VXX......need some help from the experts

wildchild said:
Even if it is a tie, it wont last too long. If its a tie, then Trump wins. That is unless Paul Ryan tries to do something stupid, which is not out of the question, but the most likely scenario is that the House puts Trump in and it's over. If the House votes for someone else, then the fireworks will begin.
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I disagree with you on this. If it's not resolved on Tuesday i think it will get nasty.

It won't go to the house. It will go to recount with allegations of voter fraud and rigged elections.
 
CyJackX said:
Have you looked at any historical data already? The times where the S&P dumps 200 points fast I think would be pretty easy to find and compare.
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If you do look at it and run a linear regression you'll see that there's a relatively low r-squared (see page 27 of the paper at http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dsp...o C. Medeiros - Marcel Scharth.pdf?sequence=1). If you're not up on r-squared, it basically means that there isn't a clean "if SPX goes down 2% then VIX goes up 4%" type relationship. It's more like "if SPX goes down 2%, VIX may go anywhere from -1% to +7%" (numbers made up for illustrative purposes).
I haven't done a deep dive into autocorrelations, but I'm guessing that part of this is because it depends on what SPX has been doing in the past few sessions. If SPX was flat for weeks and all of a sudden goes up or down 2% in a session it will probably cause a bigger rise in VIX than if it's been going up and down 2% for weeks and this is another one of those days, or if it's been going up and down 4% for weeks and today it just moves 2%, which might actually make VIX fall.
 
You can get pretty far with simple concepts, such as a conjunction of the mean reversion in the underlying index against the forward curve of of the futures contracts.
 
Thanks for the replies guys

Looks like we got some serious guys in here that can run circles around me on this

I'm out of my water here. Ill dump the VXX tonight and buy dotm long dated vix calls.

At second glance, VXX appears much more complicated then I assumed. Jumped the gun and got emotional. Not enough time to figure it out. So just go with the options
 
achilles28 said:
Thanks for the replies guys

Looks like we got some serious guys in here that can run circles around me on this

I'm out of my water here. Ill dump the VXX tonight and buy dotm long dated vix calls.

At second glance, VXX appears much more complicated then I assumed. Jumped the gun and got emotional. Not enough time to figure it out. So just go with the options
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I don't know where the market will open tomorrow but I don't think the fbi comment will change the odds of Hillary at this point. But the market have reset almost 50percent from oct 28th as of now.
 
newwurldmn said:
I don't know where the market will open tomorrow but I don't think the fbi comment will change the odds of Hillary at this point. But the market have reset almost 50percent from oct 28th as of now.
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Ya I'll stay up all night so I can see where the options open tomorrow early am.

I don't want to pay more then 25 cents. Hopefully 15-20. Once I got my position on I'll share the dirt. It's already out there. Let's just say Hillary won't be taking office In janurary even if she wins election.
 
Was this thread just for the election volatility ? Curious to read your opinion on vix now..Do you see it at 11 in the next few months ? Cause I do!
 
dilbert003 said:
Was this thread just for the election volatility ? Curious to read your opinion on vix now..Do you see it at 11 in the next few months ? Cause I do!
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I have been on the sidelines. The Trump spike was way quicker than I thought, it only lasted a few hours. It dried up so quick, I never got to play it. No worries, there will be another opportunity.

If Vol stays low the VXX will continue to lose value, but the VIX at 11 is another thing. It certainly could happen, but from a historic standpoint, 11 is pretty dang low.
 
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