Wake Up Early And Short Aapl As It Will Fall Below 75!!!

Everyone (the analysts especially) keeps saying that there are no problems with the options scandal. However, this particular options scandal does appear to be escalating and not deflating.

First, it seemed like not a big deal. Ho-hum. Then we start hearing about the feds investigating and then Jobs hiring a dedicated attorney for the matter.

The analysts keep saying that its not a big deal, but then why is Jobs hiring an attorney and why are the Feds investigating. How can the analysts be so certain that Jobs was not involved? Did they interview Jobs personally and get his side of the story?

Now that Jobs is lawyered up, there will be no immediate answers. Instead there might be an investigation, a grand jury probe, etc.

My opinion is that it will slowly get worse from here just like CMVT. CMVT seemed to start off the year well enough, but then things slowly unraveled with the options scandal and as the truth was learned, the stock sold off in a painfully slow manner over the course of months.

Quote from kashirin:

The problem here that Apple without Jobs is not Apple
And todays action might force him to resign very soon.
It might be even criminal charges against him.
Several articles on the web estimate damage from his departure around 20% for PPS
And considering current developments 10% of those 20 can be taken tommorow.

I'm definetely going to short tomorrow morning
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well aaple finished at 79.05----i bet it trades below 76 tomorrow----AND I AM CALLING IT BEFOREHAND, so you can short 2000 shares tomorrow and cover for a nice 3.00 plus profit per share---will that meet your money making criteria?


you go long apple tomorrow pre-market----there`s a money making strategy for ya moron!
 
Quote from thehangingman:

Its only 367k in afterhours versus 24.8 million in average volume.
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When a stock falls 3% in AH it will continue to fall the next day 95% of the time.
 
Quote from BlueStreek:

well aaple finished at 79.05----i bet it trades below 76 tomorrow----AND I AM CALLING IT BEFOREHAND, so you can short 2000 shares tomorrow and cover for a nice 3.00 plus profit per share---will that meet your money making criteria?


you go long apple tomorrow pre-market----there`s a money making strategy for ya moron!
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this is awefully reminiscent of something i'd see on a yahoo board.

this news as of late seems very cleverly timed and wreaks of manipulation, since its actually not new news. read this original release, and the only seeming difference here is 7.5m shares mentioned, which I'm sure some other news report from October covered.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={7287862C-92BC-48D3-A52E-3032E274D6BB}

friday will hopefully put this behind us...
 
Here is something to consider, today was extremely bullish, considering the low volume post xmas trading days etc.

How would AAPL behave on a down day ?

How would AAPL behave with some more negatives news to be added to what happened this morning ?

Sorry but tomorrow, Im on the short side.

Not calling a downday, in fact todays price action was very surprising but I wouldnt want to be caught longing AAPL with this mess; and this is coming from a trader who does takes risks.
 
the news came out very late in ah.....too late for most traders to even realize it.

today`s news was spun as mostly "unconfirmed gossip" but we have confirmed news which was released like 7:45 eastern time when nobody was expecting it....and certainly not participating in an a ah earning`s trade (even those peter out around 7:45 eastern time). so there is more pain to come..... trust me.....based on the news releaed late today----it will get punished.

it may recover but only if other news comes out to "explain away" this news which contradicts previous news that was spun as mere speculative gossip. afterall, the precedent is kb home ceo stepping down, unh stepping down----not exactly ah inspiring at this point if you are a long.

blood in the water attracts the sharks....and wallstreet is full of sharks in my opinion.....blood thirsty, ruthless sharks who eat their offspring:)
 
Best guess is the market will be up tommorrow, but down Friday because no one wants to hold through the long weekend especially with Ford's funeral closing the markets for a day.

My long term sentiment on Apple is bearish, but not sure about the immediate term. There are many traders on top of this stock everyday and so I assume that any gap down will be perceived as an opportunity like today.

Quote from BlueStreek:

the news came out very late in ah.....too late for most traders to even realize it.

today`s news was spun as mostly "unconfirmed gossip" but we have confirmed news which was released like 7:45 eastern time when nobody was expecting it....and certainly not participating in an a ah earning`s trade (even those peter out around 7:45 eastern time). so there is more pain to come..... trust me.....based on the news releaed late today----it will get punished.

it may recover but only if other news comes out to "explain away" this news which contradicts previous news that was spun as mere speculative gossip. afterall, the precedent is kb home ceo stepping down, unh stepping down----not exactly ah inspiring at this point if you are a long.

blood in the water attracts the sharks....and wallstreet is full of sharks in my opinion.....blood thirsty, ruthless sharks who eat their offspring:)
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Just remember panic brings opportunity. If you are going to short along with the panic get out quick because apple is about to announce blow out earnings in the next two weeks and all of this will be forgotten.
 
All this option scandal is bullshit.

Invest somewhere else, no reason to risk your money with so much crap happening in AAPL.

It's a great co., great products, go ahead and buy some Ipods, some Macbooks, they rock. However, at this point, investing in AAPL is just scary stuff, no matter how solid the earnings are.

At the same time, it has a strong following and everything is indicating the strong of posibility of good earnings so shorting is not a good idea either.

If this was Joe's Fruit with the whole scandal business it would be trading at a PE below 10. AAPL is lucky to have Jobs and if Jobs gets in trouble, that's like holding a biotech co. whose best product got killed by the FDA. Again, more risk. Unlikely that Job gets in real trouble but still a possibility.

Lots of better plays out there.

Look into MPEL, TATTF, SIM (looking cheap), INFY, EMC, ENCY, GSH, etc.
 
I dont disagree that the earnings will be strong.

However, since the street is so bullish, no one is going to act like its a big deal. They were expecting it and, as such, it will be priced in up until the earnings call. Over the summer, certain stocks with good earnings and great outlook sold off because it was perceived that this was as good as it was going to get.

When May 1st hit this year, it seemed the market went into an instant panic where stocks sold off for 2-3 months. Will that happen in the New Year? Its a possibility.

As for the options scandal, it does seem to be intensifying with attorneys being hired and the feds looking deeper into the situation. I dont perceive this situation as a non-issue as if a few contracts were mistakingly backdated. This sounds like outright fraud with a phoney board level meeting and fake documentation. How many other CEOs have hired an outside attorney in this situation? Then there is the question if this will serve as a distraction for management. Yes it will.

Marvell and CMVT had sold off from the start of 2006 and still havent reached their pre-options scandal levels. Cramer had been pumping Marvell all along while it went from the 30s to the teens where it still is today. Lots of analyst bullishness on Marvell, but where is the price appreciation? Still only up 2 dollars from when it sold off to 17 and change a few months ago.

Now looking at what happened last Christmas to Apple does not give me confidence. It was at 85 dollars on January 13th and sold off until the summer time.

So with Apples history of selling off after Christmas, the potential recession/lack of growth, competition in the market place and an options scandal where the CEO is hiring an attorney, etc., I would have to say that there are too many open issues to establish a long-term position.

If I was going to establish a long-term position, I would wait for a much greater sell-off below 70 bucks. Treat it like a ho and use it for a quick daytrade. Otherwise, I wouldnt long it like a value play or believe that the earnings call will bring this thing to 120.

Quote from HolyGrail:

Just remember panic brings opportunity. If you are going to short along with the panic get out quick because apple is about to announce blow out earnings in the next two weeks and all of this will be forgotten.
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