Wall Street thinks China will never invade Taiwan - but don’t bet on it

[Secret Sauce]

the west is going down the hill because ideology is dominating the western social agenda. Schools educate students to be so called talkative leaders instead of hard working scientists and engineers. In the last 20 years, Americans have made the wrong choice every time when they chose the next president.

I don't think it's about the president. The way I see it, with the American system of government, presidents can't do much about anything.

I however wholeheartedly agree with you that education has gone down the drain.


About the topic, the Chinese have, are, and will ONLY respect the stick both literally and figuratively. That's how they are as people, that's how they treat each other and that's how they will treat the world. With the US foreign policy LACKING TEETH, China will just go on its overreaching ways.

 

[Snuskpelle]

China can invade and win a conventional war for Taiwan now, and the strength disparity is going to accelerate further. An underlining example would be that aircraft carriers are becoming obsolete due to new anti-ship missiles. Compare to the Korean war when China was backwards and just had large numbers of troops to compensate - yet it could fight US forces to a stand still. Taiwan having a 'moat' is not sufficient for defense.

One hypothesis I've read is that Xi really wants to cement his place in China's history books by being the one to unite with Taiwan. If there is not a timeline like so, then China will be waiting for an opportunity when the US is preoccupied with some other conflict.

Xi and his ilk really care less about western monies than you might think; he is a great admirer of Mao after all.

Sure, this is arguably still a tail risk but I assign it a chance of multiples of tens of percent for it to happen in my life time, and I will probably live for another 40-50 years. More to the point, there's a decent chance for it happening in Xi's life time.

 

[trend2009]

most people in China believe Taiwan strait war will happen in 5 years before 2027, the 100th anniversary of people’s liberation army. Majority people in mainland China believe Taiwan will surrender in a few days if US does not directly participate the war, and most people think US dare not fight against Chinese army directly since US never fought against a superpower like Soviet Union during Cold War.

 

[patek643]

Is the West prepared? China has been preparing itself since 1949 when they lost the war for this opportunity to take Taiwan. What about the West? This is what I find disappointing about the West. All we do is talk now, debates and the filibusters and speeches, how about we DO something, something concrete, for once?

Are you done with your meltdown on an anonymous online forum? The irony.

 

[JSOP]

most people in China believe Taiwan strait war will happen in 5 years before 2027, the 100th anniversary of people’s liberation army. Majority people in mainland China believe Taiwan will surrender in a few days if US does not directly participate the war, and most people think US dare not fight against Chinese army directly since US never fought against a superpower like Soviet Union during Cold War.

Well if US and the West REALLY wants to engage China in a front-to-front combat regarding Taiwan, it needs to do it more strategically. Fighting a war that's not on your home turf can be really tricky especially when you don't even speak the language of the place that you are going into to fight nor are you of the culture of the place. This has been proven multiple times already, Vietnam War, Napoleon fighting in Russia, and most recently the Afghan war against the Taliban.

 

[JSOP]

Are you done with your meltdown on an anonymous online forum?

No.

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

too early to tell. Things, condition, fortune, people (like some crazy mandate from heaven would come along),... would change over time, then so would the status quo. who knows a meteor could hit the three gorges dam, then death, famine, chaos, civil war would ensue, then it could be Taiwan's chance to take back China.

 

[murray t turtle]

too early to tell. Things, condition, fortune, people (like some crazy mandate from heaven would come along),... would change over time, then so would the status quo. who knows a meteor could hit the three gorges dam, then death, famine, chaos, civil war would ensue, then it could be Taiwan's chance to take back China.

%%
Exactly+ war is the hardest thing to predict or even forecast/ much harder than the weather.
How many chicoms thought wiping out a bunch of small sparrows would kill 60 million chicoms of starvation/grasshopper plague??
HOW many thought a small bunch of rebels in 1776 would win/LOL??
HOW many thought a small bunch of rebels in Afghanistan could + would whip+ stinger the ''evil empire\USSSR??
HOW many thought a small bunch of Jews could whip a huge number of Arabs in 6 days?,?????

 

[Nobert]

Schools educate students to be so called talkative leaders instead of hard working scientists and engineers.

That's an epic truth.

 

[patek643]

%%
Exactly+ war is the hardest thing to predict or even forecast/ much harder than the weather.
How many chicoms thought wiping out a bunch of small sparrows would kill 60 million chicoms of starvation/grasshopper plague??
HOW many thought a small bunch of rebels in 1776 would win/LOL??
HOW many thought a small bunch of rebels in Afghanistan could + would whip+ stinger the ''evil empire\USSSR??
HOW many thought a small bunch of Jews could whip a huge number of Arabs in 6 days?,?????

You forgot two more:

HOW many thought a small bunch of Vietcong could + would whip+ stinger the Americans?
HOW many thought the same small bunch of rebels in Afghanistan could + would whip+ stinger the Americans over 20 years?