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Wall Street and oil prices.
- Thread starter sttrader
- Start date
Quote from Ivanovich:
Economies of scale. The people making money - real money - on this have the ability to put millions (though funds, banks, etc), if not more, into this market on speculative interest.
The every day Joe cannot. They just suffer.
so where should oil really be at since it is only being driven up by "speculation"? $40/barrel? should gas still be under $1.50/gallon? have you seen massive supply increases and massive demand decreases? please show me if you have.
and i just caught this...i like how you said people with "real money" have the ability to put MILLIONS into this market. lol as if millions is a lot. i'm not trying to be rude when i ask but are you a retail trader? your thinking is certainly indicative of a retail trader.
Instead of everyone complaining and saying "oh daddy government...save me from these oil prices"....why don't they just hop on the bandwagon if they think this speculation will keep prices high? Put up 10K and buy a contract....or buy a correlated ETF if they don't want to pursue the futures market. Oh wait....then when crude does correct they'll lose money...then cry to daddy govt. to save them from falling prices......ppl WAKE UP!!!! If you continually want the govt. to make sure you always make X amount of money and can buy X amount of things.....communism will soon follow...hello Soviet Union.....doesn't anybody keep track of history???? Thank you for putting up with my rant.....traderTX
Quote from S2007S:
Never said I knew where the top was but you do have to understand that oil is ready for a pullback sooner than later, im sitting tight with DEE, SMN, DUG and DCR.
and your prices aren't anywhere close to being profitable. i think your trading accumen is pretty well represented by your DCR trade where you didn't even understand that you were buying what amounted to an overpriced put option. you could simply bought some 96 or 97 june puts in USO and got a fair value for your money. instead you paid probably about 2 times more than what you should have paid for the equivalent option.
point being....you wrecklessly got into a trade without having a clue what was going on. pretty much the same thing as your current short oil and commodities trade. jump in head first and hope it works out.
Quote from Covert:
It may be that we just disagree, and that's fine, but I just don't think that the greater good should cause a govt. to interfere with a free market
I guess we can agree to disagree. But I believe the government SHOULD exist to protect the greater population. Now, the problem is that it selectively chooses when to do that.
Quote from robbie380:
so where should oil really be at since it is only being driven up by "speculation"? $40/barrel? should gas still be under $1.50/gallon? have you seen massive supply increases and massive demand decreases? please show me if you have.
and i just caught this...i like how you said people with "real money" have the ability to put MILLIONS into this market. lol as if millions is a lot. i'm not trying to be rude when i ask but are you a retail trader? your thinking is certainly indicative of a retail trader.
1. I said "millions, if not more". If it's the "m" you're laughing at, fine. Put a B in front of it. Or a TR if you want. But get off the semantics.
2. As for what portion is speculative and what is fundamental, I certainly am not privy to that information. I'm not even sure if anyone is.
Quote from robbie380:
and your prices aren't anywhere close to being profitable. i think your trading accumen is pretty well represented by your DCR trade where you didn't even understand that you were buying what amounted to an overpriced put option. you could simply bought some 96 or 97 june puts in USO and got a fair value for your money. instead you paid probably about 2 times more than what you should have paid for the equivalent option.
point being....you wrecklessly got into a trade without having a clue what was going on. pretty much the same thing as your current short oil and commodities trade. jump in head first and hope it works out.
Im in DCR around $3.15, all oil has to do is drop below $115 a barrel between now and the end of June and my holding will be worth more than what I paid for it, oil will fall alot quicker than it rose, im not worried.
LONG
DCR, DEE, SMN and DUG.
Quote from robbie380:
so where should oil really be at since it is only being driven up by "speculation"? $40/barrel? should gas still be under $1.50/gallon? have you seen massive supply increases and massive demand decreases? please show me if you have.
yeah, its all supply and demand...
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JE06Dj07.html
Quote from Ivanovich:
I guess we can agree to disagree. But I believe the government SHOULD exist to protect the greater population. Now, the problem is that it selectively chooses when to do that.
I couldn't agree more. However, interfering in a working free market is really just changing the rules midstream. If, when oil was priced at $18/b, and the Federal Govt. said "if oil prices rise to the level that our country cannot function productively, then we will intervene", this would be another matter. I still couldn't get behind that kind of nonsense ( and that's just a poor hypothetical). But, that would be a previously stated policy, and the oil companies would be able to adjust their own strategies accordingly. To change the rules now would be a disaster.
Would I like to be paying $2/gallon for gas? You bet I would. I just think that the witchhunt going on is really counterproductive.