISHNESS ISN'T PRICED IN===...."

Who says it isn't priced in? You've been shorting the market, isn't that priced in?

Your argument is tired and old. Over and over again. The market has to go down, i'm short, blah blah blah. One of these days, you will be right. But up to that point, how many times have you been wrong?

As for what's priced and what isn't, are the 'bear' side points a big secret? An overleveraged consumer, no secret. A deteriorating housing market, no secret (it would appear the housing stocks have tumbled considerably). U.S. running a very large trade deficit, no secret (gold is up and the U.S. dollar has fallen considerably). Oil is still high, no secret. The Iraq situation is a mess, no secret. The house is at a standstill, no secret. Bush is a terrible president, no secret. GM and Ford are losing money, no secret.

So tell us, what bearish news is currently not in the public realm. What is not known at this point? Pray tell.

One thing you fail to mention is that markets around the world are all hitting new highs. Does that say something to you? Has the world ever seen this type of synchronized global economic growth before? Ask yourself that?

Good luck.
 
again the fact that all these indices/markets are at 6 year highs should tell you something.....all the liquidity (as much as it is) is already accounted for, and in the markets.............what happens when "those margin calls/markers" are called in......the fed wants to dry up some of the inflationary.......dollar devaluing liquidity in the market.

Come on....just b/c people have heard about those possible negatives.........doesn`t mean they are being priced into the market......otherwise, the vix wouldn`t be under 10.....and at historic lows..............what I am saying is that we are in denial...............like all bubbles are..........housing last year to name one recent example with all the arms financing.

Moreover, that for the sake of a "blinder x-mas rally" where fundamentals no longer matter so we can get our year end bonuses, we have built up/creaed an overinflated market with overinflated stock valuations where the code word is "multiple expansion" which is complete bs as you know yoy comps will be bad, and like blood in the water for sharks, see black and decker, companies will get killed if their earnings stop growing at over 14%.

But the fund managers/ wallstreet is so full of it with their dow up 14% next year x-mas predictions that occur evey year at this time when last may where was abby cohen when the nasdaq was at 16 month lows.....its a game.....they pump it up november/december............sell it off........and come in and buy them all back over the summer.

my contention is that b/c of enormous, unprecedented liquidity negative news is not priced in....and that once you take the liquidity out of the market---which cannot be sustained at this pace---the market corrects to more familiar territory.

I do not agree that markets are always priced correctly....in fact, i believe that often times markets/companies are mispriced like dell at 18.95 (undervalued) intc (16.00) undervalued, msft 22.00 (undervalued) etc.....goog 515 (overvalued) BIDU (128.00-OVERVALUED).....CHTR 3.06---OVERVALUED.

NASDAQ=5,000 OVERVALUED; DOW 12,400 (OVER-VALUED)
SNP 500 (1425--OVER-VALUED) BASED UPON my analysis of the substantial runnup from July 30th till present---the markets are far-over-valued and are due for a near-term correction.

You cannot say that fundamentally speaking anything has happened in the economy to warrant the qqqq`s running up from 35 in july to 44.80 in November (5 months)-----WITH THAT KIND OF RUNNUP NO BAD NEWS IS BEING "CORRECTLY" PRICED INTO THE MARKET!

liquidity is absolute....and is absolutely being substituted for any rational notion that should pertain to RISK that all healthy markets must contain--------otherwise you get what we always get when risk is not being taken seriously in markets----a good old fashion asset bubble------and what happens when risk gets "repriced into markets" i.e., the vix goes back to 16.00 (not a historic high mark) asset bubbles crash back to reality......i.e., more rational levels of sustainable price action become the norm.

In other words, you cannot buy a condo in Miami for 3 mm and flip it for 8 mm 3 months later without that being an asset bubble. likewise, you cannot buy chtr for 1.08 in august and flip it for 3.06 in November without that being the top of an overinflated asset bubble that must correct--and the longer it takes to correct--the steeper that correction will be.

Just like there was plenty of liquidity in the housing market---liquidity is by no means a proper subsitution for rational price appreciation--this runnup is not exemplary of rational price appreciation--and as such, will correct!
 
blue, I don't think you'll get any argument that the market will correct. The argument is when?

The reason you get slammed so hard is because you think it will correct NOW. Yet when you present your rationales, you mention things that are future possibilities, and perhaps VERY far in the future possibilities.

Ie, in 2000, the market began a correction. It didn't start a true freefall til 9/11/2001. Then the shit hit the fan.

Now, in 1998, there were a LOT of people saying the same things you are now. And then, you weren't talking about an average 18 P/E as you are calling bubble valuations today... back then, the AVERAGE P/E was 28, and everyone's favorite stocks, the ones that had the volume day in day out, were OVER 100 in quite a few cases.

When they were bears in 1998, if they followed their own reasoning, they did not participate, or even shorted the market. Those people had to have lost MORE in some cases than those who held long thru 2003. The shorts had to have gone bankrupt if they began shorting in 1998. Because from 1998 to 2000... wow... the markets moved a lot upside.

Now, why do you think that this is really 2000, and not 1998 is what I want to know?

Any potential event can kick the market to freefall... but that's been the case for 100 years. If last year say, we had a terrorist attack, do you think we'd have the runup we did these last 5 months? No, you know we wouldn't have. So this cannot be justification for your position, because 'what ifs' that are always true cannot persuade anyone RIGHT NOW to sell, because the 'what if' isn't true now.

Valuations? Valuations are nearly 1/2 of the highs this decade... and this is after 7 years of inflation. How do you figure they're high, relatively speaking?

High compared to the recession and the aftermath of a terrorist attack on US soil on 9/11/2001, the year of the lowest point of the stock market?

High when we initiated a unilateral war, against the approval of every nation on planet earth except 1, shortly after the above in 2003?

The market simply couldn't fall any farther, when nearly every stock on the exchange was selling for pennies on the dollar and many nations could buy an entire major US corporation with 1 year of US debt to them. It began going up... because ownership in US companies was nearly free, based on those valuations. Profitable companies with millions in cash were worth a dollar or 2 a share.

So what will cause it to drop NOW, when it's got a whole lot of ground to still make up, when we now have a democratic congress who doesn't want to start a war with every nation that looks at ours funny, Rumsfeld was shown the door, and China is fighting their own currency devaluation by propping up ours.... while at the same time, reducing their US dollar holdings (how? In the stock market? They sure aren't going to put it in more Real Estate right now).

Do you still think it's going to crash now and why? Because we're too smug about the market? If you're close to agreeing, let us know why:P.
 
dood, get a clue

this is 100% empirically verifiable as false

"High when we initiated a unilateral war, against the approval of very nation on planet earth except 1"

there were many nations that supported us besides the UK. get a frigging clue

and this does not mean i support the decision to invade. that's irrelevant to the fact that you are spouting lies.

i never support either dishonesty or ignorance. and your post is one or the other
 
Quote from whitster:

dood, get a clue

this is 100% empirically verifiable as false

"High when we initiated a unilateral war, against the approval of very nation on planet earth except 1"

there were many nations that supported us besides the UK. get a frigging clue

and this does not mean i support the decision to invade. that's irrelevant to the fact that you are spouting lies.

i never support either dishonesty or ignorance. and your post is one or the other
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Really? And can you name all these nations that supported our war in Iraq besides the UK?

And I mean by 'support', sent troops, money and supplies directly to assist in the war in Iraq.

With the sole exception of Germany, who the entire time blasted the US administration about the war, yet allowed our troops to be flown there and treated in their hospitals (last I looked, Germany is quite a ways from Iraq to fly severely injured soldiers to be treated), I don't recall any financial or military help from any other nation directly.

Name them all please... out of 240 countries on planet earth, I want to know which ones 'supported' it.

So, now Whitster, you are claiming that the war in Iraq was actually popular with other nations? That's what it would take for me to be called a 'liar'. I'm dying to see the supporting documents for this one:).
 
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